Northern Ireland Votes: Mid Ulster

It may not surprise readers to learn that Mid Ulster sits pretty close to the geographic centre of Northern Ireland. The seat sits across county boundaries – in the North it takes in part of Londonderry, though the majority of the seat is in County Tyrone. Mid Ulster has a long history of being on the frontline of sectarian conflict which dates back to the 17^th century, aided by economic conflict; with the better land in this rural constituency usually held by Protestants. While there are mixed areas this is a very segregated constituency on the whole too. Demographic changes and a huge boundary change in 1997 have made this seat very Catholic however and the seat was 65% Catholic to 34% Protestant in 2001. Assuming demographic trends have continued, the seat is likely even more Catholic dominated than that. It may not be a surprise to know, therefore, that this is a very Sinn Fein dominated seat. Otherwise, the seat is a typical rural seat, fairly average economically, and with only seven towns with more than 1,000 people.

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
Martin McGuinness	Sinn Fein	52.0%	+4.4%
Ian McCrea	DUP	14.4%	-9.1%
Tony Quinn	SDLP	14.3%	-3.2%
Sandra Overend	UUP/Con	11.0%	+0.4%
Walter Millar	TUV	7.3%	+7.3%
Ian Butler	Alliance	1.0%	+1.0%

Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness has been the MP here since 1997, and held this seat rather easily last May, increasing his already decent majority to an even bigger extent.

MLA	Party	First Pref	Round Elected
Martin McGuinness	Sinn Fein	18.2%	1
Ian McCrea	DUP	17.2%	1
Francie Molloy	Sinn Fein	14.9%	1
Michelle O'Neill	Sinn Fein	14.5%	1
Patsy McGlone	SDLP	11.2%	5
Billy Armstrong	UUP	10.8%	7

Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Kate Lagan	SDLP	6.2%	7
Walter Millar	UKUP	2.7%	5
Anne Forde	DUP	2.3%	6
Brendan McLaughlin	Independent (Republican Sinn Fein)	1.0%	4
Margaret Mitchell	Alliance	0.5%	4
Harry Hutchinson	Independent	0.4%	4

Overall Result

Party	Vote	Seats
Sinn Fein	47.6%	3
DUP	19.5%	1
SDLP	17.5%	1
UUP	10.8%	1
UKUP	2.7%	0
Alliance	0.5%	0

The Incumbents

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein) is the most powerful Sinn Fein politician in Northern Ireland, with the arguable exception of leader Gerry Adams. A former member of the IRA, it is unclear just how involved McGuinness was in the group and to what rank he climbed. He was an IRA commander in Derry but has, at times, been accused of being a powerful IRA leader, even the ‘IRA godfather of godfathers’, something he denies. What is known, however, is that he was convicted in 1973 on explosives and ammunitions charges and imprisoned for six months, declaring himself to a proud member of the IRA in the trial. Whatever the truth it has been an amazing transformation for the man to go from IRA member to Deputy First Minister. He was first involved in secret negotiations with the British government in 1972 and by the 1990s was Sinn Fein’s ‘Chief Negotiator’ for Good Friday. Since then he was Education Minister and once Sinn Fein overtook the SDLP he became Deputy First Minister. In this role he has often enjoyed high approval ratings, even positive approval amongst Unionists. A politician of McGuinness’s high standing, in a seat like this is sure to be re-elected.

Ian McCrea (DUP) replaced his father, William McCrea, as the MLA for this seat in 2007. William McCrea had moved to South Antrim, leaving this seat open for his son. He has also been a councillor in Magherafelt since 2001. While this a Nationalist dominated seat the DUP vote is more than enough to elect a MLA and fairly solid. McCrea should hold on easily.

Francie Molloy (Sinn Fein) has a fine pedigree in Republican electoral politics. During the 1981 hunger strike he was Bobby Sands’ Director of Elections. He has been a Councillor on Dungannon Council since 1985 and is the current Chairperson. He’s also been a MLA from this seat since 1998. In 2005 he was briefly suspended from the party due to disagreements on party policy regarding local council reorganisation and was accused of being an informer by DUP MP David Simpson in 2007, accusations he, of course, completely denies. Despite this the fact that he was elected in the first round in 2007, as well as a strong vote in his political base of Dungannon should be enough to see him sail to re-election.

Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Fein) was Molloy’s political adviser until she was elected as a councillor in 2005 on Dungannon council, and then elected as a MLA in 2007. She is currently serving as the council’s first female Mayor and was previously the first female mayor. O’Neill is young, bright and attractive and appears to be a rising star in the party, in fact she was nominated as ‘up and coming politician of the year’ in 2007 for the Slugger Awards. Considering the Sinn Fein strength here can counted as safe.

Patsy McGlone (SDLP). It’s taken me four MLAs to get through, but I’ve finally got to the first candidate in this seat elected on transfers rather than in the first round! McGlone is the SDLP’s deputy leader and he has been a MLA for this seat since 1998. He was also a Councillor in Cooksdown from 1993 to 2009. As a prominent SDLP politician with a strong base in the constituency and a strong SDLP vote behind him, McGlone should be perfectly fine on Election Day.

Billy Armstrong (UUP) is a veteran MLA, elected in 1998. At 67 years old it is he is standing down to retire.

The Challengers

There is only one question in Mid Ulster, and that is who will take the open UUP seat. Were the UUP standing Armstrong, I believe that the party would just about hold the seat, but given Armstrong’s retirement it is open and at risk.

The UUP’s candidate to hold the seat is Sandra Overend, a former Office Manager for Armstrong who stood as the UCUNF candidate here in 2010. She actually managed to slightly increase the UUP vote, despite a strong TUV performance, which just goes to show you shouldn’t write them off. The DUP could attempt to go for the seat, but going by their 2010 score it’s likely the TUV will simply split their vote too much, and the TUV themselves will need to substantially outperform their 2010 score to win the seat.

Finally there is the possibility of a fourth Sinn Fein MLA in the seat, but this strikes me as unlikely as well as the combined Unionist vote in this seat last May was 32.7%, more than enough to elect two MLAs, provided voters preference in a sane manner. They could also target the SDLP seat, though the SDLP vote appears too strong. That said Sinn Fein would be silly not to run a fourth candidate here as there is no apparent risk in doing so, though the chances of electing a fourth MLA are low.

This seat has had 3 Sinn Fein MLAs, 1 DUP MLA, 1 SDLP MLA and 1 UUP MLA since 1998. It is highly unlikely that this will change in my view.