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| The Senedd where the Welsh Assembly meets. |
On Thursday the 5th of May 2011 Wales goes to the ballot box to elect the Welsh Assembly. This election proves to be important for Wales for several reasons. Firstly, it will be the first election after the formation of the Labour-Plaid Cymru ‘One Wales’ government in 2007. Secondly there has now been a change of government at Westminster with a Conservative-Liberal Democrat government in charge and this election will be seen as a judgement on that government, and thirdly there is a referendum on full legislative powers for the Assembly in March, and if it passes, as is likely, then this will be the first Assembly with full law-making powers. As ever Britain-Votes will be covering the election, in full, and this is a guide to that election. One oddity of this election is that either at Westminster or Cardiff Bay all four parties are in power, with a Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition governing Wales and a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition governing the UK. As with our other guides we do not seek to cover every single part of Welsh politics, but for this to act as a basic primer. The guide is split into sections, with each section designed to be possible to read alone.
1. Brief History and Context – the Origins of the Parliament
2. Political and Electoral System
3. Political Parties and Party System
4. Major Issues
5. Previous Election Results
5.1 2008 Local Elections
5.2 2009 European Parliament election
5.3 2010 Welsh Westminster results
5.4 2007 Welsh Assembly results
6. Current AMs
7. Resources
1. Brief History and Context - the Origins of the Parliament
Wales has always had a much more contestable identity than Scotland. It was only ever briefly a united state, and from 1066 onwards the country was under constant pressure from the Norman Kings of England. From about the 13th Century Wales essentially became a colony of England, and was formally annexed in the 16th century. From then on, England and Wales were legally one entity. The Welsh language was also banned, though a Welsh border was defined, though as one legal entity the border had no true relevance. Despite this a majority of the population continued to speak Welsh well into the 20th century. The Industrial Revolution, however, diluted Welsh identity further as there was a massive influx into the new urban industrial centres of South Wales. To this day most people in South Wales are in fact descended from these English immigrants rather than from those who had lived in Wales. The Welsh were often treated poorly by the English dominated government in Westminster. For example an 1847 report into Welsh education concluded that Welsh education was in a dreadful state but that the Welsh were ignorant, lazy and immoral, which was blamed on Welsh religious non-conformism and the Welsh language.
Welsh nationalism, as such, was always weak. Plaid Cymru was established in 1925, but was not particularly successful. There remained a Welsh identity of sorts, however. Religious non-conformism, that is to say support for Protestant splinter groups, was always strong in Wales, with Methodism popular in particular. Methodism had strong links with the Liberal Party, and Britain’s only Welsh speaking Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, was from that party. Even at their nadir, the Liberals maintained a presence in the rural and Northern Welsh speaking areas of Wales where religious non-conformism was strong and class identities were very weak. From 1945 until 1962 the Liberal’s leader was Clement Davies who represented the Welsh constituency of Montgomeryshire. In urban areas Welsh identity became wrapped up in the Labour Party. These areas were overwhelmingly working class, and therefore the understanding was that Labour, the party of the working class, was also the party of Wales, as it was working class. From 1918 (when Labour was still a third party) until the 2009 European election, Labour came first in every Welsh election, often gaining an absolute majority of the vote, in areas in South Wales it could often depend on 80% of the vote.
Welsh nationalism began a slow rise in the post-war era. Cardiff was declared as capital in 1955, and in 1964 the new Labour government appointed the first Secretary of State for Wales, giving it administrative devolution for the first time. Nationalism grew particularly with flooding of a Welsh valley and village in 1965 for a reservoir for Liverpool. Plaid Cymru first became a fixture in British electoral politics in 1966 when they took the Carmarthen constituency in a 1966 by-election, coming from third to take the seat and gaining 22% of the vote. The party had briefly won a by-election in 1943, but this was on pacifist rather than nationalist grounds. There was also a small terrorist movement by the 1970s. Fear of Welsh nationalism in the Labour Party led to Labour support for devolution, this was very controversial within the party however. For example future Labour leader Neil Kinnock stated “between the mid-sixteenth century and the mid-eighteenth century Wales had practically no history at all, and even before that it was the history of rural brigands who have been ennobled by being called princes”. In other words, according to Kinnock, Wales was not, in any way, a nation. In order to placate this wing of the party a threshold was put on the referendum that not only would devolution have to gain majority support it would also have to gain the support of 40% of all registered voters in Wales. In the end they needn’t have bothered: the referendum was defeated by almost 80% to 20%.
Under Thatcher antagonism against Westminster spread as Wales’ industrial heartland was affected by her policies. To add insult to injury, for 11 years Wales had a Secretary of State for Wales who did not represent a Welsh constituency. Famously Welsh Secretary of State John Redmond proved he did not know the Welsh national anthem in one horrendous TV moment.
