Saturday 25 December 2010

Merry Christmas!


Britain-Votes.co.uk wishes you all a Merry Christmas!

As you can imagine blogging will be light non-existent over the next week. However, work will be going on behind the scenes as we tidy up the site ahead of May's election bonanza. If you're lucky we'll have the introduction to the Scottish Parliament elections going up to join Northern Ireland. If you're looking for something to read during the news lull I'm sure you could do worse! Chris is close to finishing Scotland but he's been hit by flu.

In the meantime, enjoy the political break and we'll see you all in the New Year!

Friday 24 December 2010

Nominations close for OldE & Sad

Nominations closed yesterday for the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election and there were a couple of surprises. Despite media reports the British Nationalist Party leader Nick Griffin is not on the ballot paper. Instead they have selected local activist Derek Adams who polled 7.2% in the nearby Blackley & Broughton constituency at the General Election. Also, the rumoured National Front candidacy didn't materialise which could have something to do with Griffin staying away. In other news; the Church of the Militant Elvis Party's leader David Bishop is standing as a Bus-Pass Elvis Party candidate. Here is a full list of candidates for the contest:

Candidate

Debbie Abrahams (LAB)

Derek Adams (BNP)

Kashif Ali (CON)

Peter Allen (GRN)

David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis P.)

Howling Laud Hope (OMRL)

Loz Kaye (Pirate P.)

Stephen Morris (ED)

Paul Nuttal (UKIP)

Elwyn Watkins (LD)

Today was also the last day for postal vote applications. Considering the weather and the time of year postal votes could well play a huge part in this by-election. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are well aware of this and they have been encouraging their supporters to sign up for postal votes. In many ways the next three weeks will be a bit of an anti-climax. Barring a gaffe all the fault lines are set. Tuition fees are done for now and Debbie Abrahams is going to struggle to compete with Elwyn Watkins for name recognition. There may be a few voters annoyed with the Liberal Democrats for calling the election so soon after Christmas, but equally others will be annoyed that Labour caused the by-election in the first place. Despite all of that I'm sure there will be quite a few posts about this by-election in the following month! Here we're planning to look at the previous results in the constituency and the local government picture, as well as following any developments in the contest in the New Year.

Sawbridgeworth Remains Independent

In the final by-election of the year an Independent candidate was victorious in a seat vacated by an Independent. Last night's contest was for Sawbridgeworth, East Hertfordshire and for the second time in two months on this Council the Conservatives failed to pick up a seat from an Indpendent. In September Nigel & Deborah Clark, who are married, quit their seats in protest against the controlling Tory administration, which dominates East Hertfordshire DC holding 42 of the 50 seats. Deborah's seat was won by an Independent early in November and last night Nigel's produced a similar result.

The Conservatives took two of the three Sawbridgeworth seats in 2007 and they were hoping to add a third yesterday. As they 'won' the poll in 2007 with 42% of the vote this wasn't an unrealistic aim, however yesterday they were beaten quite convincingly by the Town's Mayor Eric Buckmaster. It has been suggested that Buckmaster had the Clark's support, and he would have be well known in the area as the Mayor. Comparing this by-election to previous years is a bit difficult as in 2007 there were three Conservative candidates competing with Nigel Clark and a Liberal Democrat for the three seats. Furthermore, turnout was unsurprisingly very low at just under 15%. The recent results in East Hertfordshire suggest there is a desire for Independent representation to challenge the Tories, but it will be interesting to see if this holds up in the full elections next May. Buckmaster will serve just four months before he has to face the voters again.

Sawbridgeworth (East Herts.)

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Eric Buckmaster (E)

441

45.1%

William Mortimer

343

35.1%

Peter Mitchell

99

10.1%

Michael Shaw

95

9.7%

Wednesday 22 December 2010

By-Election Preview (23rd December)

So here we are. Three days before Christmas and previewing the last by-election of 2010. One thing I doubt we'll see is a high turnout!

The vacancy is for the Sawbridgeworth ward on the East Hertfordshire District Council. This is the second by-election for this Council in two months and they were caused by the resignation of two Independents, who were husband and wife. Nigel & Deborah Clark felt they were unable to fulfil their manifesto commitment to 'get more answers' from the Conservative led administration. The Tories hold 42 if the 50 seats on the Council and the Clark's feel this is damaging local democracy. Their resignations were intended as a statement and they have pledged to spend the next few months 'enlightening residents about what's been going on'.

