Northern Ireland Votes

Stormont Parliament Building, home of the Assembly.


On the 5th of May 2011 Northern Ireland will go to the polls to elect its Assembly. Britain-Votes.co.uk will be covering this election. This Guide seeks to serve as a primer for that election. Whereas we cannot seek to cover every single element of the convoluted world of Northern Irish politics, this should hopefully act as a basic introduction. Please do not feel you have to read every section of this at once. Each section is designed so it can be read separately, so feel free to dip and out.

Contents.

1.      A Brief History and Context – the Origins of the Assembly
2.      Electoral and Political system
2.1.       The Electoral System
2.2.       The Executive and Cross-Community mechanisms
3.      Political parties
3.1.       British parties
3.2.       Unionist parties
3.3.       Nationalist parties
3.4.       ‘Other’ parties
4.      Major issues
5.      Recent election results
5.1.       Local election 2005
5.2.       European election 2009
5.3.       Westminster election 2010
6.      Current MLAs
7.      Resources



1. A Brief History and Context – the Origins of the Assembly



Ireland. Northern Ireland is shaded in blue, the three other
counties of Ulster are in brown.
Northern Ireland was formed by the partition of Ireland in 1922 from six counties of the traditional Irish province of Ulster. Historically Ulster had resisted English or British rule most strongly and so it was victim to a programme of colonialism designed to make the area more pro-British, leading to an in-built Protestant, pro-British majority. On its foundation Northern Ireland was given wide powers of autonomy within the UK and a Parliament and PM on the Westminster model. A FPTP electoral system, gerrymandered boundaries and a system of discrimination combined to ensure the dominant rule of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). Such was the level of this that the Catholic majority city of Derry/Londonderry had a Unionist controlled council. During the 1960s an Irish Catholic civil rights movement formed from the new Catholic middle classes. Law and order degenerated and eventually the British government stepped in and instituted direct rule – Northern Ireland would be ruled from the UK. Meanwhile ‘The Troubles’ raged on.

The next 30 years were marked by attempts to bridge the gap between communities with a background of terrorism and sectarian conflict. The first attempt, the ill-fated Sunningdale Agreement was in many ways an idea before its time, with power-sharing institutions designed to build a cross-community consensus. Following on from that there was a series of bilateral agreements between the Republic of Ireland and the UK based on the principles of adding an ‘Irish dimension’ to Northern Ireland rule and the idea of ‘rule by consent’ – that Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK. This was followed by the Peace Process in the 1990s and eventually the Good Friday Agreement which was approved by referendum with 71% of Northern Irish voting yes on a turnout of 81% and 94% of Southern Irish on a turnout of 56%.

The agreement itself gives the Republic a say in a variety of Northern Irish policy areas (mostly things like tourism where cross-border cooperation particularly makes sense) and sets up a series of power-sharing institutions designed to build consensus between communities. We shall cover most of the latter in the next section.

To this day much of Northern Ireland is still de facto segregated. With segregated schools, newspapers and leisure activities, but housing has been the most segregated institution. There is currently a big emphasis on breaking down this segregation in Northern Irish society.

When discussing Northern Ireland we talk of four groups. Unionists wish for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and work through the political system to do this, standing in elections and rejecting violence, sometimes the term Loyalist is used as well, but this term is usually used more for paramilitaries and those who embrace violence as a tool. Similarly Nationalists wish for Northern Ireland to become part of Ireland but generally use constitutional methods as well, whereas Republicans are more willing to embrace violence and reject the authority of the British state. It is also common to talks of Unionists and Nationalists as two separate communities.


2. Electoral and Political system





Northern Ireland is designed as a consociational democracy. This means that its political system has been designed to force compromise between Unionists and Nationalists parties. The theory runs that by forcing compromise between the representatives of these groups the groups themselves will come to be closer together. It has been deployed as a tactic in a series of divided societies, usually successfully. Switzerland, Austria and the Netherlands are favourite examples. Switzerland is probably the model which has been borrowed from most clearly. Generally the tenets are held to be proportional representation, large coalitions, and policy vetoes held by communities. As such, we shall start by exploring the electoral system.

2.1.           The Electoral System


An example STV ballot paper
The Northern Ireland Assembly uses the Single Transferable Vote system, which is also used in Southern Ireland, and for local councils and for electing Northern Irish Members of the European Parliament. The system uses the same eighteen constituencies as used to elect Northern Ireland’s Westminster MPs. Each of these elects 6 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). In constituencies candidates stand as individuals rather than on a party list and voters rank them depending upon their preference. So they put ‘1’ next to their first preference, ‘2’ next to their second, and so on. The votes are then counted up and a quota is established. The quota for each seat is 1/7th the total number of votes + 1. The reason it is set at this level is as there are six seats, and for mathematical and procedural reasons the divider needs to be one larger than the number of seats. If a candidate reaches the quota they are elected, a sample of their votes is taken and any votes over the quota are transferred to second preferences. If no candidate reaches the quota the candidate with the least votes is eliminated. In this way candidates are elected and eliminated in ‘rounds’ until all six seats are filled. This can be a somewhat complex concept, so in order to understand let’s see a STV election in action. As a result I have chosen the constituency of South Antrim to demonstrate STV in process. The results below are from the 2007 election, and show all 8 counts. Bolded numbers mean the candidate was elected at this point whereas a strikethrough means the candidate was eliminated for having too few votes. The quota for this election was 5,454 votes. Below the table is an extended explanation of the rounds in italics, feel free to read it if you do not understand the table. The table is also rather small, clicking it will give you a larger, more legible table.



