Saturday 30 July 2011

Lib Dems celebrate victory in Warrington

Reporting on four holds would usually be a fairly boring affair but the rare poor night for Labour is noteworthy in itself. In Warrington they failed to gain a seat from the Liberal Democrats in ward they won less than three months ago. Labour also struggled to make up any ground in two London wards the Conservatives were defending as well as one in Lancashire.

I'll start in Warrington where Labour looked likely to win a seat in Poulton North from the Liberal Democrats following the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Sharon Wilson due to work commitments. Wilson won her seat in 2008 with a huge majority but Labour were victorious here in 2010 and 2011 so it wasn't unreasonable to expect the Lib Dems to lose their final seat here in this by-election. As it was Colin Oliver, who was the Lib Dem Councillor for this ward until this May, won by 211 votes which represented an 8.5% swing from this year's election.

It's hard to tell if this is the start of a revival for the Liberal Democrats after a disastrous year for them in local elections. Labour had selected a candidate with a two week holiday to Spain booked during July and his absence from the campaign trail will have surely contributed to his loss. There were also controversial circumstances surrounding the Lib Dems' other recent by-election victory in a ward last contested this spring and so whether the party has really started to recover from rock bottom remains to be seen. This week's by-election for Somerset CC might give us a better idea as the two District Councils wards that make up the vacant division were contested this May and there are no obvious reasons for a shock result.

Although Labour are sure to be disappointed with their failure to win this seat they still enjoy a healthy majority in Warrington with the next round of elections due to take place next May.

Poulton North (Warrington)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-*

Colin Oliver (E)

1106

48.3%

+9.1%

Ashley Pemberton

895

39.1%

-7.8%

Mark Chapmen

190

8.3%

-5.6%

James Ashington

97

4.2%

+4.2%

* Change from 2011

The two by-elections in London were both comfortably held by the Conservatives and, somewhat surprisingly, Labour made little to no ground up in either contest. The Bush Hill Park ward, Enfield was vacant following the resignation of Tory Councillor Eleftherios Savva, who is moving to Cyprus for family reasons. Labour were unlikely to achieve the 7% swing required to gain the seat but the 2.1% swing away from them to the Conservatives was a little unexpected. There was a similar result in Harrow where a seat in the Stanmore Park ward was up for grabs following the resignation of Mark Versallion, who lives in Central Bedfordshire and won a seat on the Council there in May. Despite the presence of an ex-Tory Councillor on the ballot paper the Conservatives' vote share held steady and the swing to Labour was a nominal 0.58%.

Labour's performance in the capital a last year's General Election was relatively strong and has generally led to smaller swings in London by-elections since then compared to elsewhere in the country. Labour won a majority of seats in London last year so to be holding their vote share in by-elections in fairly safe Conservatives wards is hardly a complete disaster. In sharp contrast to the Warrington result the Liberal Democrat vote share fell by around 10% in both London by-elections, in keeping with their usual performance in uncompetitive wards last contested in 2010.

Labour control both Harrow and Enfield and they are likely to do so until the next all out elections in 2014

Bush Hill Park (Enfield)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-*

Lee Chamberlain (E)

1108

44.5%

+6.1%

Ivor Wiggett

668

26.8%

+2.0%

Tony Kingsnorth (Ind)

230

9.2%

+9.2%

Paul Smith

177

7.1%

-12.3%

Douglas Coker

100

4.0%

-6.5%

Gwyneth Rolph

70

2.8%

-4.1%

Stephen Squire

61

2.5%

+2.5%

Clive Morrison (CP)

45

1.8%

+1.8%

Ben Weald

29

1.2%

+1.2%

* Change based on highest vote from 2010

Stanmore Park (Harrow)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-*

Marilyn Ashton (E)

1395

58.1%

-0.4%

Niraj Dattani

509

21.2%

+0.7%

Eric Silver

299

12.4%

+12.4%

Sylvia Warshaw

98

4.1%

-9.4%

Linda Robinson

53

2.2%

-5.3%

Herbert Crossman

48

2.0%

+2.0%

* Change based on highest vote from 2010

Finally, the Conservatives held a safe ward on the Blackburn with Darwen Unitary Authority. The Beardwood with Lammack ward was vacant following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Sheila Williams due to ill health. The Tories have won this ward for the past two years with just over 60% of the vote and Thursday's result fitted in nicely with that pattern. The slight swing towards the Conservatives came at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Labour currently control the Council with a comfortable majority with partial elections due to take place next May.