Unlike Scotland, devolution in Wales was not developed by ‘constitutional convention’, but as Labour Party policy. In 1997 when they returned to power devolution was put to referendum, passing only barely, 50.3% to 49.7%. According to Alistair Campbell’s diaries negative polling in the approach to the referendum caused Tony Blair to refer to the Welsh by a very rude word beginning with C, but the referendum did pass. The referendum was scheduled a week after the Scottish one, likely to receive a bounce from that election. Several reasons can be proposed for the closeness of it. On the one hand the comparative weakness of Welsh identity compared to Scotland. For another because the Assembly enjoys much less power than Scotland and so the no campaign argued that it was nothing more than an extra layer of bureaucracy. In truth, the policy had its internal Labour opponents too who saw it variously as a first step towards nationalism, a waste of time, or as potentially eroding local power bases.
The Government of Wales Act 2006 increased Welsh Assembly powers further. Most notably it can now draft full laws – with approval from Westminster, it also allowed for a referendum on full law-making powers. After the 2007 election a Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition formed. Plaid’s main demand was that such a referendum be held, and this is now set for March 3rd, 2011. Based on the scant polling, it appears likely the referendum will pass. All four major parties support a yes vote in the referendum.
Otherwise, current Assembly parties are mostly restricted to spending Wales’s block grant and administrative control of Welsh public services.
2. Electoral and Political System
The Welsh Assembly has 60 seats held by Assembly Members (AMs). These are elected by the Additional Member System. Each voter, in essence, has two votes – a constituency vote and a regional vote. 40 AMs are elected through single seat constituencies. These constituencies are the same as the 40 seats apportioned to Wales in Westminster elections, and in each seat a candidate is elected by First Past the Post, that candidate who receives the most votes, wins. The remaining 20 AMs are elected in five regions, which each elect four AMs. Now for the regional vote each voter votes for a party – not for a candidate. Seats are then apportioned using the d’Hondt method of proportional representation which is to say that a party’s regional vote is divided by the number of seats it holds + 1 (as dividing by 0 = 0) and then the largest party is awarded a seat, then the votes are recalculated and the next largest party is awarded a seat and so on. While this is supposed to produce proportionality it produces anomalies, as we can see from this example from South Wales West:
Party | Regional Vote | d’Hondt entitled | Constituencies | List Seats | Total Seats | Difference |
Labour | 35.80% | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7 | +2 |
Plaid Cymru | 20.00% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Conservatives | 13.60% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Liberal Democrats | 11.00% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Total | 7 | 4 | 11 |
As we can see, Labour gained a bonus of 2 above strict d’Hondt proportionality with one seat each coming from the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The system is victim to an imbalance, there is a ratio of 2:1 constituency seats to regional seats and thus there are not enough seats to make up for Labour dominance in the constituency seats. What’s more with only four regional seats per region the effective threshold for gaining a seat is very high. According to Professors Rallings and Thrasher of Plymouth University the effective threshold for gaining a seat in a Welsh region is between 7.1% and 8.3%, which effectively cuts out minor parties. In the last Welsh Assembly election the BNP got 4.3%, UKIP got 4% and the Greens got 3.5%. None of these parties got seats. As a Masters student I produced a miniature study on the electoral systems of Scotland and Wales, and concluded that the Welsh system was substantially less proportional, to the degree that at the last election Labour received eight more AMs than a proportional outcome. The chief benefit of this disproportionately is obviously the largest party, and this being Wales the largest party is always the Labour Party. Indeed, the Labour Party was able to form a single party government in Wales from 2003-7 as it received thirty of the sixty seats, and it is certainly possible that Labour could receive an absolute majority on the Assembly. Indeed, this appears to be the aim, to institute a form of devolution that allowed Labour to receive absolute majorities, for it was only through its worst Welsh popular vote since 1918 was Labour unable to achieve this in 1999 (missing out by 3 seats). If Labour had desired absolute majorities, it may be asked, why did it institute a system that included a proportional element, however weak? Initially Welsh Labour had planned to implement an Assembly with simply eighty seats elected by FPTP, a system that would have likely produced large-scale Labour dominance. This then came in from pressure from Labour HQ. The reason appears to be because Labour was planning on instituting a more proportional system in Scotland (where such a system would stop the SNP gaining a majority) and was also investigating holding a referendum into a more proportional system at Westminster. Finally, the Lib Dems may have turned against the Assembly without a proportional element, and as we can see, the devolution referendum was only won by a knife edge anyway.
Once elected the AMs vote on who to nominate to become First Minister within four weeks of election, as in Scotland.
3. Political Parties and Party System
Wales can be said, to some extent, to be a dominant party system. That is Wales is a democracy, clearly, but one party clearly dominates – the Welsh Labour Party. The only way to boot out Labour in the Welsh Assembly is a proposed, and slightly unlikely, ‘rainbow coalition’ of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, this was briefly attempted after the 2007 election, but failed to get off the ground and so the Labour-Plaid Cymru government was negotiated. The only alternative for reaching power for these three parties is to form a coalition with Labour in the event they do not achieve a majority. This section will outline the major parties their ideologies, leadership and policies.
