Dead Parrot? The Lib Dems belie their poor polling with a win in Kent

There was a surprise gain for the Liberal Democrats in last night's by-elections as they took a seat off the Conservatives in Tunbridge Wells (Kent). They have a lot to thank UKIP for as the anti-EU party took a big chunk out of the Tories' vote share to gift the Lib Dems a moral boosting win. Labour were also celebrating as they gained a seat from the Scottish National Party in Renfrewshire. This result was less of a shock as Labour received more first preference votes than the Nationalists in this ward at the last election.

I'll start with the Liberal Democrat win in Kent where they gained a seat in Pembury, Tunbridge Wells from the Conservatives. The vacancy had arisen following the resignation of Cllr. Mike Tompsett over the de-selection of a colleague. Tompsett was easily re-elected in May in a straight fight with the Liberal Democrats; a result in keeping with recent elections in this ward. The Liberal Democrats had held this seat during the noughties and must have harboured hopes of a win here but a 9.4% swing from last May seemed a tall order. As it was, Claire Brown racked up a 128 vote majority on a 14.2% swing from the Tories. As expected there were some local issues at play here, most notable the internal dispute within the Conservative Council group, but nonetheless it appears the Lib Dems are still able to compete in areas of previous strength.

The CON>LD swing doesn't give the full picture though as the third placed UKIP candidate appears to have cost the Conservatives the seat. The Liberal Democrats increased their vote by just 3% from last May which, although a triumph given the recent battering the party has endured, does not account for a huge proportion of the swing. The big news from this result was the near direct 23.8% swing from the Conservatives to UKIP from last May, when the latter did not stand. The anti-EU party did contest this ward at the previous two elections but registered less than 7%. The 18% CON>UKIP swing from the 2007 election is yet more evidence that the Tories are leaking votes to Nigel Farage's party as a result of the coalition at national level. The result doesn't really affect Tunbridge Wells Council too much as the Conservatives have huge majority.

Tunbridge Wells Borough Council
CON			LD
41	-1		7		+1
Pembury
		Votes		Vote %		+/-
Claire Brown (E)		578		43.3%		+2.7%
Robert Rutherford		460		34.5%		-25.0%
Victor Webb		297		22.2%		+22.2%

This potentially opens up a whole new dimension to the District Council elections taking place in many rural areas this May. Now let's get one thing straight to begin with; the Liberal Democrats will lose a lot of Council seats this spring. This is especially true in northern areas, where they spent the best part of a decade persuading voters they were a genuine left of centre alternative to Labour. However, things are not so simple when we come to District Councils, in the South particularly, where the Lib Dems are competing with the Conservatives. It appears to be the case that the Liberal Democrats suffer in District by-elections when Labour are standing, which could be protest votes or it could be natural Labour voters no longer voting tactically. However, UKIP have begun to pick off Conservative voters dissatisfied with Cameron's coalition Government. As a huge number of Southern District Councils are straight LD/CON battlegrounds their success relative to each other in these contents could depend more on the rise of Labour and UKIP than the swing between the two main regional parties. As Labour and UKIP are unlikely to contest every District Council seat we could end up with some very odd results!

As we considered last week these Southern regions are far more important to the Liberal Democrats' long term survival than the Northern urban areas. The yellows hold fifteen Westminster seats in the South West alone compared to eleven in the North West, North East and Yorkshire & Humberside regions put together. If there is life after the coalition for the Liberal Democrats in their current form then it will be largely down to hold well they hold their vote in the rural South.

The other by-election last night also produced a gain as Labour took a seat in Paisley South, Renfrewshire from the Scottish Nationalists. The vacancy had arisen following the death of Scottish Nationalist Councillor Jim Mitchell. In 2007, Labour actually beat the SNP on first preferences but the Nationalists won two seats whilst the reds secured just one. With Labour's current favourable poll ratings in Scotland they looked good to gain a seat in this by-election, although the SNP vote in 2007 may have been suppressed because a former member stood as an Independent. Roy Glen was the Labour candidate who failed to take a seat in 2007, despite his running mate topping the poll, but last night he made amends by winning on the third round. Labour stormed to an easy gain falling just 27 votes short of winning on first preferences alone. The result leaves the SNP/LD coalition in control of Renfrewshire holding exactly half of the seats with a year to go until the next full Council elections.

Renfrewshire Council
LAB		SNP			LD			CON
18	+1	16	-1		4		-	2		-
Paisley South
				Votes		Vote %			+/-
Roy Glen (E)				2081		49.4%			+17.8%
David McCartney				1366		32.4%			+3.9%
Alison Cook				388		9.2%			-3.4%
Gary Pearson				164		3.9%			-6.4%
Ross Stalker				134		3.2%			-3.8%
Jimmy Kerr				82		1.9%			-3.5%

		Stage
Candidate	1stP%	1	2		3
Roy Glen (LAB)	49.4%	2081	2102	26%	2121	14%
David McCartney (SNP)	32.4%	1366	1382	20%	1404	16%
Alison Cook (CON)	9.2%	388	392	5%	441	35%
Gary Pearson (IND)	3.9%	164	179	18%	198	14%
Ross Stalker (LD)	3.2%	134	139	6%		0%
Jimmy Kerr (SSP)	1.9%	82				0%
No-Transfer		0	21	26%	51	22%

There are a couple of broader points to make on this result. Firstly, it is very much in line with current opinion polls which are showing Labour and the SNP up on their 2007 Scottish Parliament performance and the Westminster coalition partners down. The Lib Dems have suffered more than the Tories north of the border and as their voters have largely switch to Labour Iain Gray looks set to replace Alex Salmond as the leader of the largest Parliamentary group. As they are unlikely to secure a majority the post-election wrangling could be just as exciting as the election itself. Also, the transfers from the few loyal Liberal Democrat voters show what we have been assuming all along. What is left of their support leans significantly more towards the Conservatives than Labour.