Beardwood w/ Lammack (Blackburn w/ Darwen)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-*

Julie Daley (E)

1097

63.8%

+3.4%

Ashley Whalley

572

33.3%

+0.1%

Salim Lorgat

51

3.0%

-3.5%

* Change from 2011


 

Tom Harris

Thursday 28 July 2011

By-Election Night Live: 28th July

Last busy night for a while...


By-Election Preview (28th July)

Of the five by-elections this week four are taking place today. Labour have already gained one seat this week and they will be looking to pick up another in Warrington BC (Unitary) from the Liberal Democrats. There are also two vacancies to be filled in London Boroughs where the Conservatives are defending seats in Harrow and Enfield. The Tories are also looking to hold on to a safe seat on the Blackburn with Darwen BC (Unitary).

We'll start in Warrington where there is a vacancy in the Poulton North ward following the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Sharon Wilson due to work commitments. Wilson won her seat in 2008 with a huge majority but Labour narrowly won this ward in 2010 by 31 votes and enjoyed a relatively comfortable victory in this year's election. Labour's win in May ousted the incumbent Lib Dem Councillor Colin Oliver and he is contesting this by-election.

It would seem that Labour's campaign could have gone better given that their candidate took a two week holiday in Spain starting just three weeks before polling day. Apparently the holiday was booked well in advance but it's the sort of thing that the Lib Dems could well exploit in what is a tight marginal. Their performance in Warrington this year was relatively good given their generally catastrophic results in the North and as far stronger favourites have lost by-elections because they took a break this could be close.

Labour's six gains in Warrington this May meant they took the Council from No Overall Control. They currently enjoy a 12 seat majority so a Liberal Democrat gain wouldn't alter the balance of power in Warrington a great deal. Partial elections are due here in 2012 and whoever wins this by-election will have to face the voters again next May.

Poulton North (Warrington)

By-Election Candidate

2011

2010

2008

Ashley Pemberton (Lab)

46.9%

38.9%

23.4%

Colin Oliver (LD)

39.2%

38.2%

59.9%

Mark Chapmen (Con)

13.9%

22.9%

16.7%

James Ashington (UKIP)

-

-

-

This week the Conservatives are defending two wards in London Boroughs with the more competitive contest taking place in Enfield. The vacancy in the Bush Hill Park has arisen following the resignation of Tory Councillor Eleftherios Savva, who is moving to Cyprus for family reasons. Savva was one of three Conservatives easily returned in 2010 and as Labour haven't always managed to produce big swings in London by-elections like they have in other parts of the Country the 7% required in this contest looks a tall order. However, there is a significant Liberal Democrat and Green vote to be squeezed in this ward so it's not beyond the realms of possibility.

An interesting facet of this by-elections is the number of candidates contesting it; nine in total. The three main parties were joined by the Greens and UKIP in 2010 but this election has attracted candidates from the BNP, English Democrats and the Christian Party as well as an Independent. The Independent is the chairman of a residents association so it will be interesting to see if his candidature negatively affects the Conservatives.

It's worth noting that the Conservatives easily won a 2009 by-election in this ward with a far higher share of the vote than they achieved in either the 2006 or 2010 all out elections. Labour currently control Enfield with a comfortable majority with the next full Council elections due in 2014.

Bush Hill Park (Enfield)

By-Election Candidate

2010

Lee Chamberlain (Con)

38.4%

Ivor Wiggett (Lab)

24.8%

Paul Smith (LD)

19.4%

Douglas Coker (Grn)

10.5%

Gwyneth Rolph (UKIP)

6.9%

Tony Kingsnorth (Ind)

-

Clive Morrison (Christian Party)

-

Stephen Squire (BNP)

-

Ben Weald (ED)

-

The other London by-election is taking place in the Stanmore Park ward, Harrow. The vacancy was caused by the resignation of Mark Versallion, who lives in Central Bedfordshire and won a seat on the Council there in May. Versallion easily won his Harrow in 2010 along with two other Tories and his party should be confident of victory in what is a safe ward for them.

