SNP win ‘the most interesting council by-election EVER’!

Thursday's battle royale in Scotland's most marginal ward resulted in a nail-biting wait through five rounds of counting, culminating in an SNP hold after an early Tory lead.

As expected, the first preference votes created a tight race for the top with the Tories leading on first preference but no candidate achieving even half of the quota. The Tory, SNP, Labour and Green vote shares each varied slightly on the 2007 first preferences, but it was the Lib Dem vote that collapsed completely from 20% four years ago to 7% on Thursday. At a raw glance, this vote seems to have gone mostly to the anti-tram independent, but I expect the actual pattern to have been similar to recent by-elections across Scotland with Lib Dem voters switching to the SNP and Conservatives while Carson, based on his transfers, seems to have mostly pulled support from the Tories.

City Centre
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Iain McGill	837	24.2%	+4%
Alasdair Rankin (E)	797	23.1%	+2.6%
Karen Doran	682	19.7%	+1.7%
Melanie Main	494	14.3%	-2.7%
John Carson	394	11.4%	+11.4%
Alistair Hodgson	251	7.3%	-12.6%

Carson polled well for an independent candidate in Edinburgh, possibly a showing of the strength of feeling against the problems caused by mismanagement of the tram project, and overall a majority of first preferences was won between him and the anti-tram parties of the Conservatives and the SNP. However, with no change in administration forthcoming the tram project seems certain to carry on.

Predictably, the Lib Dem votes transferred strongly in favour of the Greens, but there were simply too few Lib Dem votes in the first place to push them ahead of Labour. Carson's votes transferred mostly to the Conservatives' benefit, building them a considerable lead over the SNP. However, the elimination of the Greens narrowed that gap considerably and the final elimination of the Labour candidate pushed the SNP into the lead to retain the seat.

		Stage
Candidate	1stP%	1	2			3			4			5
Iain McGill (Con)	24.2%	837	67	27%	904	139	35%	1043	67	11%	1110	154	16%	1264
Alasdair Rankin (SNP)	23.1%	797	28	11%	825	68	17%	893	188	30%	1081	287	30%	1368
Karen Doran (Lab)	19.7%	682	34	14%	716	29	7%	745	223	35%	968	-968
Melanie Main (Grn)	14.3%	494	82	33%	576	59	15%	635	-635
John Carson (Ind)	11.4%	394	8	3%	402	-402
Alistair Hodgson (LD)	7.3%	251	-251
No-Transfer			32	13%	32	107	27%	139	157	25%	296	527	54%	823

The biggest winner in this contest seems to have been apathy, with a 23% turnout which is very poor by Edinburgh standards for by-elections. As I noted earlier in the week though, the election was held at a very poor time with both students away on summer break and much of the ward occupied by the ongoing Fringe festival, both of which will have reduced turnout.

The Tories had a strong showing for most of the counts, but the most spectacular result has to be that of the Lib Dems, who lost nearly two thirds of their first preference share from 2007. Extrapolating this to next year's city wide council elections large losses seem very likely, possibly even reducing their council group to a rump from the party's strongholds in the western suburbs. Who exactly will gain those seats though looks uncertain. KK

City of Edinburgh Council
LD		Lab		SNP		Con		Grn
16	-	15	-	13	-	11	-	3	-

So, from that epic AV by-election we head south to Knowsley where a slightly less exciting contest took place. A seat in the Page Moss ward was vacated by Labour Councillor Tommy Russell, who had resigned for reasons unknown. As Labour had won here in May with the support of more than nine in ten voters the result was something of a foregone conclusion. True to form Dave Tulley held the seat for Labour, although he only managed a miserly 82.5% of the vote. That represented a swing of 6.2% to the Liberal Democrats since the election three months ago. Not bad until you consider they received only 57 votes, down from 100 in May.