Welsh Labour Party (Welsh: Llafur Cymru) is the Labour section in Wales. Unlike the Scottish Labour Party, the party does not enjoy a separate autonomous existence from the mother party, for example not holding a leader, technically there is only a leader of the Welsh Assembly Party, nor is ‘Welsh Labour Party’ or any variants thus registered with the electoral commission. The party has historically dominated Wales, as I mentioned above, historically being capable of gaining more than 50% of the vote in Wales. Since then its vote has fallen somewhat, but it remains dominant, arguably even hegemonic, for while it continues to dominate votes, seats and politics, the opposition is fractured into at least three parties. The party currently holds 26 of the 60 seats in the Welsh Assembly, and governs in coalition with Plaid Cymru.
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| Rhodri Morgan, long-time First Minister and de factoWelsh Labour Party leader. |
The party has occasionally suffered from attempts to influence it from London. This can be seen in its early history regarding leaders and First Ministers. Tony Blair’s desire was for Scottish and Welsh secretaries to simply transfer to the First Minister position, and thereby provide a certain administrative continuity. This was simple in Scotland – Donald Dewar was elected Scottish First Minister unopposed, but in Wales Blair’s original First Minister was Ron Davies, and Davies was elected the candidate for First Minister at a special conference against Rhodri Morgan. Unfortunately for him, he was found by the press engaging in a so-called ‘moment of madness’ on Clapham Common, a well known gay meeting place where he agreed to go to dinner with a man who subsequently mugged him. The full details of the incident never emerged, but Davies resigned his post. His replacement Alun Michael was then urged to run for the position by Blair. Blair liked Michael, who was a Blairite and had an extreme dislike for Morgan, who tended to be more ‘Old Labour’ in his views. Michael turned out to be a deeply unpopular First Minister, and his own party plotted against him. In any case he had never really wanted the job, and he eventually resigned, finally allowing Rhodri Morgan to become First Minister. Labour had been attempting to run a minority administration (having fallen three seats short of majority in 1999) and Morgan formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, bringing stability to the government. Morgan sought to put “clear red water” between himself and ‘New Labour’, and rejected the introduction of markets into public services, preferring ‘collaboration’ between public service providers. Morgan remained First Minister until December 2009, when he stepped down saying that he’d been First Minister for long enough, but there were doubts about his health. During his time in power he led a Labour-Lib Dem administration, a Labour single party administration and a Labour-Plaid Cymru administration.
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| Carwyn Jones, current First Minister and de facto Welsh Labour leader |
His replacement as de facto Welsh Labour leader and First Minister was Carwyn Jones. Since Labour’s defeat in May 2010 Jones is now the most powerful Labour politician in Britain. An AM since 1999 and a regular fixture in the Welsh government Carwyn is an experienced Welsh politician. He is relatively young, however, at only 42. Bound as he is to the ‘One Wales’ coalition agreement with Plaid Cymru Carwyn has little room for manoeuvre from previously established policy, but his leadership manifesto expressed a desire for increased educational spending, and to reach out to the isolated North and West of Wales. A fluent Welsh speaker Carwyn can be expected to have increased popularity in these areas where Welsh is often spoken as a first language.
Due to cuts to the Welsh block grant, as in Scotland and Northern Ireland, much of the election can be expected to focus on spending cuts. Welsh Labour can therefore be expected to defend its 2011 budget which passed in December, and which carries a four year plan for cutting the budget. The budget is scheduled to be cut by £1.8 billion by 2011. In order to do this the Welsh coalition has cut health education and local government funding by about 7.6% in real terms.
Other policies are currently under review, though the government is of course continuing to implement the provisions of its ‘One Wales’ agreement with Plaid Cymru, which include the referendum on further powers for the Assembly, more affordable housing, a rail building programme to link North and South Wales more effectively, and environmentalist policies.
Labour’s 2007 election result was strongly linked to Tony Blair. A poor result, Labour can therefore be seen as likely to rebound slightly in opposition to the Coalition government at Westminster. It is polling well, and may benefit, in particular, from a potential Lib Dem collapse. Turnout has always been low in Welsh Assembly elections suggesting a low motivation to turn out for Labour voters. With the Conservatives now in power at Westminster there may be a higher motivation to turn out from Labour supporters to score a hit against the Coalition in Westminster. Labour’s aim will surely be to achieve its first absolute majority in Wales, and this target is fully within its reach. If not a minority government is possible, but not especially likely and viable. The party could form a coalition with the Lib Dems but considering the Westminster situation this is unlikely to be popular, and in any case the Lib Dems may not hold enough seats to provide a reliable partner. A coalition with the Conservatives is obviously highly improbable, so that leaves a coalition with Plaid Cymru by the process of elimination. Either way, it is extremely unlikely that Welsh Labour will not be in government after May.
Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales. Founded in 1925, Plaid, as it is usually known, was more of a pressure group during its early history. It was only with the 1966 Carmathen by-election that Plaid first gained a seat at Westminster, riding a wave of Welsh nationalism from the recent flooding of a Welsh valley and village for a reservoir for Liverpool. While the party’s long-term aim has always been separatism in reality the party has more often been a Welsh language party, arguing for the protection and retention of the language. The party has therefore always been fairly regionalised to the North and West of Wales where Welsh speaking and identity is strongest, and indeed it only ran candidates in all Welsh constituencies in 1970. The party continued to be strong in the 1970s and it grew a taste for direct action. After Margaret Thatcher promised a Welsh language TV channel and then rescinded her promise on election, for example, two thousand Plaid Cymru members pledged not to pay their TV licenses, risking prison sentences, and party President Dr. Gwynfor Evans threatened to hunger strike until death unless a Welsh language channel was established. In the end Mrs. Thatcher established S4C, a rare u-turn on her part.
Historically Plaid had theoretically attempted to represent all nationalists, of whatever ideological stripe. In reality it had often moved around the political spectrum depending on who led it – with an unfortunate dalliance with fascism in the 1930s, but had mostly tended to unite the historic Welsh traditions of pacifism, religious non-conformism and radicalism, with a more leftist appeal. During the 1980s Plaid Cymru became a more solidly left-of-centre party, and the internal ideological divide became between a moderate social democratic wing and a more radical socialist ideology. The party adopted a ‘decentralised socialist state’ as a constitutional aim. Plaid’s setting up as a left-wing party had several causes. Firstly the party had tended to be slightly left-of-centre anyway; secondly anti-Thatcher feeling in Wales was high, thirdly its primary competition was with the Labour Party and fourth this allowed it to gain more traction in the South of Wales where Socialism was of stronger appeal than Welsh nationalism. During the 1990s it would engage in a brief electoral alliance with the Green Party, which allowed Cynog Dafis to win a seat as a joint Plaid-Green candidate, but this alliance ended around 1995. Plaid had, however, solidified its reputation not just as a left-of-centre party but as a party to the left of the Labour Party. This contrasts with the SNP, who, while centre-left, campaign on virtually the same ideological plane as the Scottish Labour Party.
At Westminster the party generally cooperates with the SNP and the two parties form a joint group and generally vote together. Plaid has also established strong links with Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalist party. Plaid and the SNP cooperate in the European Free Alliance in Europe which is allied to the European Green Party.
The period immediately after the establishment of the Assembly was good for Plaid. They won 30.5% of the regional vote and 17 seats in the first Welsh Assembly election, completely shell-shocking Labour in the process, who scored a pitiful result. They extended themselves into Labour’s Southern Welsh heartlands. In 2001 they achieved their best ever Westminster popular vote with 14.3% of the Welsh vote, but they begun to fall back after that, Welsh nationalism declining as Rhodri Morgan instituted himself as an effective leader, who always had relatively left-wing and slightly nationalist views.
In 2007 they gained votes and seats again, with 15 seats the second biggest party in the Assembly, though the Conservatives actually beat them by 0.4% of the regional vote. After 2007 they initially attempted to form a ‘rainbow coalition’ with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats but in the end formed a coalition with Labour, oddly, as typically a party will attempt to form a coalition with the smallest possible partner, and Plaid was the second largest party in the Assembly. Still, this gave the new government 41 seats, more than 2/3rds of the Assembly, a handsome majority. This was Plaid’s first taste of government in its 82 year history. Key Plaid provisions were implemented in the One Wales agreement, and Plaid has generally worked well with Labour.
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| Ieuan Wyn Jones, Plaid Cymru leader and Deputy First Minister. |
The party’s current leader, and Deputy First Minister, is Ieuan Wyn Jones. Jones is seen as a pragmatist in his party who steers a course between its more socialist members and the more nationalist ones. He has been described by Welsh Conservative leader Nick Bourne as "somebody who's trustworthy, somebody who's reliable", “a safe pair of hands” and “a good leader for his party”, which coming from a political opponent is impressive stuff. Jones is seen as a remarkable listener too, always a good quality in a politician. Jones’s pluralist instincts and respect by oppositions from all parties go a long way to explain why it was that Labour picked Plaid as coalition partner in 2007 and why the Conservatives thought they could work with Plaid in the aborted rainbow coalition.