Although the vacancy could be perceived as unnecessary the Conservatives successfully defended a seat in an almost identical situation last week. They do have a slight problem with the fact the Independent candidate Eric Silver is an ex-Tory Councillor. The rumour is that he left the Conservatives having not been selected as his party's candidate in either this by-election or the recent contest in Canons. However, Silver held a seat in Headstone North before his defeat, to an Independent, in 2010 so his presence on the ballot paper is unlikely to have the same affect than it would if this by-election was in his old ward.

If the Conservatives hold this seat then Labour will have a five seat majority in Harrow with the next full elections due to take place in 2014.

Stanmore Park (Harrow)

By-Election Candidate

2010

Marilyn Ashton (Con)

58.5%

Niraj Dattani (Lab)

20.5%

Sylvia Warshaw (LD)

13.5%

Linda Robinson (Grn)

7.5%

Herbert Crossman (UKIP)

-

Eric Silver (Ind)

-

We're back up north for this week's final by-election. The vacancy in Beardwood with Lammack, Blackburn with Darwen has arisen following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Sheila Williams due to ill health. Williams won her seat by a ridiculous margin in 2008 and although the Tory majorities in the last two years have not been quite so large this is still a safe ward for them. Labour currently control the Council with a comfortable majority with partial elections due to take place next May.

Beardwood w/ Lammack (Blackburn w/ Darwen)

By-Election Candidate

2011

2010

2008

Julie Daley (Con)

60.4%

61.7%

81.8%

Ashley Whalley (Lab)

33.2%

38.3%

18.2%

Salim Lorgat (LD)

6.4%

-

-


 

Tom Harris

Wednesday 27 July 2011

Labour snatch a seat in Wales

The result of last night's rare Tuesday by-election in Torfaen was a comfortable gain for Labour. The vacancy in the Snatchwood division was caused by the death of Cllr. Tom Gould, who had been sitting as an Independent following the disbandment of the People's Voice movement in Torfaen.

For the second time this year Labour turned their apparent advantage in a Torfaen by-election into an extra Council seat as Barry Taylor eased to a 78 vote victory. Another thing this contest had in common with the earlier Torfaen by-election in Pontypool is that the Independent candidate Mike Harris was Labour's nearest challenger, polling 161 votes in both elections. The remnants of the People's Voice party again faired badly as Steve Joy, who was effectively their candidate, was a disappointing third in a division they won just over three years ago.

The victory edges Labour closer to that elusive majority in the Torfaen as they now hold 21 of the 44 seats. They should be confident emerging from the all out elections next May with full control of the Council.

Torfaen County Borough Council

LAB

IG

Ind

Con

PC

LD

21

+1

8

-

7

-

5

-

2

-

1

-

Snatchwood

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Barry Taylor (E)

239

47.9%

Mike Harris

161

32.3%

Steve Joy

41

8.2%

Nigel Harris

37

7.4%

Caroline Powell

12

2.4%

Richard Overton

9

1.8%


 

Tom Harris

Tuesday 26 July 2011

By-Election Night Live: 26th July

Will start at 10.30...

Is this the worst possible result for the BNP?

You may not have noticed, but there was a party leadership contest yesterday for the BNP.

I blogged about some of the BNP’s travails back in November. My blogpost was met by some sharp denials by what I can only assume were BNP activists, but nonetheless the situation appeared to go from bad to worse for the BNP after that. Relations between Nick Griffin and the party’s second MEP, Andrew Brons, appeared to deteriorate in pretty dramatic terms culminating with this youtube video:


(This is an edited down version of a much longer recording that I have borrowed from the gentlemen at political scrapbook.)

Brons himself is a former National Front leader during the period which it was already dying. He is older than Griffin (64) and less rabble rousing and seems more cerebral. He used to teach A-level politics.