This by-election is for Nigel's old seat where in 2007 he snatched third place from a Conservative in this three member ward. The Tories hold the other two seats and the figures would suggest that this seat is there for the taking. However, an Independent won Deborah's seat in early November so the Conservatives won't have an easy ride. The Independent candidate Eric Buckmaster is the Sawbridgeworth Mayor so he is likely to have a personal vote himself. The weather and the proximity to Christmas should favour the Tories, who will have more manpower to get their vote out, but Buckmaster is in with a shout.

Sawbridgeworth (East Herts.)

Candidate

2007

William Mortimer (CON)

42.5%

Eric Buckmaster (IND)

36.1%

Michael Shaw (LD)

21.4%

Peter Mitchell (LAB)

-

Snow Surprise in Wiltshire’s Winter Wonderland

Amidst the chilly conditions in Wiltshire last night a by-election took place to fill the vacant Bromham, Rowde & Potterne ward on the County Council. Just over 1000 voters braved the elements, which represents a turnout slightly less than 30%. Considering the weather, and the proximity to Christmas, this was a fair effort!

As for the result, the Conservatives held the seat comfortably. There were a few reasons why a surprise may have been on the cards, not least the cause of the vacancy. The incumbent Tory Councillor Philip Brown's handed in his resignation after he had pleaded guilty to one count of fraud and three counts of theft, which in total amounted to almost £50,000. Brown has since been sentenced to 10 months in prison for the offences, which would have disqualified him as a Councillor anyway. In a further twist, the mother of the Conservative candidate was standing as an Independent having previously contested elections as a member of UKIP. Despite all this the result was quite orderly. The Conservatives' vote share rose by 10%, which was probably as a result of UKIP not standing in this election, and the Liberal Democrats managed a slightly bigger increase in the absence of a Green candidate. There isn't really much more to say about penultimate by-election of 2010!

Wiltshire County Council

CON

LD

IND

IG

LAB

61

-

24

-

8

-

3

-

2

-

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

Liz Bryant (E)

561

53.5%

Paul Mortimer

358

34.2%

Andrew Jones

74

7.1%

Pat Bryant

55

5.2%

Tomorrow East Hertfordshire District Council will host the final by-election of the year. We were here in November where an Independent held a seat with over 60% of the vote against the Conservatives. This contest is likely to be a little closer as the Tories hope to gain a seat vacated by an Independent. Full preview will be posted later on today.

Tuesday 21 December 2010

The Importance of Vince Cable

Oh dear. It seems Vince Cable has made a bit of an embarrassing mistake by telling two undercover Telegraph journalists (posing as constituents) about how unhappy he was in the government, and that there was an implicit threat of a ‘nuclear option’ of resigning and destabilising the government.

Yet as Professor Steve Fielding of Nottingham University says: “What he’s done is say things that everybody really knew he thought, he’s ended up giving a justification for the coalition from the Liberal Democrat perspective. It’s short-term embarrassment, but in the long- term, it’s education of the voters.”

Vince Cable is terribly important to the coalition. Until recently he was better known than his own leader and he can be seen as the number 2 Lib Dem in the cabinet, he is a totemic figure, well known and popular amongst the general public, but he is also extremely popular with the party grassroots. In a sense, his apparent unhappiness is a boon to the Coalition as it helps reinforce that Lib Dem cabinet ministers are not simply ‘Yellow Tories’. Cable has voiced concerns which reinforce this, and this is likely to make Lib Dem activists and supporters feel someone is ‘fighting their corner’ as it were. It is also ludicrous to suggest that the second most well known and probably most popular Liberal Democrat MP should be outside the cabinet. It is also notable that cabinets provide several functions. One is simply to put the best man or woman in the best job. Yet another is to represent the various factions that make up the government. Cable, therefore, represents the disgruntled Liberal Democrat faction, who will only become more disgruntled if he is removed.

It should be noted that the need to represent factions is not just limited to the Lib Dems or to Coalition governments. John Prescott was placed in the Blair governments in order to provide a traditional working class ‘Old Labour’ voice at the heart of government. Peter Mandelson was brought into the Brown government to appease Blairite critics of Brown, whereas William Hague provides a role in appeasing the Conservative Party grassroots, amongst whom he is more popular than Cameron.