In 2006 the party embarked on a rebranding process, adopting a new logo, changing the party colours from green and red to yellow, and adopting ‘Plaid’ as its usual name. This also extended into its advertising with the party adopting the slogan ‘Think Different. Think Plaid.’ in 2010, giving it a more modern appeal. Current party policy is tied up in the One Wales agreement, and the party is most concerned with getting the legislative powers referendum passed. Otherwise Plaid policy includes support for a Maximum Wage, and increased childcare, more money for Wales, a raft of environmentalist policy, such as keeping Wales GM-free, and a concern for housing policy. Plaid’s 2011 campaign can be reasonably expected to focus on its ability to cut more fairly than other parties in the wake of forced budget cuts.
Plaid’s best hope at remaining in power is to prevent Labour from achieving a majority and to form another coalition with it. Of the parties in the Welsh Assembly Plaid remains Labour’s most likely partner.
Welsh Conservative Party (Welsh: Ceidwadwyr Cymreig). The Welsh Conservatives, like Welsh Labour, do not enjoy nearly the same level of autonomy from the UK party as their Scottish section. While the Scottish section is practically a party within a party, the Welsh Conservatives enjoy a much more centralised existence. Despite (or perhaps because of) this it has been far the most successful of the two territorial branches, gaining votes at every Welsh Assembly election, and hitting 21.4% of the regional vote in 2007, just edging out Plaid Cymru to second by 0.4% (though quirks of the electoral system mean Plaid Cymru got 3 more seats). It did well in the 2010 election too, winning eight of Wales’s forty seats, an increase of five, especially encouraging given that the party held no Welsh seats at all between 1997 and 2005. Its greatest success was perhaps the 2009 European election when it just edged out Labour to win the highest popular vote, the first time Labour had not won the popular vote in Wales since 1918.
Like the Scottish party, the Welsh party is somewhat entitled to make its own policies, but the Welsh party tends to stick much more closely to the UK line, it tends to be more Thatcherite and cynical of devolution than the Scottish party. Nonetheless the party attempted to form an anti-Labour rainbow coalition in 2007, of Plaid, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the Welsh Liberal Democrat executive vetoed it after its negotiation. The party has also indicated it may not cut spending in the same way as at Westminster and been highly critical of the Labour-Plaid government for cutting health spending in Wales. It scored a couple of mini-victories when Mohammad Asghar, a Plaid Cymru AM, and the first ever ethnic minority AM, defected to the Tories in late 2009, and when John Marek, a former Independent and Labour AM defected the same year. By recruiting these two figures identified with the left of the Welsh spectrum the Tories sought to broaden their appeal.
The party has historically had problems with the notion that is anti-Welsh, something that does still continue to this day. In the first half of the 20th Century the Tories were identified with the Anglican Church, against Welsh non-conformism and later they came to be identified with the destruction of industry, unpopular Welsh secretaries from outside Wales such as John Redwood, and opposition to devolution. In fairness, a lot of this ignores things like it being the Conservatives who set up S4C, the Welsh language channel, who created the first cabinet minister with responsibility for Wales, giving Wales administrative devolution, and who equalised the status of Welsh and English in 1992. The party has been far been more capable of battling such claims than in Scotland though certain vestiges of this thinking remain. In particular the current Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillan, brings back memories of Conservative Welsh secretaries past, for, while she was born in Cardiff, she left when she was age 11 and now represents a constituency in Buckinghamshire. She caused some embarrassment to the Conservative Party when in the first of three Welsh election debates in the 2010 election she referred to Rhodri Morgan as still being First Minister, rather than his replacement Carwyn Jones. She was replaced in the next two debates by Nick Bourne, the party’s leader in the Assembly.
An AM since 1999, Bourne was previously a Professor of Law, and is fluent in Welsh. Bourne had headed the No campaign against devolution, but has since come to a view of accommodation with devolution, focusing on the need for the Welsh Tories to develop more ‘community-focused’ policies, which he views as ‘more Welsh’. He has also supported further powers for the Assembly. An academic, thoughtful figure, Bourne suffered a major leadership wobble in 2009 when the Conservatives released a dossier which included several personal attacks on Rhodri Morgan. Bourne sought to distance himself from this but it then became clear he had signed off on this. This was the trigger for what appeared to be a fully fledged plot to oust him. This was however, not the sole cause. Bourne had poor expenses (claiming an iPod) and was accused of becoming shut off from colleagues. However Bourne remains to this day, demonstrating he weathered a seemingly large storm. If Bourne is perceived to have performed poorly the leadership question may need revisiting, but for now his position appears fairly secure.
Welsh Conservative policy, like others, currently lacks flesh. The party has been particularly critical of cuts of the NHS but has not stated where they would cut to compensate.
Of the four parties in the Welsh Assembly it is probably fair to describe the Conservatives as having the least chance of governing after May. For a start it is incredibly unlikely they will be able to form a government with Labour, assuming Labour does not win a majority (it is unlikely they would even want to) and while the Rainbow Coalition idea is theoretically possible, relations with Plaid have somewhat cooled now both parties are on opposite sides of the chamber in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. The Tories best hope then is probably to come in second and be positioned to form the main opposition if Plaid and Labour do not renew their coalition. The party is polling fairly stably currently.
