Labour comfortably hold Leicester South

In amongst the many elections taking place last Thursday there was the small matter of a new Member of Parliament to find. The by-election to replace Sir Peter Soulsby as the MP for Leicester South was easily won by Labour as Jon Ashworth received almost 60% of the vote; an 8.3% swing from last year's General Election.

By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	19771	57.8%	+12.3%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	7693	22.5%	-4.4%
Jane Hunt (CON)	5169	15.1%	-6.2%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	994	2.9%	+1.4%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	553	1.6%	+1.6%

The Labour hold was hardly a surprise, but rather less expected was the resilience of the Liberal Democrat vote. Given their performance in the Barnsley Central by-election most were expecting the Lib Dems to slip into third place, but they stayed comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. Of course, this is scant consolation given the party's other poor results last week but their candidate Zaffur Huq should be pleased with himself. He received more votes in Leicester South than the Liberal Democrats' mayoral candidate managed across the whole city. The Lib Dems could do worse than look at this result, along with others that bucked the trend, as they regroup from this round of elections.

The Conservatives doing poorly in a Westminster by-election is hardly news but it is interesting that UKIP did not profit. The anti-EU party surprised everyone as they snatched second place in Barnsley and although they doubled their vote share from last May here they still lost their deposit by some way. The fact this by-election took place in conjunction with local council elections was sure to favour the more established parties in the city but UKIP's PR disasters during the campaign can't have helped their chances. I think we'll need to wait until the next Parliamentary by-election to see if Barnsley was a flash in the pan for Nigel Farage's party or the start of something a little more substantial.

As for forthcoming Westminster by-elections the only one confirmed is Belfast West, for which the writ has yet to be moved.

Don’t forget about Leicester South!

A Parliamentary by-election is usually a relatively rare and exciting (well, I speak for myself!) event but the one taking place today in Leicester South is unlikely to live long in the memory. Not only is it buried in a night with along with the English local elections, the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Irish Assembly, the Welsh Assembly, the AV referendum and Northern Ireland locals(!) Labour are sure to win with ease. Those lucky ducks in Leicester South have 4 ballots to put in the box between the AV referendum, the locals, their first elected mayor and this by-election.

The by-election was called when Sir Peter Soulsby MP announced he was standing down to campaign for the Leicester mayoral election, for which he is the Labour Party candidate (and clear favourite).

Labour selected Jonathan Ashworth for the seat. Ashworth is Ed Miliband's 'head of party relations' and he became the immediate favourite. The Lib Dems initial candidate Parmjit Singh Gill then resigned in mysterious circumstances and was replaced by Zaffur Haq. A recent Survation poll has reaffirmed Ashworth's favourite status, showing him on 61% to 20% for Hunt (Con) and 14% for Haq (LD).

The big news late in the campaign is a mysterious fake Liberal Democrat leaflet outlining the party's policy on homosexuality. The leaflet was distributed in Muslim areas with the clear intent to incite homophobic voters within the community.

According to Political Scrapbook, this isn't the first time this dirty trick has been tried in Leicester South as a similar incident occurred during the 2004 by-election campaign, which the Liberal Democrats won. The most baffling part of this sorry episode is that the Lib Dems have no realistic chance of winning this time, so why employ such underhand tactics?

Anyway, here's the 2010 result and the key articles we have written on the by-election:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
N/C (BNP)	3.0%
N/C (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	-

 

1. Soulsby resigns

2. Labour and Liberal Democrats select their candidates

3. Lib Dem candidate resigns and UKIP select

4. Conservatives select their candidate

5. Survation poll shows Labour miles ahead and UKIP candidate in a spot of bother

Labour on course for easy Leicester South win

A Survation poll for the Independent on Sunday shows that Labour's Jonathan Ashworth is set for a comfortable victory in this week's Parliamentary by-election in Leicester South. The contest has slipped under the radar somewhat with the national media attention focussed on the AV Referendum and the Scottish Parliament Elections taking place on the same day, as well as the small matter of a royal wedding. Labour are defending the seat after their MP Sir Peter Soulsby stood down to contest the inaugural Mayoral election in Leicester and they have been considered strong favourites from the off. Here are the headline figures from the poll:

By-Election Candidate	Poll	+/-*
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	61%	+15
Jane Hunt (CON)	20%	-1
Zaffur Huq (LD)	14%	-13
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	5%	+3
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	0.3%	+0.3

* Changes from the GE2010 result.

