Thursday 24 March 2011

By-Election Preview (24th March)

There are two by-elections taking place today; both in Councils which are not hosting local elections this May. Labour are defending a seat in Lewisham (London) and there is a vacancy in Torfaen (Wales) following the resignation of an Independent.

We'll start in Wales as it's a far less predicable contest. The by-election for Pontypool, Torfaen is taking place following the resignation of Independent Councillor Fred Wildgust. He had already been suspended for 12 months and was under investigation for another complaint made against him. Not exactly the best circumstances to be leaving public service! To illustrate how difficult this by-election is to call I'm going to break with tradition a pop the pretty table in here:

Pontypool (Torfaen)

By-Election Candidate

2008

- (IND)

52.1%

John Killick (LAB)

30.6%

N/C (People's Voice)

17.4%

Adrian Lang (CON)

-

Paul Valente (PC)

-

Sarah Bousie (IND)

-

Mike Harris (IND)

-

Nigel Harris (IND)

-

Gaynor James (IND)

-

Ian Williams (IND)

-

In 2008 Wildgust comfortably won the seat ahead of Labour and a candidate from the, now defunct, Torfaen People's Voice. However, this by-election has attracted Conservative and Plaid Cymru candidates along with a plethora of Independents. There are some clues as to where the previous two non-partisan voters might head. The outgoing Councillor has signed the Tory's nomination papers, which would suggest he leant to the right politically. Furthermore, Ian Williams was a key member of the Torfaen People's Voice and stood as the party's candidate for the Torfaen constituency at the 2007 Welsh Assembly Election. There is clearly a strong Independent vote in the ward but with five different candidates standing it will be interesting to see if any can stand out.

With eight candidates contesting this by-election it is hard to believe the Labour took the ward uncontested in 2004. They appear the most likely of the political parties to win this by-election and they have good reason to campaign hard as well. Labour currently run the Torfaen Council as a minority administration and the extra seat could come in very handy with just over a year until all out elections take place.

Torfaen County Borough Council

LAB

IND

CON

PC

LD

PV

VAC

19

11

5

3

2

3

1

The other by-election this week is, thankfully, more straight forward. The vacancy in Bellingham, Lewisham has arisen following the death of Labour Councillor Ron Stockbridge. He came third in this three member ward last May behind his two Labour running mates and just under 500 votes ahead of the top Liberal Democrat candidate in fourth. Given the changes in the political landscape since the General Election it's difficult to see Labour not enjoying a big victory here today. They currently enjoy a huge majority in Lewisham, and hold the Mayoralty, so in the extremely unlikely event they lose this seat they will remain in control of the Council.

Bellingham (Lewisham)

By-Election Candidate

2010

Jacq Paschoud (LAB)

43.1%

Jenni Steele (LD)

26.7%

Simon Nundy (CON)

19.0%

N/C (Comm. Need)

5.8%

Phil Laurie (GRN)

5.4%

Ian Page (Soc. Alt.)

-

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