Welsh Liberal Democrats (Welsh: Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru). The smallest party in the Welsh Assembly, with only six seats at the last election, the Welsh Liberal Democrats were, the best prepared for devolution. As in Scotland the party’s federal structure means that the Welsh Liberal Democrats enjoy, and have always enjoyed, wide ranging autonomy, with a separate leadership, policies and candidate selection. The party has historically been strong in rural Central Wales, after all this is the country of David Lloyd George, and Montgomeryshire represents one of the few British constituencies that was represented by a Liberal for the vast majority of the 20th Century (though it was won by the Conservatives in 2010, likely a result of the personal life of the incumbent Lembit Opik). This often puts it in direct competition with Plaid Cymru who have mostly sprouted up in their former areas.
The party was rebuffed from coalition negotiations in 1999, but a coalition was formed from 2000-3 with Labour once Rhodri Morgan took over. Nonetheless leader Mike German became Deputy First Minister, and the party got through a couple of key policies. It is probably fair to suggest that the Welsh party follows the UK’s general policy direction more closely than the Scottish party however.
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| The Welsh Liberal Democrats leader, Kirsty Williams |
The party’s current leader (since 2008) is Kirsty Williams. At only 39 years old Williams is relatively young, and is also the first female leader of a party in the Assembly (in an Assembly, that is, notably, majority female). A member of the Liberal Party since she was fifteen years old her history is in public relations and marketing. Williams has generally stuck fairly closely to the line of the national party, and is a competent performer. She has worked closely with the Conservatives to oppose the Labour-Plaid Cymru government.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats have held six seats in every Welsh election so far. Yet polling is not positive for them, with the Westminster coalition apparently affecting their popularity negatively. If current polls were repeated at the election the Lib Dems would go down to just two seats. The primary reason for this is that polling at around 5% on the regional vote they are at risk of falling below the ~8% effective threshold for regional seats. Yet the party may stabilise as its gets closer to the election. Nonetheless if such figures are repeated it will be unlikely to make a reliable coalition partner, and in any case considering the Westminster situation Welsh Labour is not particularly well disposed towards it.
Independents and minor parties. Currently the seat of Blaenau Gwent is held by independent Trish Law. This seat was originally won by her husband Peter Law who was angered by the imposition of an all-women’s shortlist at the 2005 election by the UK party in the Westminster constituency. Law died and was replaced by his wife in a by-election, but now six years on from the original controversy it seems likely that the seat will return to Labour as its Westminster equivalent did in May. Minor parties have not found much success in Wales, in contrast to Scotland, because the effective threshold for representation is much higher. Of the minor parties the BNP, UKIP and Greens all have the best chance of gaining a regional seat, polling at 4.3%, 4.0%, and 3.5% respectively at the last election. These parties will need to perform much better in order to earn a seat. Historically the Socialist Labour Party also did well, but has declined to just 1.2%. Nonetheless the potential does exist for UKIP to pick up Conservative defectors or the Greens to pick up Lib Dem ones, but UKIP has always been very weak in Wales, and there is no sign of a great upswing in either party. There was, for a time, an attempt to craft a left-of-labour Welsh regionalist party called Forward Wales, but despite much fanfare it never went anywhere.
4. Major Issues
Budget cuts are likely to remain the largest issue with parties debating the 2010 Welsh budget and how far it is. Welsh Labour’s decision to cut the NHS is a particular point of contention and the Conservatives and Lib Dems argue that frontline services are being cut when they could have been protected by cutting waste.
Welsh nationalism will play some role but after the Welsh powers referendum there is unlikely to be much taste for further devolution.
Wales is the poorest region of the UK and therefore all political parties will argue over ways to improve the local economy and infrastructure while maintaining cuts.
5. Prior Election Results
These results are here to provide a picture of the trends over the last few years.
5.1 2008 Welsh local election results
Unfortunately popular vote counts for Welsh local elections are not available. Wales has 22 unitary local authorities elected by first past the post on four year terms.
Party | Councillors | Change |
Labour | 342 | -124 |
Plaid Cymru | 205 | +31 |
Conservatives | 174 | +61 |
Liberal Democrats | 162 | +21 |
Others | 381 | +9 |
The results were seen as an ‘anyone but Labour’ vote with every party apart from Labour gaining seats. Labour lost control of several important councils, but the party retained the plurality of Welsh councillors, and retained its dominant position in Welsh local government. It is worth noting that considering that there is generally a low turnout at local elections it is more than possible that Labour supporters simply stayed at home.
5.2 2009 Welsh European Parliamentary Election
Wales elects four MEPs to the European Parliament through party-list proportional representation.