Once the votes had been counted Mitchell McLaughlin of Sinn Féin and William McCrea of the Democratic Unionist Party had both passed the 5,454 votes hurdle and were thus immediately elected, however between them they had 1,428 votes that were ‘wasted’ (not needed for them to pass the quota) and so these were distributed to the other candidates. Most of McCrea’s votes went to his fellow DUPers while most of McLaughlin’s went to his fellow nationalists in the SDLP as he was the sole Sinn Féin candidate. On round 2 no one reached the quota so Peter Whitcroft of the Greens, Stephen O’Brien of the Conservatives and Marcella Delaney of the communist Worker’s Party were all eliminated. They were all eliminated as even if all their votes were counted together they would still not beat Robert McCartney of UKUP. The biggest recipient of votes was David Ford of the bi-communal Alliance Party, likely primarily from his fellow bi-communal Greens. On Round 3 still no one had reached the quota so McCartney and Stephen Nicholl of the UUP were eliminated, the chief benefiaries being the Unionist candidates, primarily the UUP. This was however enough to push David Ford of the Alliance slightly over the quota and he was therefore elected. As he was only a tiny amount over the quota the returning officer decided that his transfers would not affect the count, and so decided to leave them (they could always be counted again later if it was decided they would make a different. Noreen McClelland of the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party was eliminated. Almost all her voters went straight to Thomas Burns, also of the SDLP, taking him from the second worst number of voters to the second best. Nonetheless no one was actually elected so Danny Kinahan of the UUP was eliminated leading to a mighty transfer of votes to his running mate David Burnside. Burnside went way over the quota and most of his voters transferred to the two remaining DUP candidates. Trevor Clarke was deemed elected in Round 8, but the number of voters of his over the quota was much smaller than the number of voters the SDLP’s Thomas Burns led his fellow DUP candidate Mel Lucas by. Therefore Burns was also elected as even if all of Burns's and all of Ford's votes had transferred to Lucas she still would not have been able to beat him, and Mel Lucas was eliminated. All seats filled, the count ended.

There are several big advantages to this system. Firstly, it is relatively proportional, maintaining the balance of parties. It also maintains the balance of communities as votes transfer within communities, so voters do not have to fear splitting the community vote. Secondly MLAs secure election on an individual mandate rather than purely because of their party. There must have been some reason why more voters voted for Thomas Burns rather than Noreen McClelland even though they came from the same party. So there is a degree of competition within parties as well as between parties. Thirdly everyone has 6 MLAs and if they have an issue they have a choice of who to go to. This can be quite important in a divided community like Northern Ireland. A Catholic is unlikely to feel as comfortable talking to a DUP or UUP MLA as to a SDLP or Sinn Féin one. Another reason is that the system minimises ‘wasted votes’. Finally Northern Ireland already uses this system for other elections so locals are used to it. It was also hoped that the system would encourage voters to preference across community lines and therefore engender cross-community respect. So far this doesn’t appear to have happened, and in our example above we can see quite clearly that Unionist votes transfer to Unionists and Nationalist votes transfer to Nationalists by far the vast majority of the time.



2.2.           The Executive and Cross-Community mechanisms


As well as the electoral system several other mechanisms are in place to engender compromise. There is the nature of Northern Ireland’s government: The Executive in most systems the government is either directly elected (a Presidential system) or based upon confidence of a majority of parliament (parliamentarianism). Northern Ireland’s executive is instead based on proportional representation. Using the D’Hondt formula of proportional representation cabinet seats are apportioned on the basis of seats in the Assembly. At the time of speaking, therefore, the five largest parties are all represented in the Executive with 5 DUP ministers, 4 Sinn Féin ministers, 2 UUP ministers, 1 SDLP minister, and 1 Alliance minister. The largest party of the largest community receives the First Ministry, whereas the largest party of the smaller community receives the Deputy First Ministry and these ministries act as a dual monarchy of sorts, with pretty much equal power. Due to the precarious balance of the Assembly as a result (where a change of a few seats can easily mean a party losing a prized cabinet seat), and the difficulty of holding a by-election under STV anyway, vacant seats are filled by appointment by the party.

Additionally certain votes in the Assembly require a weighted majority to make sure a sufficient number of MLAs in both communities agree. This is either 50% of both communities, or 60% of all MLAs and more than 40% of MLAs from both communities.

The effect of this, of late, has been to create a de facto DUP-Sinn Fein grand coalition. Legislation cannot pass without both these parties agreeing to it, and they hold a majority of ministries. The UUP and SDLP have increasingly felt freezed out from government.

3. Political parties





Northern Ireland has a unique party system. The British parties organise here but only the Conservatives run candidates and they have met little success. Instead the Unionist/Nationalist divide is far more potent. These divides are far more important than the traditional left/right divide and indeed both major Nationalist parties are officially left of centre whereas both major Unionist parties are officially right of centre. Parties can be divided into three types ‘Unionist’ ‘Nationalist’ and ‘Other’.

3.1.           British parties


The British parties all organise here and have varying relationships with the political parties. Originally the Ulster Unionist Party was essentially the Northern Ireland section of the Conservative Party, but as the Conservative Party became more amenable to the peace process the UUP gradually withdrew from this party eventually severing ties in 1985. The two parties still sat in the same European parliamentary group though but the Conservative Party started running candidates in Northern Ireland though with zero real success. Two or three percent is the height of the party's success. In the last few years the Conservatives and UUP have established an electoral alliance with the snappy title of Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force, or UCUNF for short, which is a name designed by committee if I ever saw one. The alliance is a subject of much controversy within the UUP and will be covered later.

The Labour Party decided in 1913 not to organise in Northern Ireland due to its Nationalist sympathies, the hope was that the Irish Labour Party would take its place but instead a bi-communal party called the Northern Ireland Labour Party formed. NILP fell apart due to divides between Unionists and Nationlists in the late 60s, but the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party took the Labour Party whip in the Commons (and still does to this day), and therefore acted as its de facto referent. The party was forced to organise in Northern Ireland in 2004 by court order but it has been inactive.

The Liberal Party had a tiny section called the Ulster Liberal Party which operated in Northern Ireland, but when the Alliance Party was formed most of its members defected to that. There is a small Liberal Democrats wing in Northern Ireland but most of their members hold dual membership with the Alliance, which includes the Alliance leader, David Ford.