A popular suggestion amongst right-wingers appears to be the replacement of Cable, with David Laws. Laws is important to the coalition also, but for entirely opposite reasons to Cable. David Laws represents the line where Lib Demmery and Conservatism meet. Laws, in many ways, embodies the coalition, and is the chief ideologue of the Liberal Democrat right. His importance, therefore, is in terms of providing a Lib Dem who is popular amongst Tories, and who helps to unite the parties. Cable’s importance is in stabilising the Lib Dem grassroots by making them feel represented. These are opposite roles and the replacement of Cable with Laws can only result in a further belief amongst the Lib Dem grassroots that the right-wing of the party is taking over, and a destabilisation of the party as a result. Conservative supporters and activists may wonder why they should care about this, but an unstable Liberal Democrats makes an unstable government, and makes Labour look better by comparison. It also risks bringing down the government and threatening a fresh general election, and there is no guarantee Cameron would win a majority on his second try (it is worth remembering that of the two times where there have been two elections in a year – 1910 and 1973 – the electorate has voted much the same way). The survival of the Coalition remains the best chance to implement Conservative policy, and the stability of the Liberal Democrats as the junior partner is vital to that goal.

Yet Cable’s comments are, as Professor Fielding suggests, somewhat enlightening. "I have a nuclear option; it's like fighting a war. They know I have nuclear weapons, but I don't have any conventional weapons. If they push me too far then I can walk out and bring the government down and they know that. So it is a question of how you use that intelligently without getting involved in a war that destroys all of us. That is quite a difficult position to be in and I am picking my fights. Some of which you may have seen." These words are not really the words of any typical narrative about coalition. They are not the words of a man whose third party is running the show, in fact they are the words of a man who feels he has few tools to influence policy (few ‘conventional weapons’ in Cable’s vocabulary). Yet they are also not the words of a ‘Tory lapdog’ willing to accede to any request from his Tory taskmasters. For Cable, at least, this is clearly a marriage of convenience. His ‘Conservative friends’ are colleagues, ones he does not necessarily agree with, and nothing more. He is fighting his corner as best he can, but the fact is that the Coalition is majority Conservative by far. Yet he is right that his ‘nuclear option’ could ‘destroy us all’.

Cable will remain for these reasons and more. He will continue to be vital to the Coalition, but if he had a nuclear option it has now been disarmed, for leaving the government will no longer be seen as principled but as a negotiating tactic. The greatest importance of Vince Cable is that he stabilises the coalition, but he has weakened his own ability to destabilise it. In a sense he may have stabilised the coalition further by doing so. If this is the case then he has weakened the Lib Dem position within the government, and from a Conservative POV that may be the true importance of today’s events.

Monday 20 December 2010

By-Election Preview (21st December)

For the second time in a month there is a by-election taking place on a Tuesday. Usually this would seem a bit odd but considering this Thursday is the 23rd December holding the vote a couple of days early makes a lot of sense. There is still a by-election taking place on Christmas Eve Eve, and I'll deal with that one on Wednesday.

Tomorrow the Bromham, Rowde & Potterne ward on the Wiltshire County Council be contested and like the last Tuesday contest the by-election is taking place as a result of the incumbent resigning under a cloud. The vacancy in Ceredigion three weeks ago was caused by a misconduct charge, but this one is in a slightly different league. The Conservative Councillor Philip Brown's handed in his resignation after he had pleaded guilty to one count of fraud and three counts of theft, which in total amounted to almost £50,000. Brown has since been sentenced to 10 months in prison for the offences, which would have disqualified him as a Councillor anyway.

Situations like these always leave the potential for a surprise result, but quite often the circumstances don't seem to have much effect on the by-election. For instance, last week the Conservatives easily held a ward following a resignation due to inappropriate behaviour to female staff. Like the Worcestershire contest three days ago UKIP appear to be best placed to take advantage of the Tories' woes but they are not contesting this by-election. The Liberal Democrats came third in 2009 but they are not having the best of times in Council by-elections at the moment. The Tories look likely to hold for lack of a real alternative. But there is a slight twist to this by-election which could shake things up. The Independent Pat Bryant is the mother of the Conservative candidate Liz Bryant. Furthermore, Bryant Snr. stood for UKIP at the General Election so she might take some of the anti-EU party's previous vote. There is certainly a lot going on in this by-election, but it remains to be seen whether any of it is enough to prevent a Conservative hold.

Bromham, Rowde & Potterne (Wilts.)

