Here we go then, the final forecast (based on the YouGov polls conducted for ITV1 Wales). I should point out that in 2007 the final poll was pretty much spot on in vote shares (so here’s hoping)
Constituency (and change on 2007): Labour 47% (+15%) Conservatives 20% (-2%) Plaid Cymru 18% (-4%) Liberal Democrats 9% (-6%) Others 6% (-3%)
Regional (and change on 2007): Labour 43% (+13%) Conservatives 19% (-2%) Plaid Cymru 18% (-3%) Liberal Democrats 8% (-4%) Others 12% (-4%)Regional Others Breakdown (and change on 2007): United Kingdom Independence Party 7% (+3%) Greens 3% (n/c%) Others 3% (-2%)
Constituency Swing: 9% from Conservative to Labour, 10% from Plaid Cymru to Labour
Regional Swing: 8% from Conservative to Labour, 8% from Plaid Cymru to LabourSo a 9% swing from Con to Lab, 10% swing from Plaid to Lab as the headline (more than enough to get Labour their overall majority), can it be done on constituencies alone (or will they need regional list seats as well)?
Labour wins too close to call: Aberconwy (1.13% over Plaid), Cardiff North (5.37% over Con)
Conservative wins too close to call: Montgomeryshire (1.28% over Lib Dem)Liberal Democrat wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (5.70% over Con), Cardiff Central (1.67% over Lab)
Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Arfon (2.77% over Lab),
So after four weeks of polling, what are the too close to calls telling us. Well the clear story is that the Liberal Democrats are not going to suffer their wipeout (as Brecon and Cardiff Central are now coming back from the Conservatives and Labour), Plaid seem to be holding off the challenge from Labour (although Aberconwy could well go to recounts, so here goes nothing as they say:
Labour wins too close to call: Aberconwy (Plaid HOLD), Cardiff North (Labour GAIN),
Conservative wins too close to call: Montgomeryshire (Liberal Demorat HOLD)
Liberal Democrat wins too close to call: Brecon and Radnorshire (Liberal Democrat HOLD), Cardiff Central (Liberal Democrat HOLD),
Plaid Cymru wins too close to call: Arfon (Plaid Cymru HOLD),
Which gives us a constituency tally of:
Labour 30 (+6)
Plaid Cymru 6 (-1)Liberal Democrats 3 (n/c)
Conservatives 1 (-4)
Which of course brings us to the regional list allocations, with Labour just one seat off an overall majority. In 1999, Labour won one regional list seat in Mid and West Wales, in 2003 (when they also won 30 seats) they didn’t and in 2007 when they won 24 seats, they won two regional seats. Can Labour bend the electoral rules and win regional list seats when doing very well in the constituencies?
Regional List Allocations:South Wales Central
Conservatives win the first seat (Andrew Davies AM re-elected)
Plaid Cymru win the second seat (Leanne Wood AM re-elected)
Conservatives win the third seat (David Melding AM re-elected)
Plaid Cymru win the fourth seat (Chris Franks AM re-elected)
Mid and West Wales
Conservatives win the first seat (Nick Bourne AM re-elected)Conservatives win the second seat (Lisa Francis elected)
Conservatives win the third seat (Ian Harrison re-elected)
UKIP win the fourth seat (Christine Williams elected)
North Wales
Conservatives win the first seat (Mark Isherwood AM re-elected)Conservatives win the second seat (Antoinette Sandbach elected)
Conservatives win the third seat (Janet Haworth elected)
UKIP win the fourth seat (Nathan Gill elected)
South Wales East
Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Jocelyn Davies AM re-elected)Conservatives win the second seat (William Graham AM re-elected)
UKIP win the third seat (David Rowlands elected)
Liberal Democrats win the fourth seat (Veronica German AM re-elected)
South Wales West
Plaid Cymru win the first seat (Bethan Jenkins AM re-elected)Conservatives win the second seat (Suzy Davies elected)
Liberal Democrats win the third seat (Peter Black AM re-elected)
Plaid Cymru win the fourth seat (Dai Lloyd AM re-elected)
Forecast Composition of the National Assembly:
Constituencies: Labour 30 Plaid Cymru 6 Conservatives 1 Liberal Democrats 3
Regional List: Conservatives 10 Plaid Cymru 5 Liberal Democrats 2 United Kingdom Independence Party 3
Overall Totals: Labour 30 Conservatives 11 Plaid Cymru 11 Liberal Democrats 5 United Kingdom Independence Party 3
So after all the huffing and puffing, all the suggestions of a Liberal Democrat disaster, Labour getting a majority of 10 or greater, Plaid being hammered into third place overall, we have a completely hung Assembly just as in 2003. Which prompts the question what will Carwyn do? Will he carry on the One Wales agreement (41 – 19), or will he say to Kirsty Williams “You know, Rhodri and Michael had such a great relationship from 2000 to 2003, do you fancy starting one with me?” or will he decide (as the Presiding Officer is likely to be Lord Elis Thomas) that he can go it alone with a majority of 1? We shall have to wait and see!
Under Assembly Standing Orders the Non-voting PO and the Non-voting DPO must come one from the govt side and one from the oppositio side. So if DET becomes PO again then Labour will have to supply the DPO thus ruling out the advantage you suggest. There is no Labour majority to be gained from putting Dafydd Elis Thomas back into the PO's chair if Labour get 30 seats.
ReplyDeleteMy preference would be for Labour to take power and soldier on with a wafer-thin majority. The recent history of coalitions in Westminster and Cardiff has not been a positive one.
ReplyDeleteWhat about a UKIP Presiding Officer?
Do you think we'll ever have a referendum on whether to keep this curious regional seats system, where some people's votes count more than the votes of others?
Peter, didn't Labour do some kind of deal in 2003, so that the DPO came from the opposition as well, so they had a majority? Or am I mistaken?
ReplyDeleteHarry, I think you are over estimating the UKIP vote, I be very suprised if UKIP did well enough to become a group in the Assembly.
I am not over estimating anything. I am just purely taking the regional vote shares (as reporting by YouGov) as my base. If anyone is over estimating anything it is YouGov
ReplyDelete