UKIP is running six candidates in this election. I personally think their choice of seats is odd - they are targeting several Catholic majority seats, and I don't really see any notable policies that are not already covered by the other Unionist parties, with the DUP and TUV covering the party's eurosceptism, and the Unionists all covering UKIP's problems with the Assembly in some form or another. Frankly their intervention seems more motivated by a desire to be seen as an all-UK party rather than its occasional reputation as an party primarily based in England.

Additionally the Green Party of Northern Ireland has links to the English and Scottish Green parties.

Finally the dominant Irish party Fianna Fail organises in Northern Ireland but it does not run candidates. Occasionally it is suggested that the party merge with the SDLP, or that the SDLP merge with the Irish Labour Party but there are serious barriers to this idea and it seems unlikely.


The Alliance has also recently begun establishing links with Ireland's new governing party, Fine Gael. Enda Kenny, then leader of the Irish opposition, spoke at the Alliance Party conference in January this year.

3.2.           Unionist parties


Unionism was once homogenised into one party – the UUP. Since the fall of the original form of government which institutionalised UUP rule, however, it has demonstrated a tendency to split into a multitude of parties, with the chief competition being between the UUP and the DUP. The UUP and DUP go through periods of vague alliance followed by periods of intense competition. These periods of competition often lead to competition for ‘ethnic intransigence’ as Unionist parties compete for who can refuse concessions to nationalists the most. The current state of Unionism is extremely fragmented and confused, with both major parties enduring huge challenges. As has been put by some, as of 2010 only 8 of Northern Ireland’s 18 MPs come from parties with ‘Unionist’ in the name. The Catholic minority is also growing in relative size and influence due to higher birth-rates and concessions from the British government, there is a ‘siege mentality’ in some quarters, a fear of becoming a minority in what Unionists see as their country.


Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). The UUP was once the dominant party of Northern Irish politics but today it is a shadow of its former self, with zero MPs (having held ten just ten years ago) at Westminster, only 18 MLAs, 1 MEP and 115 councillors. Historically within the UUP all Unionists gathered as a homogenous force. Not only was it dominant but it was truly hegemonic, controlling everything, and ruling Northern Ireland from 1921-1972. The UUP was a vital component of the machinery which kept Unionists in power constantly because if Unionism splintered openings to other parties would appear. However as the system of Unionist dominance collapsed the UUP began to splinter. Unlike the DUP which always maintained a position in favour of restoring devolution to Northern Ireland along majority lines the UUP was divided between those who desired power sharing arrangements and ‘integrationists’ who favoured integration of Northern Ireland into the UK and its becoming just another part of the UK, even down to sharing the same parties. In 1995 the party leadership passed to David Trimble who took a view that Unionists needed to take ownership of the peace process rather than simply trying to reject it. Trimble’s leadership was key in securing the Good Friday Agreement, but by sharing power with Sinn Féin without the IRA decommissioning weapons he alienated vast swathes of the Unionist community and damaged the UUP brand leading to it falling behind the DUP. With the DUP’s acceptance of power-sharing in 2007 the party has somewhat lost its distinctiveness and is in the midst of an identity crisis. The DUP’s acceptance of power-sharing meant that there was no longer a divide between a party that accepted and a party that rejected the arrangements. This was increased by its loss of its traditional position as the dominant party and has never had to deal with a lengthy period as the junior Unionist party before. Ideologically party members tend to profess a belief in liberal values and see NI as just another region of the UK, similar to Scotland or Wales, but nonetheless the party is still fairly conservative by British standards. Traditionally the party was linked to the Orange Order, but ties were broken in 2005. The party’s identity crisis led to the electoral pact with the Conservative Party for the 2009 European and 2010 Westminster elections.

Conservative and UUP electoral alliance logo.
On the Conservative side this was motivated by the desire to avoid a hung parliament, making Northern Ireland another battleground where it could secure seats. On the UUP’s side the hope appears to be to have gained a centrist, ‘civic unionist’ appeal, not linked to religion or ethnicity, by linking itself to the Cameron brand and disassociating itself from Protestantism. The loss of the UUP’s only MP has made this link a subject of immense debate within the party. The party’s sole MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon was seen to be closer to Labour than the Conservatives and the creation of the alliance caused her to resign from the party and run as an Independent. She won, leaving the UUP without MPs. David Cameron apparently wants the two parties to merge, but there appears to be little desire for a merger within the UUP rank-and-file. Alternatively there is talk of a potential merger with the DUP to form a new united Unionist Party. This is primarily motivated by fears that Sinn Féin could become Northern Ireland’s biggest party if Unionist division continues, and the level of philosophical difference between the UUP and DUP has certainly decreased. I watched a very good BBC Northern Ireland documentary on the prospects for a merger earlier this year, and some very high profile Northern Irish politicians have discussed the prospect, most notably perhaps Ian Paisley. Nonetheless significant barriers remain to a Unionist merger, and while it is the junior Unionist party now the UUP still has significant electoral support, though it does appear to be restricted to a tiny 'core vote' who vote UUP because they have always voted UUP.

New UUP leader Tom Elliott
After the electoral routing of the 2010 election the UUP’s leader Sir Reg Empey took blame for the defeat and stood down. He was replaced by Tom Elliott, who was seen as the ‘establishment’ traditionalist candidate, who beat the modernist ‘progressive’ candidate Basil McCrea. A former member of the Ulster Defence Regiment of the British Army, and a senior Orangeman Elliott has garnered controversy by saying he wouldn’t attend gay pride marches or Gaelic Athletic Association matches. He has also said he does envision a single Unionist party and has come out against the electoral link with the Conservative Party. His greatest immediate challenge is to prevent the UUP coming fourth in the election.


Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). After decades of playing second fiddle in the Unionist community to the UUP the DUP is now the dominant party in Unionism and in Northern Ireland. It currently holds eight seats at Westminster, a single MEP, 36 MLAs, 182 councillors and the First Ministry. The DUP has been most associated with Reverend Ian Paisley who the party formed around, and he led the party from its foundation in 1971 until 2008. Paisley was moderator of the Free Presbyterian Church, a fundamentalist Christian church. It is different to mainstream Protestantism and places a strong concentration on being saved and conversion, in many ways it more closely resembles an American Evangelist church rather than an Anglican or Presbyterian one. The DUP began in 1971 opposing attempts to reform Northern Ireland’s system of governance to be more open to Catholics. The DUP therefore gained support from urban working class loyalists and rural Protestants receptive to its evangelism. The party had a strong anti-Catholic streak. As a MEP in 1988 Paisley was present for Pope John Paul II’s speech to the European Parliament, Paisley, always one for subtlety screamed “I denounce you as the Antichrist!” and held up a poster saying “Pope John Paul II ANTICHRIST”. Paisley never hid the fact that his Unionism was born of a highly religious conservative viewpoint, and saw concessions to the Catholics as appeasement.

Infamous photo of the 'Chuckle Brothers', Ian Paisley (left)
and Sinn Fein Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness
Paisley’s long time deputy, Peter Robinson, persuaded Paisley to secularise somewhat however, allowing it to expand its base, but party membership and affiliation is still tied up in membership of the Free Presbyterian Church. There are said to be two factions to the DUP, a rural, fundamentalist Protestant, ‘old guard’ and an urbanite well educated ‘new guard’. The party membership is said to be younger, more populist and more linked to fundamentalist Protestantism than the UUP membership. The DUP responded to the Good Friday Agreement with a great deal of reticence. They originally saw the agreement as the first step towards a United Ireland and voiced concerns about power-sharing with Sinn Féin when the IRA had still not decommissioned weapons. They campaigned against the agreement in the referendum and when it passed adopted a ‘half-in/half-out’ stance, taking two seats on the Executive, but refusing to go to cabinet meetings and cycling the positions amongst their members. This stance turned out to be very electorally productive for the DUP and as they became the dominant party. More pragmatic members began to see the advantages of power-sharing and the DUP changed its position towards support with amendments. The decommissioning of weapons by the IRA and a few amendments to the Good Friday Agreement in the St. Andrews Agreement led the DUP to accept power sharing, and it won the 2007 Assembly elections. Ian Paisley became First Minister but a combination of a scandal involving his son, Ian Paisley Junior, and a close working relationship with his Sinn Féin deputy Martin McGuinness (the two were nicknamed the ‘Chuckle Brothers’ due to pictures of them laughing together) undercut his authority. He stepped down in 2008, with questions over whether he jumped before he was pushed. Paisley was replaced by Peter Robinson who had been his deputy in the party since 1980, he was elected unanimously, the DUP not being a party that likes radical change on the whole!


Scandal hit DUP leader Peter Robinson
Robinson’s time in office has primarily been marked by two major scandals involving him and his wife Iris, who was a MLA, MP, and DUP health spokesman. Firstly they both got tumbled up in the expenses scandal. Together they were reported to have claimed Robinson’s time in office has primarily been marked by two major scandals involving him and his wife Iris, who was a MLA, MP, and DUP health spokesman. Firstly they both got tumbled up in the expenses scandal. Together they were reported to have claimed £571,939.41 with a further £150,000 being paid to family members in their employ. Other DUP MPs also took big hits to their stature with deputy leader Nigel Dodds having the highest claims of any MP in Northern Ireland, ranking 13th in the UK. 

Second is ‘Irisgate’. Irisgate refers to a series of revelations stemming from the admission that Iris Robinson had attempted to commit suicide in 2009. As it turned out this was due to depression brought on by an affair with a 19 year old lover (about forty years younger than Iris). Iris had also procured two loans for her lover so that he could open a restaurant, the loans were not properly declared and Iris was a councillor on the council which rented the restaurant to her lover. Iris is known to have been questioned by the police, and Peter stood down as First Minister for six weeks so he could fight the claims. A measure of how Unionist opinion feels about the scandal can perhaps be seen by the fact that of the nine DUP MPs Peter Robinson was the only one to lose his seat in May this year, losing it, as he did, on a swing of 22.9% to Naomi Long of the Alliance Party who had never before won a seat. The DUP has also lost in the popular vote to Sinn Féin in both the 2009 European Election and the 2010 UK election. However, after an incredibly difficult time for Robinson he's bounced back. Robinson should not be underestimated: he possesses a sharp tactical mind. Some have suggested, too, that Robinson has actually become a better politician because of 'Irisgate', making him more humble and more in touch. He has successfully rallied his troops around him. 




Progressive Unionist Party (PUP). PUP is the smallest Unionist party to have won seats at the 2007 election holding just one MLA, and two councillors. PUP is notable on several levels. Firstly the party is the only Unionist party that is left-of-centre, with PUP holding a socialist or social democratic viewpoint. Secondly the party is linked to the Unionist Volunteer Force (UVF) loyalist paramilitary group. Its base is in the working class loyalist neighbourhoods of East Belfast. Recently the party has become divided between those who have never been linked to the UVF and wish to end the link, and those who support retaining the link. The party’s single MLA and leader, Dawn Purvis, was in the former group, as was its deputy leader. A murder in June 2010 was attributed to the group and Purvis and a large number of the leadership of the party walked out. Purvis now sits as an Independent Unionist, and has not ruled out joining either the UUP or DUP. The new leader is Brian Ervine, brother of former leader David Ervine, Ervine insists that the party membership has grown of late and that it will move forward but the party was not on the greatest ground before this summer as it was, and it will be lucky to secure a seat at Stormont come May.


Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). The youngest Unionist party, the TUV was founded after the last Assembly election in December 2007 by members of the DUP who opposed power-sharing with Sinn Féin. By far its most notable member is its leader Jim Allister who had been the DUP’s single MEP. Since then the party has had mixed electoral success. Its greatest success was the 2009 European elections where Allister ran as the TUV candidate and gained 13.5% of the vote, not enough to win a seat, but promising. The 2010 Westminster elections were disappointing however. They secured only 3.9% of the vote, with only Allister gaining more than 10% of the vote, getting 16.8% in Ian Paisley’s old seat of Antrim North. The party has created controversy by referring to Gaelic as ‘leprecaun language’, and its only real asset appears to be Allister. The party’s position at the extremes also makes it less likely it will receive preferences from DUP and UUP voters, and the main effect of it may be to drain support from the larger Unionist parties. The party has had few real electoral tests so it has hard to get a handle on its support. It is also arguably a one-man party, with only Allister really providing any prominence.

3.3.           Nationalist parties


Nationalism is much less divided than Unionism, basically separated into two parties, with a clearer ideological divide – the ‘constitutionally nationalist’ Social Democratic and Labour Party and the ‘Republican’ Sinn Féin. What other nationalists do exist are mostly dissident anti-agreement Republicans such as those of Republican Sinn Féin, they do have notable support in some areas, but not enough to win seats.

During the years of institutionalised Unionist dominance the primary representative of Nationalism was the Nationalist Party. The Nationalists were more a series of individual political machines than a coherent party and it fell apart during the 1960s. Both the SDLP and the modern format of Sinn Féin were formed in 1970, and they have been the representatives of the two wings of Nationalist thought ever since.


Sinn Féin (SF) which translates as ‘We Ourselves’, is currently the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland, holding 5 MPs, 1 MEP (winning the most votes in 2009), 28 MLAs, 127 councillors and the Deputy First Ministry. An all-Ireland party, Sinn Féin holds seats in the House of Commons and the Irish Parliament, the Dáil, where it has 14 TDs. The original Sinn Féin was founded in 1905 and the party was instrumental in the foundation of the Irish Free State, since then the party has been subject to an immense series of splits. Both major Irish parties were founded from Sinn Féin, but the current Sinn Féin was founded in 1970 from a split between ‘Official’ Sinn Féin and ‘Provisional’ Sinn Féin, the latter being the party we’re interested in. The party is generally agreed to be the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, the infamous Irish terrorist group, and the two share overlapping personnel, including the leadership, with its two best known leaders, Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness both generally held to be, or to have been, amongst the IRA’s leadership. Adams denies these claims; McGuiness admits to have being a member but denies continued membership. Ideologically the party combines a mix of left-wing stances with Irish nationalism. It sits in the European United Left group in the European Parliament with Europe’s far-left parties (including several Communist parties) and, while it stands for election at Westminster SF MPs ‘abstain’, that is to say that they do not take their seats due to their refusal to recognise Westminster’s authority over Northern Ireland. However Sinn Féin MPs still do constituency work for their constituents and claim expenses in order to do that (a subject of some controversy in the expenses scandal). Many of the party’s policies are still designed to be implemented on an all-Ireland basis. However, with the IRA ceasefire in 1994 Sinn Féin entered the peace process and its willingness to engage was a vital cog in the Good Friday Agreement’s success. Nonetheless the party remained controversial amongst Unionists until the IRA decommissioned all weapons. As it has engaged in the political process more and more and shown a greater willingness to compromise it has gone from strength to strength, and it won the most votes in the 2009 European election and the 2010 Westminster election.

Sinn Fein chief negotiator and Deputy First Minister
Martin McGuinness (left)
and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams (right)
The party’s leader and best known figure is Gerry Adams, but due to the party’s status as a transnational entity with seats in both the North and South he provides overall leadership to the entity as a whole. The party’s most senior politician in the Assembly, therefore, is Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness who was previously the party’s chief negotiator for Good Friday. McGuinness is surprisingly popular and a 2009 poll suggested that the former IRA man was the most popular member of the Executive, even enjoying positive approval amongst Unionists. Sinn Féin’s biggest challenge in preparation for May is to reconcile its Socialist principles with the need to compromise on cuts to Stormont’s budget. Recently the party has been said to be ‘at war’ with DUP Finance Minister Sammy Wilson, taking a position of resistance to British government cuts, but the party has reconciled itself to dealing with the shortfall and has proposed a series of tax rises and minor cuts to deal with it. Sinn Féin’s aim is clearly to win the First Ministry on May 5th, and it is not impossible that they will do that, but it is far from a ‘sure thing’.


Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). The SDLP is the smaller, more moderate nationalist party. Currently it holds 3 MPs, 16 MLAs and 101 councillors. The party was formed in 1970 from a merger of several Nationalist and centre-left elements. Originally there was some disagreement over whether the party should be primarily a nationalist party or a social democratic party like the British Labour Party, but it has settled down to being mostly the former, though it is social democratic also. The SDLP historically played an incredibly important role in the peace process as the representative of moderate nationalism. It established many of the principles that came to be adopted, and in many ways the Good Friday Agreement is a fulfilment of its long-term objectives. While it supports a United Ireland, its support is contingent upon the basis of the ‘principle of consent’, that a majority must support unification, and supports the retention of the current power-sharing institutions if this comes to pass. The SDLP was also important in bringing Sinn Féin to the table, and legendary leader John Hume did a great deal of help to his cause by building a complex but surprisingly cordial relationship with Ian Paisley – the two men even apparently shared boxing day dinner around Paisley’s house one year in the 1990s. Recently it has been reducing in size, albeit less drastically than the UUP. The fulfilment of its constitutional aims has left the SDLP lacking a distinctive constitutional stance, and Sinn Féin is a better vehicle for discontent Catholics, as the party less likely to compromise. 

SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie
However, unlike the UUP the party does not suffer from a complete voiding of its ideological bearings, there is still a divide between Sinn Féin and the SDLP has cultivated a support base in the educated Catholic liberal middle classes, especially amongst so-called ‘Catholic unionists’ and some have claimed the party is ‘post-nationalist’. There is also a portion of the Catholic electorate who sees Sinn Féin as completely tainted due to its historic association with the IRA. On bread and butter issues it often has trouble differentiating itself from Sinn Féin however, with both being left-of-centre high spending parties. Nonetheless it has a doggedly independent streak; in the 2010 election the SDLP was the only party to stand a candidate in every Northern Irish seat in an election marked by electoral pacts. The SDLP’s goal for the election is no doubt to come third in terms of seats. It beat the UUP in votes in 2007 (by 0.3%) but the UUP got two more seats. With UUP troubles the SDLP should be able to come third, but this remains to be seen.

Since February 2010 the SDLP’s leader has been Margaret Ritchie, who until May was the SDLP’s sole member of the Executive (she held the Social Development ministry). She is the first female leader of a major Northern Irish party. Ritchie is a dependable, ambitious leader, though her aim of being First Minister appears to be slightly lofty. Under her watch the SDLP has made tentative steps towards becoming a more clearly middle class party. Under Ritchie the party performed beyond expectations in May 2010 and the party has a few strong hopes of picking up seats in May 2011, though it shouldn't be overly ambitious.

3.4.           ‘Other’ parties


The final group and smallest group of parties is the ‘other’ group. Currently only 9 of Northern Ireland’s 108 MLAs count themselves as ‘Other’, 7 Alliance MLAs, 1 Green and an Independent. The Alliance, in particular, likes to complain about the Good Friday agreement structures complaining that they institutionalise segregation and that cross-community parties are disenfranchised (as they have a much smaller effect in terms of ‘cross-community’ voting etc.) For all intents and purposes these parties are cross-community, winning votes from both Unionists and Nationalists.

Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI). The Alliance was formed in 1970 by reformist liberal Unionists who had defected from the UUP. While originally moderately Unionist the party has become a bi-communal anti-sectarian party which draws support from both communities. It also has certain liberal tendencies, and there is a slight divide in the party between those who put the emphasis on liberalism and those who put the emphasis on anti-sectarianism. The party has placed an emphasis on forging a single Northern Irish identity, reforming institutions and on cross-community accommodation. The Alliance has struggled to win votes under Good Friday as the nature of the system encourages competition between as well as within blocks, but the STV electoral system has been good for it as it will often win seats from transfers. The party bottomed out in 2003 with 3.7% of the vote and just six seats, however since then it has been on a slow rise, going to 5.2% and 7 seats in 2007, and stunningly defeating Peter Robinson in Belfast East in May 2010. This was likely a combination of Robinson’s troubles but also of the hard work in the area of Naomi Long, the party’s candidate. 

Alliance's first elected MP Naomi Long (left)
and David Ford, Alliance leader and Justice
Minister (right)
The party is often called upon when compromise candidates for certain posts are required too. For example it held the Assembly speakership originally and in 2010 party leader David Ford was given the Justice Ministry, particularly controversial due to the controversy associated with the police force in Northern Ireland. This was despite the fact that strictly speaking the ministry should have gone to the SDLP. In exchange for taking the ministry Ford demanded a new policy on ending sectarianism.  The Alliance has however suffered from a regionalisation of its support, with its support almost entirely restricted to urban areas. However there is potential for growth in its support here from the more anti-sectarian youth and from new immigrant and ethnic minority populations who have no ties to either community. The Alliance’s South Belfast MLA Anna Lo, for example, is the first elected East Asian politician in the UK. Several MLAs are on dodgy ground being dependent on transfers for their seats but the party is quietly hopeful for 2011.


Green Party of Northern Ireland. The Northern Irish Greens are technically an autonomous section of the Irish Green Party but have strong bilateral links with the English and Scottish Greens. They scored their first success in 2007 when Brian Wilson won their first seat in North Down. Wilson, a former Alliance Party member turned popular Independent councillor was essentially catapulted into his position on the back of a strong personal vote, however he was only elected on the last count.


There is also a single independent MLA who sits in this group called Kieran Deeny in West Tyrone. Deeny, a former GP, is a single issue candidate who runs on a campaign of protecting the local hospital. His vote is cross-community and benefitted from the Alliance not running a candidate in his constituency in 2007, however there is speculation that he will be standing down at this election.

That clears up all the political parties and movers and shakers in Northern Ireland.


4. Major issues




There are several major issues at this election. Briefly they are:


Budget cuts. Northern Ireland has the highest proportion of public spending of GDP of any region in the UK at around 30.5% of GDP, and as such it has been targeted for cuts by the Coalition government in Westminster. Miraculously the UK government has managed to unite all the NI parties: they are all opposed and all feel betrayed! The actual cut is fairly small in some respects, and the righteous indignation is likely a facet of the fact that the Assembly does not have tax powers, if the Assembly was responsible for taxation it might be slightly more concerned. When the 2011 budget was presented to the Assembly 


Economic growth. Northern Ireland has some of the lowest living standards in the UK. Originally the richest part of Ireland, years of inter-communal fighting have retarded economic growth. How to grow Northern Ireland’s economy is therefore an important debate. The DUP has placed a particular concern on competing with Ireland and has lobbied the British government to have a special exemption to lower Corporation Tax to beat Ireland’s famously low tax rate. In exchange for this however Northern Ireland will have to agree to a cut to government funding which is less likely to be popular with Sinn Féin and the SDLP.


Anti-sectarianism. Reducing sectarianism is obviously a major issue in Northern Ireland, and the Executives recent consultation has been criticised for lacking vision. This is likely to become something of a live issue as the election gets closer in my view.


Political Reform. The current political system has been criticised for being too big (Northern Ireland has 18 MPs, 108 MLAs and 22 councils for a province of less than 2 million). For representatives holding positions in multiple bodies, especially after 'Irisgate' as a major cause of abuse was Iris Robinson's 'triple mandate', and against the current governmental guidelines which are criticised for creating inefficient argumentative government, for not providing any real opposition, and for deepening segregation by forcing politics along Unionist/Nationalist lines. The first two have a broad consensus and are easily fixed. It is difficult to see how the governmental arrangements can be changed without risking excluding a large number of voters in one community or the other.