Candidate

2009

Liz Bryant (CON)

43.4%

N/C (UKIP)

18.6%

Paul Mortimer (LD)

18.4%

N/C (GRN)

14.7%

Andrew Jones (LAB)

4.9%

Pat Bryant (IND)

0.0%

By-Election Watch (20/12/10)

Here are this week's changes to the by-election page.

Council

Type

Ward

Party

Reason

Date

Conwy

Wales

Marl

Conservative

Health

20th Jan

Manchester

Metro.

Baguley

Labour

Death

20th Jan

Salford

Metro.

Walkden North

Labour

Death

TBA?

A couple of known vacancies have had a date set in the past week. 20th January is quite likely to be the busiest day for by-elections that month with four scheduled at the moment. Elsewhere, Salford Council are holding elections in May but there is speculation that a by-election may be called to fill the vacancy. This week we have a [becoming far less] rare by-election on Tuesday for the Wiltshire County Council (Unitary) and one on Christmas Eve eve for the East Hertfordshire District Council. Preview for tomorrow's will be up shortly.

Sunday 19 December 2010

You Win Some, You Lose Some

Labour were involved in both seats that changed hands on Thursday night, tasting victory in one and defeat in the other. They managed a gain a seat in Kent from the Conservatives which will be pleasing for the party. Labour have generally struggled in the South since the General Election despite their resurgence elsewhere in the country. However, they were embarrassed yet again in Tower Hamlets as they lost the seat previously held by the new Mayor of the London Borough. The fallout from the debacle is still fresh in the voters' minds as they elected a Respect Councillor who supported Lutfur Rahman's Mayoral bid. The other four vacancies were all successfully defended by the Conservatives.

I'll start with the shock win for Respect in Tower Hamlets, although the nature of politics in this area of the world means the unexpected is worth expecting. The vacancy for the Spitalfields & Banglatown ward arose following the election of Lutfur Rahman to the new post of Tower Hamlets Mayor in October. Rahman was elected as a Labour Councillor in May but left the party to run as an Independent in the Mayoral election after the NEC removed him as their candidate. I speculated on Wednesday that the Respect candidate Fozal Miah was best placed to harness the anger surrounding the perceived injustice of Labour's Mayoral selection. Miah clearly had a personal vote in the ward and endorsed Rahman so he a fairly good chance despite the decline of Respect as a political party. Miah managed to win the seat on a 10.1% swing but Labour didn't do as badly as it first appears. Labour managed to increase their share of the vote by 2.8% as other parties vote share suffered in this election. The Liberal Democrats crashed to 2.2% from 17.6% in May and the Greens lost over half their vote share as well. The situation is clearly a complicated one and it's possible that the 'Rahman' wing of Labour's vote went to Respect as the reds hovered up votes from the uncompetitive progressive parties. As infuriating as the Tower Hamlets situation must be for Labour it is an extremely localised one, and it's unlikely to damage the party's wider electoral chances.

London Borough of Tower Hamlets

LAB

CON

IND

RSP

LD

32

-1

8

-

8

-

2

+1

1

-

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Fozol Miah (E)

666

45.4%

+23.0%

Alim Abdul

553

37.7%

+2.8%

Matt Smith

135

9.2%

-2.8%

Maggie Crosbie

52

3.5%

-6.6%

Ferdy North

33

2.2%

-15.4%

Jewel Choudhury

28

1.9%

-1.1%

In brighter news for Labour their gain in Dover Town, Kent CC represents a mini milestone in their recovery from their General Election defeat earlier in the year. They have generally struggled to regain the ground they lost to the Conservatives in this region so this victory is a welcome boost. The vacancy arose following the death of Conservative Councillor Roger Frayne. The ward is one Labour have held in recent years and it is situated within the boundaries of the Dover Parliamentary seat they lost on a 10.4% swing in May. Before the General Election Labour held 19 seats in the South East but they were almost completely wiped out in the region as they managed to hold just 4. The drubbing the Tories inflicted on Labour included winning every single one of Kent's 17 seats, of which 7 were represented by Labour MPs during the last Parliament. Gordon Cowan's win on Thursday represented a 9.3% swing since the 2009 election and it sends a message that Labour are capable of wining here again. The victory was aided by other parties as the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed and UKIP produced a strong showing. Frayne also held seats on the Dover District Council and the Dover Town Council. The Tories comfortably held the Lydden & Temple Ewell ward on the District Council but they didn't contest the vacancy on the Town Council vacancy. The Dover Alliance, a local group who are against party politics on the Town Council, easily beat the Labour and UKIP candidates to take the Castle ward. They now hold 5 of the 18 seats on the Labour controlled Council, which will hold a full election next May.

