Labour HOLD Inverclyde

Labour have held their Westminster seat in Inverclyde with a reduced majority. The Scottish Nationalists managed an 8.8% swing but it was no where near enough to take the seat. In fact, Labour's vote share only dropped slightly as the SNP mainly took their votes from the Liberal Democrats, whose vote collapsed by 11.1% and they lost their deposit. It's worth bearing in mind that area the Lib Dems have done well here in the past and they controlled Inverclyde Council as recently as 2007. The Conservative vote held steady and, despite early rumours suggesting they might come fourth, UKIP didn't make much of an impression in this by-election.

By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Iain McKenzie (E)	15118	53.8%	-2.2%
Anne McLaughlin	9280	33.0%	+15.5%
David Wilson	2784	9.9%	-2.1%
Sophie Bridger	627	2.2%	-11.1%
Mitch Sorbie	288	1.0%	-0.1%

If we cut through all the spin and bluster this result fits nicely with the pattern from last month's Scottish Parliament elections and subsequent local Council by-elections in Scotland since then. The SNP have almost doubled their vote share to close the gap to Labour but the huge deficit they faced proved too much to overcome. This is largely because their new found support is mostly coming from the Liberal Democrats, who crashed to just 2.2% of the vote. In the absence of a direct swing between them and Labour the SNP are always going to struggle to win seats such as Inverclyde.

So, where does this leave everyone compared to rational expectations of the parties' performance? Well, Labour will be very pleased to have held on to half the vote so soon after their disastrous Scottish Parliament election. Although the 2010 General Election was a bad one for Labour across England and Wales their Scottish leader helped them increased their vote share north of the border. In light of this, and the loss of David Cairns' personal vote, Iain McKenzie has done very well to keep his party's vote share up with last May's result.

Although they will be a little disappointed not to have won this by-election the SNP can also be happy with this result as a 15.5% increase in vote share would have won them a number of other Westminster seats. Although Scottish Labour politicians are doing the rounds claiming this result shows that the Salmond bandwagon has ground to a halt privately they will be worried about next year's Council elections across Scotland. The SNP would have won a lot more seats if they had stood more candidates in 2007 and bar any mishaps between now and next May they are set to be the big gainers next May.

As the for the coalition partners this is a by-election to forget. For the Conservatives they can quite literally let this slip from their minds as their vote share barely budged. It's the party they overtook for third place who have the most to worry about after this result. For the second time this Parliament the Lib Dems have failed to hold their deposit and it's hard to spin your vote share dropping 11%.

Almost without exception voters in Scotland and the north of England have punished the Liberal Democrats for their perceived betrayal in entering a coalition with the Tories. It's hard to see a way for them to turn this around unless they can show tangible benefits to voters in these areas that the Lib Dem presence in Government is improving their lives. So far the Liberal Democrats have managed to take most of the flak for the coalition whilst the Conservatives have enjoyed any credit. If this does not change then the 2011 local election results are going to be repeated every year, culminating in a very difficult General Election for the third party.

Finally UKIP have again failed to make an impression in a by-election, which will be disappointing for them following their outstanding performance in Barnsley Central. To be fair, Scotland is not fertile ground for anti-EU party and few were expecting them to improve much on their 2010 result.

Currently there are no future Westminster by-elections pending, although a vacancy in the Inverclyde South Council ward looks likely following Iain McKenzie's win last night.

Debates provide talking points in Inverclyde By-Election

After the Statement of Persons Nominated was released for the Inverclyde by-election for those watching from a far news on the contest has been scarce. The general assumption on our part was that the SNP were struggling to make any ground on Labour and the by-election was a foregone conclusion. However, a couple of debates scheduled late in the campaign appear to have changed things a little.

Exactly a week before polls closed STV's Politics Now programme aired a debate with four of the five candidates (UKIP were excluded). The event was sure to be a banana skin for Labour candidate Iain McKenzie who, all things being equal, should have been cruising to victory. Unfortunately for Labour he didn't exactly cover himself in glory as and, as others have pointed out, gifted the young Liberal Democrat candidate Sophie Bridger an amusing put down when he consistently talked over her (see from around 17 minutes).

The SNP are in the best position to take advantage of any slip ups from Labour in this by-election but their candidate Anne McLaughlin feels she has scored a major victory in this campaign. The issue revolves around a leaked document that the SNP claim defines the criteria for Inverclyde Council to make compulsory redundancies. The SNP candidate pushed McKenzie, the leader of Inverclyde Council, on the issue during the first debate but he avoided explicitly ruling out compulsory redundancies.

It was in a second debate on the Politics Show (44 mins) that McLoughlin brought up the issue again and the Labour candidate stated that there will be no compulsory redundancies and there were no plans for any in the first place. Both sides have been spinning this locally and with job creation such a big issue in this by-election this is sure to have played a role in the final week.

What is striking from the debates is how much the other candidates managed to wind up McKenzie. He was cautioned by the chairs for interrupting and certainly didn't give off the aura of a candidate confident of victory on Thursday. Annoyingly this is first by-election of the Parliament that has not been polled so knowing exactly where everyone stands in this contest is difficult. Besides, any fieldwork for a poll would have been conducted at the end of last week so the fallout from the two debates would not have been captured.