Labour's increase in relation to the 2010 result has largely come at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. This is very much in line with the national polls and the result of the Barnsley Central by-election a couple of months ago. The difference between this contest and Barnsley is that the Liberal Democrats are starting from a stronger position but this poll indicates they will hold on to barely half of their support from last May. The Lib Dems do have more of a presence on the Council in Leicester but with local elections and the AV referendum taking place on the same day they are not able to commit any extra resources to this by-election. This has left Zaffur Huq very much at the mercy of national trends.

An interesting finding in this poll is that the Conservatives appear to be holding on to most of their support from the General Election. Again, this is in line with the current national polling but it would represent a change in fortunes for the Tories compared to recent Westminster by-elections. In the two that have taken place so far this Parliament the Conservatives have seen their vote share fall drastically in both, although almost certainly for different reasons. In Oldham East & Saddleworth their supporters tactically voting for the Liberal Democrat candidate in a failed attempt to prevent Labour from holding the seat and in Barnsley they leaked a lot of votes to UKIP as the anti-EU party attracted protest votes from Tories dissatisfied with the coalition. As the Lib Dems do not have any realistic chance of winning this by-election and UKIP are spread thin because of the other elections taking place the Conservatives are looking good for a comfortable second.

Although UKIP do not look likely to repeat their Barnsley performance in Leicester they may well manage to save their deposit. The absence of a BNP candidate in this by-election when they stood at the General Election is likely to help UKIP achieve the 5% required to get their money back. It is worth noting that news of the UKIP candidate Abhijit Pandya's controversial comments on Islam broke in the middle of the fieldwork and so it's not entirely clear if this will harm them. Of course, it is possible that voters sympathetic to UKIP are less likely to find Pandya's views offensive anyway.

One last thing that is worth looking at going into this by-election is how the vote share's will compare to previous elections in the constituency. As this contest is taking place on the same day as a host of other elections the circumstances are about as normal as you're going to get mid-term. Labour's vote share could be a used as a barometer to measure how far they have recovered from last May's poor election.

	1997		2001		2004 b/e	2005	2010*
Labour	58%	55%	30%	39%	46%
Conservative	24%	23%	20%	18%	21%
Liberal Democrat	14%	17%	35%	31%	27%

*As the Leicester South constituency was barely altered in the last boundary review the figures are comparable.

If Labour poll above 60% in this by-election it would represent a return to 1997 levels of support here. This would be a nice moral boost for the party if it wasn't overshadowed by their likely loss in the Scottish Parliamentary Election taking place on the same day. Equally, if the Liberal Democrats only manage 14% that would be no lower than they achieved 14 years ago when they won 46 seats nationally. In short, if the Lib Dem vote halves at this by-election it is not compelling evidence on its own to suggest the party is heading for meltdown at the next General Election. Their performance in the English Council elections will provide a much better idea of how well and, more importantly, where the Liberal Democrats can hold on to their seats they are defending.

UKIP Controversy in Leicester South

There is a, admittedly slim, chance you are wondering what has been going on in the Leicester South by-election. Early this week I realised our last post on the contest was almost two weeks ago but, quite frankly, nothing had happened since the Statement of Persons Nominated was released so there was nothing to report. Since then we have a bit of news, and it isn't too good for UKIP.

On Wednesday the Leicester Mercury picked up on an interesting entry on the UKIP candidate Abhijit Pandya's blog (H/T Lord Bonkers). Amongst other things Pandya called Islam 'morally flawed and degenerate' and freely agreed with the controversial Dutch politician Gert Wilders that the religion was a 'retarded Ideology'. Perhaps more worrying for UKIP is the fact Pandya wrote the article in question on Friday and it took until the following Wednesday to reach even the local papers. Regardless, it did finally surface and as around 20% of the population within the constituency are Muslim this doesn't appear to have been the wisest campaign move.