The most interesting figure this by-election threw up is surely the turnout of just 12.9%; something small 'd' democrats will surely be horrified at. The Knowsley Council is dominated by Labour, who should enjoy similar margins of victory across the Metropolitan Borough in next year's partial elections. TH

Page Moss (Knowlsey)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Dave Tulley (E)	541	82.5%	-10.6%
Matt Hughes	57	8.7%	+1.8%
Sean Watson	22	3.4%	+3.4%
Marie Rea	21	3.2%	+3.2%
Robert Avery	15	2.3%	+2.3%

By-Election Preview (18th August)

There are two by-elections taking place, and in contrast to last week we are heading up north! Labour are looking to hold one of the safest wards in Knowsley but by far the more interesting contest is taking place in Edinburgh. The SNP are defending what is on paper a five way marginal, although the Liberal Democrats' recent electoral record in Scotland would suggest they aren't likely to gain this. However, the reports on the ground suggest the Independent is popular and so this AV election could be won by any of five candidates! Shame they aren't counting 'til the morning, eh?! I'll leave you with Kristofer Keane…

This week sees a by-election taking place in what must be the most marginal seat in the whole of Scotland, if not the whole UK.  In the 2007 local elections, Edinburgh's City Centre ward saw a vote share difference between 1st and 5th place of just 3.4% on first preferences.  Each of Scotland's four largest parties stood a single candidate, as did the Scottish Greens who took their second highest vote share in any Scottish ward here (after Glasgow Hillhead).  In the end, the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives each won a seat after the transfer of Labour and Green votes as well as smaller transfers from the SSP, the Liberal Party and an independent.

City of Edinburgh Council itself is run by a Lib Dem-SNP coalition who hold exactly half of the council seats, so there could potentially be an administration change here if neither of them win the seat, which was vacated by the SNP councillor David Beckett who is off to lecture at Harvard University in the USA.  However, it is unclear what an alternative administration would look like as the remaining seats lie with the unlikely allies of Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens.

The City Centre ward covers the Old Town, New Town, Haymarket and Abbeyhill districts of Edinburgh.  These prestigious areas include such sights as the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh City Chambers and Edinburgh Castle, as well as many of the Edinburgh Fringe Festival venues - something which has proven a contentious point to campaigners in this by-election as traditionally many residents here let their flats out to performers and tourists during the festival while going off to spend the month away from the city's hustle and bustle. Turnout therefore is likely to be very low, especially with the large student contingent still away on holidays as well.

The five major parties from last time are all standing again, but as if to just make this seat even more marginal, a populist independent standing on a scrap-the-trams platform is joining them.  The trams are a highly contentious issue in Edinburgh, and especially in the city centre where much of the traffic disruption has been caused.  The trams were originally supported by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens, and were originally envisaged as a city-wide network stretching north, west and south from the city centre.  However, after a rejected congestion charge referendum, government spending cuts, and then a protracted legal dispute with the firm who won the council contract to build the tram infrastructure, the project has been massively scaled back while managing to run substantially over-time and over-budget.  Independent Carson could therefore very well pick up a decent protest vote.

The Lib Dems, although winning the first seat here in 2007 after Green transfers, are likely to fall back considerably due to their Westminster coalition as well as their responsibility in supporting and delivering the trams. Certainly a big fall would follow the pattern seen here in the Holyrood elections in May and across Scotland in recent by-elections.  The SNP, as junior administration partners, may get some flak over the trams although they have largely managed to be seen as opposing the trams from Holyrood while allowing them through at council level and so may have saved themselves on that one.  Based on recent elections, they would expect to increase their vote on 2007.

Labour are the largest opposition group on the council, but they failed to win a seat here in 2007. Their candidate also had an unfortunate fall while campaigning and ended up hospitalised with a broken ankle, impeding her campaigning.  The Conservative candidate is an experienced campaigner and given they hold the only opposition seat in this ward, they may be hoping to capitalise on protest votes as well.  The Greens meanwhile have been pulling in resources and campaigners from across the country to try to gain the seat, and may benefit from a large part of the voters switching from the Liberal Democrats.