Given the lack of media attention on this by-election before last Thursday it's safe to assume Labour were heading for an easy victory and although the SNP are fighting hard in the final few days I don't think it will be enough. McKenzie should hold this for his party, but I expect his majority to be a lot smaller than the 14,416 David Cairns racked up last May.

By-Election Candidate	2010
Iain McKenzie (Lab)	56 %
Anne McLaughlin (SNP)	17.5%
Sophie Bridger (LD)	13.3%
David Wilson (Con)	12%
Mitch Sorbie (UKIP)	1.2%

Tom Harris

Inverclyde Parliamentary By-Election Candidates

(Source: Inverclyde Council)
Sophie Bridger (Liberal Democrats)
Iain McKenzie (Labour)
Anne McLaughlin (Scottish National Party)
Mitch Sorbie (United Kingdom Independence Party)
David Wilson (Conservative)

The by-election will be held on June 30th 2011 and as usual we shall be following the result live on Twitter and (fingers crossed) Cover it Live as well

Labour select Iain McKenzie as their candidate for the Inverclyde by-election

Labour have selected the Inverclyde Council Leader Iain McKenzie as their candidate for the forthcoming Parliamentary by-election in Inverclyde. McKenzie fought off four other candidates on the shortlist to win the nomination and he will begin his campaign wary of the threat posed by the Scottish Nationalists. Although on paper this seat is safer than some Labour have defended this year the previous three Westminster by-elections have been in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats were second at the last General Election. The SNP may require a swing of almost 20% from last year but their performance in the recent Scottish Parliament elections should keep Labour honest.

Anne McLaughlin was chosen as the Scottish Nationalist's candidate on Thursday and although a gain may be a step too far there is certainly a good chance this will be the first by-election where Labour's majority is cut this Parliament. The SNP were only 511 votes short of gaining the roughly equivalent Greenock & Inverclyde constituency last month and Labour are starting from a better position in this seat as their vote in Scotland actually increased at the General Election last year.

Currently no date has been set for the by-election although rumours of the 30^th June have been going around. If that is to happen the writ would need to be moved this week. There have been other suggestions that the contest will be delayed until the autumn.

Here's the 2010 result with the declared by-election candidates:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Iain McKenzie (Lab)	56%
Anne McLaughlin (SNP)	17.5%
- (LD)	13.3%
- (Con)	12%
- (UKIP)	1.2%

SNP chose their candidate for Inverclyde; Labour’s selection meeting Saturday

Things have started to move for the Inverclyde by-election despite the fact the date has yet to be set. The Labour MP David Cairns passed away last month and rumours of late June and September are circulating. With a gap of two months between the two suggested dates we could be in for a very short or a very long campaign.

It is the Scottish Nationalists who have been first to find their candidate as they have selected Anne McLaughlin to contest the by-election. The SNP were the nearest challengers to Labour here last year. She has fought numerous constituency elections for her party over the last decade and represented Glasgow during the second half of the last Scottish Parliament following the death of a regional MSP. She lost her seat in last month's elections having been selected eighth on the SNP's regional list.

Labour are also not wasting any time as there is a selection meeting due to take place this Saturday to choose their candidate. According to LabourList the local party will pick from the following:

• Frankie Caldwell
  
• Iain McKenzie
  
• Martin McCluskey
  
• Melanie Ward
  
• David Whitton
  

As with all the by-elections thus far in this Parliament Labour are favourites to win. However, following their outstanding performance in the Scottish Parliament elections last month the SNP will hope to run Labour close. The Scottish Nationalists produced a 6.9% swing to come just 511 votes short of an unlikely gain in the Greenock and Inverclyde constituency, which is the closest equivalent to the Inverclyde seat Labour are defending in this by-election. The dynamics of this campaign are going to be vastly different to the Scottish Parliament one but this is likely to be the first by-election since the General Election where Labour's majority does not substantially increase. It's also worth remembering that Labour did much better in Scotland than the rest of the UK last year and so they are starting from a better position than in their other recent defences.

Here's the 2010 result:

		2010
Labour		56%
SNP		17.5%
Lib Dems		13.3%
Conservatives		12%
UKIP		1.2%

Inverclyde MP David Cairns has passed away; aged 44

On Monday evening the Labour Member of Parliament for Inverclyde David Cairns sadly passed away after a short illness. Cairns was admitted to hospital in March with acute pancreatitis. Aged just 44 his death is a huge shock and we offer our condolences to his family and friends.

Cairns was first elected in 2001 having already won his first political battle. As an ordained Catholic Priest an ancient law would have barred him from taking up his seat if he was successful in his bid to become the MP for Greenock & Inverclyde, as the seat was known then. Just before Parliament was dissolved a bill was passed to revoke the act that would disqualify Cairns. He went on to easily win the safe Labour seat.

During his time as an MP Cairns successfully championed a bill to prevent shop workers being forced to work against their will on Sundays. He went on to became a junior minister in the Scottish Office in 2005 but he resigned in 2008 as he was unable to publicly support Gordon Brown. You can find fuller obituaries on all the newspaper's websites and many political blogs. Our personal recommendation would be the Glasgow South MP, and good friend of David Cairns, Tom Harris', which you can find here.

There will be a by-election for the Inverclyde constituency in due course which will be covered on this website. However, it doesn't seem quite right to start talking about the political fallout after just 48 hours; we'll come back to this in a week or so.