Party | Vote % | Change | Seats | Change |
Conservatives | 21.2% | +1.8% | 1 | 0 |
Labour | 20.3% | -12.2% | 1 | -1 |
Plaid Cymru | 18.5% | +1.1% | 1 | 0 |
UKIP | 12.8% | +2.3% | 1 | +1 |
Liberal Democrats | 10.7% | +0.2% | ||
Greens | 5.6% | +2.0% | ||
BNP | 5.4% | +2.5% | ||
Others | 5.5% | +2.3% |
The 2009 election was a shock to Welsh Labour, as it fell into second place for the first time, losing 12.2% of the vote. However the pattern of voting did not show any particular newfound love for the Conservatives, or anyone else, and repeated the same ‘anyone but Labour’ pattern of the prior year. With turnout at a meagre 30.4%, it appears more than Labour supporters simply did not vote than anything else once again.
5.3 2010 Westminster Election in Wales
As in the rest of the UK Wales of course elects its MPs via FPTP. Wales has forty constituencies.
Party | Vote % | Change | Seats | Change |
Labour | 36.2% | -6.5% | 26 | -4 |
Conservatives | 26.1% | +4.7% | 8 | +5 |
Liberal Democrats | 20.1% | +1.7% | 3 | -1 |
Plaid Cymru | 11.3% | -1.3% | 3 | +1 |
Others | 6.3% | +1.4% | 0 | -1* |
*A left-wing independent in Blaenau Gwent, originally held by Peter Law, the seat was held by his election agent Dai Davies in a by-election in 2006. Labour won the seat back in 2010, one of its few gains of the night.
Labour lost five seats on the night in May, retaking Blaenau Gwent to compensate slightly. It also lost 6.5% of the vote and was reduced to its lowest number of seats since 1987. Yet they remained the dominant party in Wales, beating the Tories by a 10 point margin. The Tories nonetheless had a good result. Unlike Scotland where the party has essentially gone nowhere in thirteen years in Wales the party more than doubled their seats and gained 4.7% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru both had more mixed results. The Lib Dems gained some votes, but lost their historic stronghold of Montgomeryshire, seat of eccentric Lib Dem Lembit Opik, to the Conservatives, albeit holding the rest of their seats. Plaid Cymru lost votes but after boundary changes had notionally lost it a seat, regained it back.
5.4 2007 Welsh Assembly election results
5.4 2007 Welsh Assembly election results
The Welsh Assembly is of course elected by Additional Member System as described above. These represent the last set of elections for Wales. The boundaries changed in 2007, and therefore these reflect changes from the notional result.
Party | Constituencies | Change | Regions | Change | Total Seats | Change | ||||
Votes | Seats | Votes | Seats | Votes | Seats | Votes | Seats | |||
Labour | 32.2% | 24 | -7.8% | -5 | 29.6% | 2 | -6.9% | +2 | 26 | -4 |
Plaid Cymru | 22.4% | 7 | +1.2% | +1 | 21.0% | 8 | +1.3% | +2 | 15 | +3 |
Conservatives | 22.4% | 5 | +2.4% | +4 | 21.4% | 7 | +2.3% | -3 | 12 | +1 |
Liberal Democrats | 14.8% | 3 | +0.6% | 0 | 11.7% | 3 | -1.0% | 0 | 6 | 0 |
BNP | N/A | N/A | 0 | 4.3% | 0 | +4.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
UKIP | 1.8% | -0.5% | 0 | 4.0% | 0 | +0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Greens | N/A | N/A | 0 | 3.5% | 0 | -0.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Others | 6.5% | 1* | +5.0% | +1 | 4.4% | 0 | +2.0% | 0 | 1* | 0 |
*Peter Law had represented the constituency as a Labour AM in the prior parliament. He resigned the party whip in 2005, and died in 2006. Trish Law then won the seat in the ensuing by-election and gained the seat proper in 2007.
As can be seen Labour achieved only 32.2% in the constituency vote and 29.6% in the regional vote, yet won a lofty 26 seats, just five short of a majority. The electoral system in Wales clearly over-represents the largest party. Labour ‘should’ have only received 18 seats, on a proportional outcome. The Conservatives gained the most votes, but only gained a single seat, whereas Plaid gained fewer votes but romped home with three gains. The Lib Dems remained stable. Worryingly the BNP gained four points in the regional vote though this still left it short of a seat, albeit the party did come 5th as a result. There was actually a slight increase in turnout though it was still relatively low (43.7%, a gain of 5.5%). There still may be a case of the anti-Labour vote coming out in force then.
6. Current AMs
 |
| Welsh Assembly constituencies and regions |
Below are the current constituencies, incumbents, majority and the swings required in every seat in Wales. Rather conveniently the seats were changed in 2007 and so remain exactly the same in 2011. Also, notably, the forty constituency seats perfectly match the forty seats that Wales holds at Westminster. Therefore we have included the Westminster constituency result, for your perusal as well. Colours signify party, strikethroughs signify the AM is standing down, and multiple colours signify a defection.