Northern Ireland Water Crisis In late 2010/early 2011 there was a massive number of burst water pipes in Northern Ireland Water supplies, leaving some towns cut off from water for up to 12 days. Northern Ireland and Scotland are the only regions of the UK to still have state-owned water suppliers. The crisis bought into focus institutional issues in the arrangements for Northern Ireland Water, and so I suspect this will become a minor issue in the campaign.

5. Recent election results

As a barometer of the parties various popularities this section includes tables pertaining to the most recent elections in Northern Ireland.

5.1.           Local election 2005


The most recent local elections were held in 2005, and local elections will be held simultaneously with the Assembly election in May. As a result these results are not very reflective of recent trends but they have been included for completion. These elections were held under STV and thus vote percentages are first preferences.

Party
2001 result
2005 result
Gain
2001 seats
2005 seats
Gain
DUP
21%
30%
9%
131
182
51
Sinn Féin
21%
23%
2%
108
126
18
UUP
23%
18%
-5%
154
115
-39
SDLP
19%
17%
-2%
117
101
-16
Alliance
5%
5%
0
28
30
2
Greens
N/A
1%
1%
N/A
3
3
PUP
2%
1%
-1%
4
2
-2
Independents
7%
4%
-3%
35
21
-14
Others
2%
0.8%
-1.2%
3
2
-1

The 2005 elections were a great success for the DUP, but this was when they were in the ascendant, a full 6 years before the Assembly elections.

5.2.           European election 2009


The 2009 European election is more recent and perhaps a better demonstration of trends. 3 STV seats were up for grabs across NI.
Party
Candidate
2004 result
2009 result
Gain
2004 seats
2009 seats
Seat
Sinn Féin
Bairbre de Brun
26.3%
26.0%
-0.3%
1
1
1st
DUP
Diane Dodds
31.9%
18.2%
-13.7%
1
1
3rd
UUP/Conservatives
Jim Nicholson
16.6%
17.1%
0.5%
1
1
2nd
SDLP
Alban Maginness
15.9%
16.2%
0.3%
0
0

TUV
Jim Allister
N/A
13.6%
13.6%
0
0

Alliance
Ian Parsley
N/A
5.5%
5.5%
0
0

Greens
Steven Agnew
0.9%
3.2%
2.3%
0
0


The 2009 results were a worry for Unionists and the DUP in particular. Sinn Féin topped the poll and got the first seat, though it should be noted that it actually had a small loss in votes. The DUP’s loss is almost the same as its loss to the TUV but they were running Allister who had a high personal vote. The Alliance and Greens were also seen to have done well. The UUP alliance with the Conservatives had almost zero discernable effect.

5.3.           Westminster election 2010


The 2010 election is the most recent election in Northern Ireland and probably the best measure of the state of Northern Irish opinion. There are a few issues however. Firstly not every party contested every seat, in fact only the SDLP and the Alliance did, also this election took place using FPTP rather than STV which no doubt has effects on voting behaviour. Nonetheless we shall be using 2010 election data in our seat projections because the 18 constituencies are the same.

Party
Contested seats
2005 result
2010 result
Gain
2005 seats
2010 seats
Gain
Sinn Féin
17
24.3%
25.5%
1.2%
5
5
0
DUP
16
33.7%
25.0%
-8.7%
9
8
-1

SDLP
18
17.5%
16.5%
-1.0%
3
3
0

UUP/Conservatives
17
16.8%
15.2%
-1.6%
1
0
-1

Alliance
18
3.9%
6.3%
2.4%
0
1
1

TUV
10
N/A
3.9%
3.9%
N/A
0
0

Greens
4
N/A
0.5%
0.5%
N/A
0
0

Others
-
2.4%
7.1%
4.7%
0
1
1
IND


Sinn Féin once again topped the poll, albeit only by the skin of its teeth and with the DUP winning the most seats. It is possible that this pattern could be repeated in 2011 given that STV is not fully proportional and this may lead to a firestorm over the allocation of the First Ministry. The DUP result was embarrassing, and the UUP/Conservative alliance failed to provide dividends with them losing their sole seat to former MP Lady Sylvia Hermon, who had stood as an Independent. The SDLP was seen to have done well despite a small dip in its vote, securing its 3 seats and the Alliance had a stellar election, winning its first seat. The TUV failed to make a mark in most of the 10 seats it contested.


6. Current MLAs

Below is a list of all 18 constituencies and the MLAs that represent them. MLAs that are still serving but who have ruled out standing in May 2011 are marked with a strikethrough through their name. MLAs who have already resigned from the Assembly are marked with italics, their replacements are at the bottom of the each list and also marked by italics. MLAs that have left their parties are represented by /IND after the party and a colour change. MLAs are listed by primary vote, the round the MLA was elected in is important as the longer it takes to elect a candidate the more at risk they are, and the more dependent on transfers from other parties they will be.



Northern Ireland constituencies. The same constituencies
are used for Westminster as for Stormont.