This 'gaffe', if you can call it that, comes in the wake of complaints that the UKIP candidate for the Leicester Mayoral contest is not up to the job. It has been widely reported that their 18-year-old candidate Regine Anderson has been largely absent from the campaign trail. The official explanation is that she is busy 'studying for her A-Levels'. It would seem 'I completely forgot about a major commitment in my life before I sought and won the selection to stand as a candidate' syndrome is quite prevalent in Leicester. Only a month ago the initial Leicester South by-election candidate for the Liberal Democrats Parmjit Singh Gill withdrew his candidacy five days after his selection when he remembered he suddenly remembered his young family.

Back to UKIP, and they have sent their leader Nigel Farage to the Midlands city to try and salvage the situation. I have to say, publicly confirming you are running a paper candidate in an election is a campaign tactic I have not come across before. To be fair, I imagine Farage is quite grateful this is all getting buried amongst the other election noise and not really reaching the national media. It will be interesting to see if these shenanigans affect how many Tories switch to UKIP in Leicester South compared to the previous two by-elections.

Here is the 2010 result with the full candidate list; for traditions sake:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
N/C (BNP)	3.0%
N/C (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	-

Candidates Confirmed in Leicester South By-Election

The Statement of Persons Nominated for the Leicester South by-election has been released today and as expected the number of candidates is quite low. The by-election is taking place on May 5^th following the resignation of Labour MP Sir Peter Soulsby. He stood down to contest Leicester's first Mayoral election, which is also taking place on May 5^th.

The sole addition to the four we already knew about is the Monster Raving Loony Party's leader Howling Laud Hope. As the only minor party UKIP should easily hold their deposit, especially if they take votes from the Conservatives as in previous by-elections. Given the current lead Labour have in the polls a win for them seems like a forgone conclusion.

Here's the full candidate list:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
N/C (BNP)	3%
N/C (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)	-

And here are some of our previous posts on this by-election if you missed them:

1. Soulsby resigns

2. Labour and Liberal Democrats select their candidates

3. Lib Dem candidate resigns and UKIP select

4. Conservatives select their candidate

 

Ps. There are no Council by-elections taking place tonight (that we know of).

Leicester South by-election date confirmed as May 5th

As expected the Leicester South by-election has been confirmed for May 5^th. The writ was moved on Tuesday which has put into place the timetable to replace the Labour MP Sir Peter Soulsby, who resigned to concentrate on his campaign to become Mayor of Leicester. Currently there are only four declared candidates for the by-election with nominations closing next Thursday. I suspect the ballot paper will be short by by-election standards given all the other elections taking place on the same day.

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
- (BNP)	3.0%
- (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%

As for the Belfast West, that will not be taking place on May 5^th. Sensible rumours have been going around that the Government didn't think holding the by-election on the same day as the other elections was wise given the different electoral systems used. We'll have to wait until at least June for the inevitable Sinn Fein victory.

Tories select Jane Hunt as their candidate for Leicester South

Although I haven't seen it officially confirmed anywhere it appears the Conservatives have chosen Jane Hunt as their candidate for the Leicester South by-election. Ross Grant, the leader of the Tory group on Leicester Council, congratulated Hunt on twitter. We eagerly await The Today Programme's coverage of this by-election!

Hunt is a Councillor on the Charnwood District Council in Leicestershire. She stood against the Labour MP Keith Vaz in Leicester East at the General Election where she managed a 4.8% swing towards her party. Another second place for Hunt seems likely in this by-election.

Here's an updated candidate list:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
Jane Hunt (CON)	21.4%
- (BNP)	3.0%
- (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%

Tories to select Leicester South candidate on Saturday

ConservativeHome are reporting that the selection meeting for the Leicester South by-election will take place on Saturday. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have already picked their candidates so whoever is chosen will have a bit of catching up to do. Here are the names the local party will select from:

Peter Bedford

Jane Hunt

Teck Khong

Bedford and Hunt are both local Councillors and Khong is a GP.

Interestingly, ConHome appear to think May 5^th is definite. Now, I'm not saying it won't be; it almost certainly will. However, to my knowledge the writ hasn't been moved yet. The same can be said for Belfast West, where voters will also face four different ballot papers if the by-election is held on May 5^th.