One thing for sure is that no party will win this on first preferences, and transfers will probably determine the winner.  In this, the independent single-issue candidate is likely to do poorly, as well as the Conservatives who generally get poor transfer shares.  If the Liberal Democrats are eliminated early on, that should largely benefit the Greens and then the SNP.  At that point, if the Greens are eliminated before Labour, that could help push Labour on to victory while vice versa a Labour elimination would boost the Greens.  All in all, this one is far too close to call. KK

City of Edinburgh Council
LD	Lab	SNP	Con	Grn	Vac
16	15	12	11	3	1
City Centre
By-Election Candidate				2007
Alasdair Rankin (SNP)				20.4%
Iain McGill (Con)				20.2%
Alistair Hodgson (LD)				19.9%
Karen Doran (Lab)				18%
Melanie Main (Grn)				17%
N/C (SSP)				1.8%
N/C (Ind)				1.6%
N/C (Lib)				1%
John Carson (Ind)				-

On a scale of marginal wards in the United Kingdom Page Moss, Knowsley would on the complete opposite end to City Centre, Edinburgh. The Labour candidate in May enjoyed a majority of 82.6% over his Liberal Democrat opponent. Although magnitude of victory was exaggerated by the fact anger in Liverpool against the Lib Dems' decision to enter a national coalition with the Conservatives Labour have always enjoyed huge wins here. This vacancy has arisen following the resignation of Tommy Russell, for reasons unknown, and his win in 2008 was achieved with over three quarters of the vote. It's safe to say there won't be recount tonight!

Labour hold all but four seats on Knowsley Council with partial elections due to take place next year. TH

Page Moss (Knowlsey)
By-Election Candidate	2011	2010	2008
Dave Tulley (Lab)	93.1%	85%	78.7%
Matt Hughes (LD)	6.9%	15%	21.3%
Robert Avery (Con)	-	-	-
Marie Rea (Grn)	-	-	-
Sean Watson (Ind)	-	-	-

 

As the Edinburgh by-election result is likely to be quite interesting we are looking into the possibility of running a LiveBlog on the Friday Morning. We'll announce further details on tonight's LiveBlog, which is sure to be riveting. Who doesn't want to find out how high Labour's vote share can go?!

Barnsley Central wasn’t the only by-election Labour won on Thursday…

Understandably, the focus yesterday was on Labour's win in Barnsley Central; and the Liberal Democrats poor showing. However, Labour's performance in Thursday's Council by-elections was arguably a more impressive. Not only did they hold both the seats they were defending with increased majorities but they gained a seat each from the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. The Tories managed to defend the final seat without any fuss.

The big result of the night was clearly in Cardiff. The by-election for the Riverside ward took place following the resignation of Plaid Cymru Councillor Gwenllian Lansdown, who is moving to Powys after her recent marriage. The Welsh Nationalists selected 'Mr Riverside' as their candidate and they had a healthy notional lead so they looked good value to hang on to this seat. As it was Labour managed an, almost direct, 14% swing to comfortably win the by-election. Iona Jordan received just under half the vote as she recorded a 601 vote majority. The result will not help the current Liberal Democrat/Plaid coalition in charge of Cardiff as their majority is cut to just five in the 75 seat Council.

Cardiff Council
LD		CON		LAB			PC			IND
34	-	17	-	14		+1	6		-1	4		-
Riverside
By-Election Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Iona Gordon (E)					1700			46.8%			+14.4%
Steve Garrett					1099			30.3%			-13.6%
James Roach					369			10.2%			-2.0%
Yvan Maurel					277			7.6%			+7.6%
Gwilym Owen					187			5.1%			-6.4%