Constituency
MLA
Party
1st Pref Vote
Round Elected





Sammy Wilson
DUP
22.5%
1
George Dawson
DUP
13.9%
2
Sean Neeson
Alliance
10.4%
10
Roy Beggs Jr.
UUP
10.2%
12
David Hilditch
DUP
9.1%
3
Ken Robinson
UUP
6.3%
13
Alastair Ross
DUP
N/A
N/A





Ian Paisley
DUP
17.4%
1
Daithi McKay
SF
15.9%
1
Ian Paisley Junior
DUP
13.8%
2
Mervyn Storey
DUP
11.7%
8
Robert Coulter
UUP
11.4%
7
Declan O'Loan
SDLP
7.4%
10
Paul Frew
DUP
N/A
N/A






Mitchel McLaughlin
SF
16.5%
1
William McCrea
DUP
15.8%
1
David Ford
Alliance
13.1%
5
David Burnside
UUP
11.8%
7
Trevor Clarke
DUP
11.3%
8
Thomas Burns
SDLP
7.1%
8
Danny Kinahan
UUP
N/A
N/A
Paul Girvan
DUP
N/A
N/A





Peter Robinson
DUP
19%
1
Naomi Long
Alliance
18.8%
1
Reg Empey
UUP
14%
3
Wallace Brown
DUP
10.7%
11
Dawn Purvis
PUP/IND
10.3%
11
Robin Newton
DUP
7.9%
11
Chris Lyttle
Alliance
N/A
N/A





Nigel Dodds
DUP
23.5%
1
Gerry Kelly
SF
18.2%
1
Carál Ní Chuilín
SF
12.4%
4
Fred Cobain
UUP
8.4%
11
Nelson McCausland
DUP
8.3%
11
Alban Maginness
SDLP
7.4%
10
William Humphrey
DUP
N/A
N/A





Jimmy Spratt
DUP
15.7%
1
Alasdair McDonnell
SDLP
14.4%
1
Anna Lo
Alliance
12.6%
8
Alex Maskey
SF
13.2%
10
Carmel Hanna
SDLP
12.4%
10
Michael McGimpsey
UUP
8.7%
10
Conall McDevitt
SDLP
N/A
N/A




Gerry Adams
SF
17.8%
1
Sue Ramsey
SF
14%
2
Paul Maskey
SF
12.9%
6
Jennifer McCann
SF
12.6%
6
Fra McCann
SF
12.6%
6
Alex Attwood
SDLP
9%
6
Pat Sheehan
SF
N/A
N/A




Alex Easton
DUP
16.1%
1
Peter Weir
DUP
11.0%
10
Stephen Farry
Alliance
10.2%
7
Leslie Cree
UUP
9.6%
10
Brian Wilson
Green
9.2%
10
Alan McFarland
UUP/IND
7.3%
10




Caitriona Ruane
SF
13.7%
7
Margaret Richie
SDLP
12.7%
8
P. J. Bradley
SDLP
12.3%
9
Jim Wells
DUP
12.0%
10
Willie Clarke
SF
11.1%
8
John McCallister
UUP
9.6%
11




Arlene Foster
DUP
15.4%
1
Michelle Gildernew
SF
15.1%
1
Tom Elliott
UUP
14.2%
2
Gerry McHugh
SF/IND
11%
8
Maurice Morrow
DUP
10.1%
8
Tommy Gallagher
SDLP
9.6%
7




William Hay
DUP
17.0%
1
Mark Durkan
SDLP
15.6%
1
Martina Anderson
SF
13.2%
6
Raymond McCartney
SF
10.5%
8
Pat Ramsey
SDLP
7.9%
10
Mary Bradley
SDLP
6.5%
10
Pol Callaghan
SDLP
N/A
N/A





Jeffrey Donaldson
DUP
23.4%
1
Paul Butler
SF
12.2%
6
Basil McCrea
UUP
9.6%
7
Trevor Lunn
Alliance
9%
7
Jonathan Craig
DUP
8.3%
8
Edwin Poots
DUP
8.3%
9
Paul Givan
DUP
N/A
N/A





Gregory Campbell
DUP
20.2%
1
Francie Brolly
SF
13.2%
6
George Robinson
DUP
11.8%
4
David McClarty
UUP/IND
8.5%
9
Adrian McQuillan
DUP
7.8%
9
John Dallat
SDLP
7.8%
8
Billy Leonard
SF
N/A
N/A




Martin McGuinness
SF
18.2%
1
Ian McCrea
SDLP
17.2%
1
Francie Molloy
SF
14.9%
1
Michelle O'Neill
SF
14.5%
1
Patsy McGlone
SDLP
11.2%
5
Billy Armstrong
UUP
10.8%
7




Conor Murphy
SF
15%
1
Cathal Boylan
SF
14.3%
1
Danny Kennedy
UUP
13.1%
5
William Irwin
DUP
12.9%
5
Mickey Brady
SF
12.8%
4
Dominic Bradley
SDLP
10.7%
7






Iris Robinson
DUP
16.4%
1
Jim Shannon
DUP
13.3%
6
Kieran McCarthy
Alliance
11.3%
10
Simon Hamilton
DUP
10.8%
14
David McNarry
UUP
10.3%
8
Michelle McIlveen
DUP
9.6%
14
Jonathan Bell
DUP
N/A
N/A
Simpson Gibson
DUP
N/A
N/A




Barry McElduff
SF
16.8%
1
Pat Doherty
SF
16.2%
1
Claire McGill
SF
11.5%
3
Thomas Buchanan
DUP
11.2%
6
Allan Bresland
DUP
10.2%
7
Kieran Deeny
Independent
9.1%
7





John O'Dowd
SF
18.0%
1
David Simpson
DUP
15.9%
1
Sam Gardiner
UUP
12.0%
9
Dolores Kelly
SDLP
10.9%
8
Stephen Moutray
DUP
8.5%
11
George Savage
UUP
5.1%
12
Sydney Anderson
DUP
N/A
N/A


7. Resources

I highly recommend the following for more information:
Slugger O’Toole which is by far and away the best blog about Northern Irish politics I’ve seen. Its biases are, if anything, a general pro-reconciliation one rather than a staunch Unionist or Nationalist one. 96% of MLAs are said to read it, and not all of them can be wrong!
The Belfast Telegraph - Major Northern Irish newspaper, generally conservative and Unionist in outlook but relatively unbiased.
The Irish News – Another major Northern Irish newspaper, generally Nationalist in outlook, but also relatively unbiased.
Open Unionism – Unionist blog.
For the more election concerned amongst you the ARK Election database has a ridiculous level of detail about Northern Irish elections.
The Politics of Northern Ireland by Joanne McEvoy is a fantastic book on the subject, short but well written and instructive.