Gill stands down as Lib Dems’ Leicester South candidate

Just five days after getting the nod to be the Liberal Democrats' candidate for the Leicester South by-election Parmjit Singh Gill has withdrawn from the race. He cited family reasons for the decision:

"Given much reflection and after talking with my family, it is with regret that I have decided to stand down as a candidate for the by-election. I remain committed to the people of Leicester and am proud to represent the Liberal Democrats, but I have a very young family and I fear the toll that fighting the by-election with all the commitment and dedication it deserves would be too much."

We are not the only ones who find this statement a bit odd. Considering Gill has already fought, and won, a by-election campaign and, presumably, knew about his young family this time last week one wonders why he sought the candidacy in the first place! Naturally, rumours as to the real reason for Gill's resignation aren't too hard to come across. The savvy timing of the announcement during the pre-budget PMQs adds to the impression there is far more going on than has been said.

Regardless, the Liberal Democrats have moved swiftly to replace Gill as they have confirmed Zaffur Huq as their new candidate. Huq stood at the General Election in the Harborough constituency without causing much of a stir. Requiring a 4.2% swing to win the Conservative held seat the Lib Dem's vote share dropped by 3.6%. If Huq manages to limit his party's vote loss to that amount in this by-election it would be a minor miracle.

In other Leicester South news it seems UKIP have selected Abhijit Pandya as their candidate. Pandya is their current Head of Research and stood in Harrow East at the General Election, receiving 1.9% of the vote.

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Zaffur Huq (LD)	26.9%
- (CON)	21.4%
- (BNP)	3.0%
- (GRN)	1.6%
Abhijit Pandya (UKIP)	1.5%

Update: Guido has helpfully pooled all the rumours about Gill's resignation into one handy BlogPost!

Jonathan Ashworth selected as Labour’s candidate in Leicester South

Today Labour selected Jonathan Ashworth as their candidate for the forthcoming Leicester South by-election. Ashworth is currently Ed Miliband's 'Head of Party Relations' and his links to the leader will no doubt provoke allegations of parachuting. He was considered the frontrunner after the shortlist was released yesterday and didn't disappoint. Ashworth easily won the candidacy, only requiring his first preferences to win AV ballot. Given Labour are hot favourites to win this by-election Ashworth will almost certainly become the next MP for Leicester South.

Here are the full figures from the selection, courtesy of Leicester Labour:

	Votes	Vote %
Jonathan Ashworth	106	69.3%
Patrick Kitterick	44	28.8%
Neil Clayton	2	1.3%
Mian Mayat	1	0.7%
Josie Channer	0	0.0%

Earlier today the Liberal Democrats also picked their candidate. For the fifth election in a row Parmjit Singh Gill will contest this constituency for the Lib Dems having previously held the seat for 10 months in the mid-noughties. His by-election win in 2004 was an impressive result for the Liberal Democrats but Gill will be on a damage limitation mission this time. Having failed to save their deposit in Barnsley the Lib Dems look certain to drop back behind the Conservatives in this by-election, who were 5.5% behind them last May. Given the poor performance of the minor parties at the 2010 General Election it's unlikely the Liberal Democrats will fall lower than third but their share of the vote will be interesting to watch. They managed 11.7% in 1992 and 13.8% in 1997 so if they drop lower than that alarm bells will be ringing.

Here's the 2010 result, with the current declared by-elections candidates:

By-Election Candidate	2010
Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)	45.6%
Parmjit Singh Gill (LD)	26.9%
- (CON)	21.4%
- (BNP)	3.0%
- (GRN)	1.6%
- (UKIP)	1.5%

Shortlist for Labour’s Leicester South Selection

LabourList are reporting the shortlist from which Labour's candidate for the forthcoming Leicester South by-election will come from is as follows:

● Naheed Arshad-Mather

● Jonathan Ashworth

● Neil Clayton

● Patrick Kitterick

● Milan Mayat

● Josephine Channer

I should probably reiterate their disclaimer that this hasn't been officially released by the party yet, thus it could be wrong! They are suggesting Ashworth is the frontrunner and there are unconfirmed rumours that he has been endorsed by local MP Keith Vaz. Ashworth is the currently 'Head of Party Relations' for Ed Miliband, so his close ties to the leader appear to be coming in handy. Arshad-Mather Josephine Channer, a Councillor in Barking & Dagenham, is the only woman on the shortlist and the other three candidates are Leicester Councillors. The selection meeting will take place on Saturday and whoever wins the candidacy is virtually guaranteed to be the next MP for Leicester South.