In June 2011 the BNP adopted a new constitution, said constitution stated that party leaders have to be re-elected every four years. Brons challenged Griffin for the leadership and this is the result:

Candidate

Votes

Percentage

Nick Griffin

1156

50.19%

Andrew Brons

1148

49.80%

There were 11 spoilt ballots and 39 votes not counted as they lacked a signature. All in all Nick Griffin beat Andrew Brons by 9 votes. Griffin immediately called for unity, but I can’t help but feel that the opposite will happen. Close elections in split parties are rarely a good thing and the BNP is clearly highly divided at this time. The close result will give those within the party who oppose Griffin a feeling of a missed opportunity and fresh anger. It is hard to believe this is over.

In any case, it is difficult to see the BNP as anything but a party in terminal decline, a dead project. That is not to say that the far-right is dead, just that it will be forced to change. Indeed it may have already done, the EDL may now be the public face of the anti-immigration movement.

Monday 25 July 2011

By-Election Preview (26th July)

We have a rare Tuesday by-election this week and it is taking place in the Welsh Council of Torfaen. The vacancy is in the Snatchwood division following the death of Cllr. Tom Gould, who had been sitting as an Independent following the disbandment of the People's Voice movement in Torfaen. Gould won his seat in 2008 in a straight fight with Labour but this by-election will be contested by no less than six candidates.

Labour should be favourites to take this having held the division before 2008 and their defeated candidate from that election Barry Taylor is standing again. He is up against a couple of candidates who stood in the last Torfaen by-election, which took place shortly before the General Election. Both Mike and Nigel Harris (no relation to my knowledge [to each other or to me!]) stood in Pontypool and Mike Harris came close to denying Labour the gain. Steve Joy is linked to Ian Williams, who was a key player in the People's Voice and is still trying to keep the dream alive. Williams' himself stood in Pontypool polling a disappointing 80 votes but as this division was won by the People's Voice in 2008 Joy might have more luck in this by-election.

Since March there have been a few changes to the composition of Torfaen Council as the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru have both had Councillors leave their respective groups to sit as Independents. Labour are still running the Council as a minority administration though with full Council elections due next May.

Torfaen County Borough Council

LAB

IG

Ind

Con

PC

LD

Vac

20

8

7

5

2

1

1

Snatchwood

By-Election Candidate

2008

N/C (PV)

56.9%

Barry Taylor (Lab)

43.1%

Mike Harris (Ind)

-

Nigel Harris (Ind)

-

Steve Joy (Ind)

-

Richard Overton (Con)

-

Caroline Powell (PC)

-


 

Tom Harris

By-Election Preview (26th July)

We have a rare Tuesday by-election this week and it is taking place in the Welsh Council of Torfaen. The vacancy is in the Snatchwood division following the death of Cllr. Tom Gould, who had been sitting as an Independent following the disbandment of the People's Voice movement in Torfaen. Gould won his seat in 2008 in a straight fight with Labour but this by-election will be contested by no less than six candidates.

Labour should be favourites to take this having held the division before 2008 and their defeated candidate from that election Barry Taylor is standing again. He is up against a couple of candidates who stood in the last Torfaen by-election, which took place shortly before the General Election. Both Mike and Nigel Harris (no relation to my knowledge [to each other or to me!]) stood in Pontypool and Mike Harris came close to denying Labour the gain. Steve Joy is linked to Ian Williams, who was a key player in the People's Voice and is still trying to keep the dream alive. Williams' himself stood in Pontypool polling a disappointing 80 votes but as this division was won by the People's Voice in 2008 Joy might have more luck in this by-election.

Since March there have been a few changes to the composition of Torfaen Council as the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru have both had Councillors leave their respective groups to sit as Independents. Labour are still running the Council as a minority administration though with full Council elections due next May.

Torfaen County Borough Council

LAB

IG

Ind

Con

PC

LD

Vac

20

8

7

5

2

1

1

Snatchwood

By-Election Candidate

2008

N/C (PV)

56.9%

Barry Taylor (Lab)

43.1%

Mike Harris (Ind)

-

Nigel Harris (Ind)

-

Steve Joy (Ind)

-

Richard Overton (Con)

-

Caroline Powell (PC)

-


 

Tom Harris