Tuesday, 1 March 2011

Assembly Poll Additional Information

After a bit of badgering of You Gov, they have published the full data of that referendum poll and whilst there is not a specific voting intention poll, it is possible to make an estimate.

The poll's main question was "How will you vote in the referendum on Thursday?" and was divided up into Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Plaid Assembly voting intentions. The figures were: 1,003 people sampled, Con 145, Lab 394, Lib Dem 46, Plaid 151 which gives a total of 736 (indicating 267 don't know's or wouldn't vote). Converting those into percentages you get Con 19.7%, Lab 53.5%, Lib Dem 6.3%, Plaid 21.9%

However, they do not list the regional element (but using the average from past polls, it is possible to make an estimate for the regional list of Con 19%, Lab 44%, Lib Dem 6%, Plaid 22%).

Therefore it cannot be really classed as an Assembly voting intention poll but if it were it would produce the following Assembly:

Constituencies: Con 3 Lab 31 Lib Dem 0 Plaid 6
Regionals: Con 9 Lab 2 Lib Dem 0 Plaid 9
Totals: Con 12 (unchanged) Lab 33 (+7) Lib Dem 0 (-6) Plaid 15 (unchanged) Others 0 (-1)

So in a definite case of "you pays your money and you takes your choice" take what information you want to from this information


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