 

Update: The disclaimer was worth putting in! The sole woman on the shortlist is Josephine Channer NOT Naheed Arshad-Mather.

And here’s another one…!

Just three days after the last Parliamentary by-election in Barnsley Central preparations are underway for yet another. As had been expected the Leicester South MP Sir Peter Soulsby was selected as Labour's candidate for the forthcoming Mayoral contest in the city. In line with the comments he made when announcing he candidature Soulsby is set to resign as an MP, triggering a by-election for his seat. On winning the selection Soulsby said:

"Being Leicester's Mayor is a full time job and over the next few weeks I want to spend my time talking to people across Leicester about their hopes for the future of our City…Which is why I have one further announcement - today I am making clear my intention to resign from Parliament in order to focus solely on becoming the first elected Mayor of Leicester."

So, what is the situation in Leicester South? Soulsby won quite comfortably at the General Election:

	2010
Labour	45.6%
Liberal Democrats	26.9%
Conservatives	21.4%
BNP	3.0%
Greens	1.6%
UKIP	1.5%

A resounding 8808 vote majority would suggest that the most important vote in this by-election will take place at the Labour selection meeting. However, Labour briefly lost this seat in the mid-noughties to the Liberal Democrats following a shock by-election result. Parmjit Singh Gill won the seat in a 2004 by-election on a 21.5% swing at a time the Lib Dems were doing extremely well in the polls, largely due to their opposition the Iraq war. Soulsby was the defeated Labour candidate in that by-election but he got his revenge just 10 months later at the 2005 General Election. Last May this was one of the few seats in England to produce any significant movement towards Labour as Soulsby increased his majority on a 5% swing.

What this really means for the this by-election is that if the Liberal Democrats have another huge collapse they will not be able to claim, a la Barnsley, that this is a safe Labour seat which the other parties may as well not bother with. They do have an, albeit small, presence here as four of their six Leicester Councillors represent wards in this constituency. The Lib Dems did have a much larger group on the Council before the 2007 but they lost eleven seats in the full Council election that year. Labour were the biggest benefactors as they gained 18 seats to take control of the Council amidst a generally poor night of local council results for them. In short, the Liberal Democrats should have the local infrastructure here to put up a better fight than in Barnsley, although the chances are they'll struggle to hold second place against the Conservatives. Another 13% drop isn't really an option.

As for the date of this by-election the strong rumour is 5^th May, to coincide with the Council and Mayoral elections taking place that day. Although that will mean even more work for us that day there is logic to combining the three elections, and the AV referendum, because of cost. Politically, this may help who ever does poorly (the Lib Dems?) as news of this election will be smothered by the devolved assembly elections and the national referendum.

An Open Letter to Sir Peter Soulsby MP (Lab, Leicester South)

Dear Sir Peter,

First of all, may I offer my congratulations on your selection as the Labour candidate for the forthcoming mayoral elections in Leicester. I visited the city during the by-election in 2004 (when I was campaigning for the Liberal Democrats) and would have liked to have visited the Space Centre (if I had had a spare moment). However, I am writing to you with a plea.

As you have announced that you cannot be a mayoral candidate and a Member of Parliament, you will be standing down from Parliament (which as I am sure most people will agree is a valid point) however, I am writing to ask you to suggest to the Labour chief whip NOT to hold the by-election on May 5th 2011 (as has been suggested on Labour List). The reason for this is as follows:

• National Assembly Elections in Wales (60 members)
• Scottish Parliament Elections (129 members)
• Northern Ireland Assembly Elections (108 members)
• Local Elections in England (279 councils)
• Local Elections in Northern Ireland (26 councils)
• Alternative Vote Referendum (400+ council areas/constituencies/ regions across the UK)

There is already too much happening on May 5th for us poor psephologists to cope with, therefore would respectfully ask that if you are able to speak with the Labour chief whip about holding the by-election on either April 29th 2011 or May 12th 2011 in order to give us a chance to recover.

Yours sincerely, Harry Hayfield, Ceredigion, Wales