Region | Constituency | AM | Majority | Swing Required | GE2010 Result | ||||
Mid and West Wales | Brecon & Radnorshire | Kirsty Williams | 5354 | 9.3% | LD Hold | ||||
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr | Rhodri Glyn Thomas | 8469 | 14.5% | PC Hold | |||||
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South | Angela Burns | 92 | 0.2% | 0.5% | CON | Gain | |||
Ceredigion | Elin Jones | 3955 | 6.6% | LD Hold | |||||
Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Dafydd Elis-Thomas | 8868 | 20.1% | PC Hold | |||||
Llanelli | Helen Mary Jones | 3884 | 7.1% | LAB Hold | |||||
Montgomeryshire | 1979 | 4.5% | CON | Gain | |||||
Preseli Pembrokeshire | Paul Davies | 3205 | 5.6% | CON Hold | |||||
List Seats | Alun Davies | ||||||||
Joyce Watson | |||||||||
Nick Bourne | |||||||||
Nerys Evans | |||||||||
North Wales | Aberconwy | 1693 | 4.1% | CON | Gain | ||||
Alyn & Deeside | Carl Sargeant | 3362 | 8% | LAB Hold | |||||
Arfon | Alun Ffred Jones | 5018 | 12.8% | PC | Gain | ||||
Clwyd South | 1119 | 2.9% | LAB Hold | ||||||
Clwyd West | Darren Millar | 1596 | 3.2% | CON Hold | |||||
Delyn | Sandy Mewies | 511 | 1.2% | LAB Hold | |||||
Vale of Clwyd | Ann Jones | 92 | 0.2% | LAB Hold | |||||
Wrexham | Lesley Griffiths | 1250 | 3.2% | LAB Hold | |||||
Ynys Mons | Ieuan Wyn Jones | 4392 | 8.2% | LAB Hold | |||||
List Seats | Brynle Williams | ||||||||
Mark Isherwood | |||||||||
Eleanor Burnham | |||||||||
South Wales Central | Cardiff Central | 6565 | 14.7% | LD Hold | |||||
Cardiff North | Jonathan Morgan | 4844 | 7.2% | CON | Gain | ||||
Cardiff South & Penarth | 2754 | 5.2% | LAB Hold | ||||||
Cardiff West | 3698 | 6.9% | LAB Hold | ||||||
Cynon Valley | Christine Chapman | 5623 | 14.4% | LAB Hold | |||||
Pontypridd | 3347 | 7.1% | LAB Hold | ||||||
Rhondda | Leighton Andrews | 6215 | 14.1% | LAB Hold | |||||
Vale of Glamorgan | Jane Hutt | 83 | 0.1% | CON | Gain | ||||
List Seats | Leanne Wood | ||||||||
David Melding | |||||||||
Chris Franks | |||||||||
Andrew Davies | |||||||||
South Wales East | Blaenau Gwent | 5357 | 11.4% | LAB | Gain | ||||
Caerphilly | Jeff Cuthbert | 2287 | 4.4% | LAB Hold | |||||
Islwyn | 2218 | 4.7% | LAB Hold | ||||||
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney | Huw Lewis | 4581 | 10.9% | LAB Hold | |||||
Monmouth | Nick Ramsay | 8469 | 14.3% | CON Hold | |||||
Newport East | John Griffiths | 875 | 2.2% | 4.7% | LAB Hold | ||||
Newport West | Rosemary Butler | 1401 | 3% | LAB Hold | |||||
Torfaen | Lynne Neagle | 5396 | 11.6% | LAB Hold | |||||
List Seats | Jocelyn Davies | ||||||||
William Graham | |||||||||
Mohammad Asfghar | |||||||||
South Wales West | Aberavon | 6571 | 16% | LAB Hold | |||||
Bridgend | Carwyn Jones | 2556 | 5.2% | LAB Hold | |||||
Gower | Edwina Hart | 1192 | 2.2% | LAB Hold | |||||
Neath | Gwenda Thomas | 1944 | 3.9% | LAB Hold | |||||
Ogmore | Janice Gregory | 7900 | 17.4% | LAB Hold | |||||
Swansea East | 4961 | 12% | LAB Hold | ||||||
Swansea West | 1511 | 3.3% | LAB Hold | ||||||
List Seats | Bethan Jenkins | ||||||||
Peter Black | |||||||||
David Lloyd | |||||||||
7. Resources
The BBC Welsh Politics section is vital especially Betsan Powys’s blog.
Wales Online is another excellent source for Welsh news.
There are not currently a large number of books on Welsh politics, and this is a poorly researched area in academic and journalistic terms. As far as I can tell Poor Man’s Parliament: 10 years of the Welsh Assembly appears to be the only easily obtainable book on the subject, though it appears to be more journalistic than academic.