Labour also recorded an impressive gain in Wigan as they took a seat from the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Wigan Central ward arose following the resignation of Cllr. Henry Cadman due to ill health, although the Council had already voted against extending his sick leave anyway. In 2008 Cadman was comfortably elected but things have not gone well for the Conservatives in this ward since then. One of Cadman's fellow Tory Councillors in this ward Gareth Fairhurst broke away from the party in 2009 to form an Independent group and last May he stood for re-election as a 'Wigan Independent Conservative'. As a result, Labour were able to gain the seat as the Tory vote split between their current and former candidates. Fairhurst stood again in this by-election and the same thing happened again. This time, however, the winning Labour candidate Laurence Hunt out-polled the combined Conservative plus Independent Conservative vote total, thanks largely to the absence of a BNP candidate. This indicates the Tories are going to struggle to hold their final seat in this ward when it is contested in May regardless of whether Fairhurst stands again. This gain adds another seat to Labour's handsome majority on Wigan Council.

Wigan Central (Wigan)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Lawrence Hunt (E)	1165	48.6%	+6.4%
Robin Gibson	652	27.2%	+1.2%
Gareth Fairhurst	393	16.4%	-2.2%
Keith Jones	189	7.9%	-0.2%
N/C (BNP)	0	0.0%	-5.2%

Unsurprisingly the Labour candidate Brenden Ryan in the Walkden North, Salford MBC by-election won easily, securing almost three quarters of the vote in the process. The collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote was the most notable aspect of this contest as they lost 14% of their vote share from last May to come last with just 62 votes. In First-Past-The-Post losing heavily isn't necessarily a bad thing if you win small in the important seats. The Liberal Democrats are getting very good at the former; we'll have to wait until 5^th May to see if they can manage the latter.

We here at Britain-Votes.co.uk like a good Scottish by-election for the simple reason that AV results are far more interesting from a psephological perspective than FPTP. So imagine our disappointment when the Kilpartick, West Dunbartonshire by-election, caused by the resignation of Labour Councillor Margaret Bootland for health reasons, was won on first preferences alone! The Labour candidate Lawrence O'Neill received just over 60% of the first preferences and so the count ended after just one round. To be fair, we weren't expected any different considering Labour received over half the first preferences in 2007 and are riding higher in the polls compared to that election. In that respect, the Scottish National Party will be relatively pleased their vote share held steady and Labour didn't pull too far away. They will be hoping this will be repeated in the Scottish Parliament elections in two months time, although as there wasn't a Liberal Democrat candidate in this ward for Labour to take votes from that may be wishful thinking. The win takes Labour back up to 8 Councillors in this 22 seat Council, just one behind the SNP who are running West Dunbartonshire as a minority group.

Finally, the Conservatives easily held March North, Cambridgeshire County Council. The by-election was taking place following the death of Cllr. John West, who secured over 55% of the vote in 2009. Steve County won with a marginally reduced vote share from the last election, but the main story again was the drop in the Liberal Democrat vote. They lost 7% of their vote share from two years ago as Labour pipped them into second place by 5 votes. I'm sure very few will envy anyone standing for the Liberal Democrats in Council elections this May as they seem set to drop back across the country. The Tories have a comfortable majority in Cambridgeshire and full council elections are not due until 2013.

Walkden North (Salford)					March North (Cambridgeshire)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-		By-Election Candidate	Votes		Vote %		+/-
Brenden Ryan (E)	1291	72.6%	+21.6%		Steve County (E)	616		52.4%		-3.4%
Chris Bates	209	11.7%	-10.2%		Louis Sugden	282		24.0%		+10.3%
Laurence Depares	125	7.0%	-2.7%		William McAdam	277		23.6%		-6.9%
Keith Fairhurst	92	5.2%	+5.2%
Susan Carson	62	3.5%	-14.0%

 

West Dunbartonshire Council
SNP		LAB			IND			SSP
9	-	8	-		4	-		1		-
Kilpatrick
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Lawrence O'Neill (E)				1382			60.1%		+4.2%
Frank NcNiff				758			32.9%		+0.1%
Douglas Boyle				161			7.0%		-1.3%
N/C (SSP)				0			0.0%		-3.0%