Kent County Council

CON

LD

LAB

RA

VAC

71

-1

7

-

3

+1

1

-

2

-

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Gordon Cowan (E)

1491

43.7%

+14.3%

Pat Sherratt

1348

39.5%

-4.3%

Vic Matcham

404

11.8%

+11.8%

John Trickey

170

5%

-21.9%

The Conservatives also held another District Council seat in Kent on Thursday. The Sherwood ward on the Tunbridge Wells Borough Council was vacant following the death of the incumbent Councillor. The Tories actually enjoyed a small swing towards from the Liberal Democrats as they comfortably held the seat.

The final two principle authority by-elections were caused by the same resignation in Worcestershire. George Lord represented both the Alvechurch ward on the County Council and Marlbrook on the Bromsgrove District Council. However, Lord stood down following allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female staff and he as since been arrested in connection to the incident. Despite this the Tories held onto both the seats, although they suffered a fairly large swing towards Labour in Marlbrook. They held the County seat quite comfortably, which could well be due to the collapse in UKIP's vote from second place. The anti-EU party dropped to last place as their share of the vote fell 16.7%. It was a bit tougher holding the Bromsgrove seat as Labour enjoyed a 9.7% swing to leave them just 48 votes short of a gain. However, if Labour has held their vote share from 2007 they would have gained the seat. Although the Conservatives were down almost 30% on the last election Labour also lost 8% as a result of 5 new candidates contesting the election. The Tories will be quite relieved Lord's behaviour didn't cost them on either West Midlands Council.

Worcestershire County Council

CON

LD

LAB

ICHC

LIB

IND

RA

41

-

8

-

3

-

2

-

1

-

1

-

1

-

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

June Griffiths (E)

637

52.6%

+11.7%

Christopher Bloore

189

15.6%

+6.3%

Dee Morton

157

13%

+13%

Howard Allen

83

6.9%

-6.4%

Kenneth Wheatley

79

6.5%

+6.5%

Steven Morson

65

5.4%

-16.7%

Finally, Labour successfully defended a couple of Town Council seats. Millfield, Braunstone TC (Leicestershire) and Low Spennymoor & Tudhoe Grange, Spennymoor TC (Durham) both remain red following Thursday's by-elections.

Ps. Apologies for the belated post. A combination of Graduation, celebrating Graduation and then working all day yesterday left me a bit tired to write the post last night! Next week we have another Tuesday by-election in addition to one on Thursday so there will be regular by-election updates throughout the week.

Thursday 16 December 2010

Labour are the trend setters in OldE & Sad

Since Labour selected Debbie Abrahams to be their candidate for the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election there have been a fair few developments. Three parties have officially selected their own candidates and it looks like we have a date, albeit a controversial one!

They Conservatives have stuck with Kashif Ali, who was their candidate for this seat at the General Election. This selection wasn't exactly as surprise! The Greens have opted for Peter Allen, who received 1.8% of the vote for his party in the High Peak seat in May. But by far the biggest news is that the BNP leader Nick Griffin standing. Griffin ran a high profile campaign in the Barking constituency in the spring but he failed miserably in his attempt to oust Margaret Hodge (right). The BNP vote dropped from the previous election, which was a testament to Labour's campaign against the extremist party. Considering the reason for this by-election, and the recent history of Oldham, Griffin's presence will add yet another dimension to an already intriguing contest. As by-elections go, this isn't the most predictable!

The current list of confirmed candidates is as follows:

Candidate

Debbie Abrahams (LAB)

Kashif Ali (CON)

Peter Allen (GRN)

Gregg Beaman (LBT)

Nick Griffin (BNP)

Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope

Nick 'The Flying Brick' Delves (OMRL)

Stephen Morris (ED)

Paul Nuttal (UKIP)

Elwyn Watkins (LD)

There are also strong rumours that the National Front and the Pirate Party will field candidates, but they yet to be confirmed. I'm sure we'll have a few more on top of that as well!

We are also a great deal closer to know the date of this by-election since the Liberal Democrats have broken convention by moving the writ. This task is usually undertaken by the party who will be defending the vacancy and Labour aren't exactly happy about the Lib Dems' conduct. They have good grounds to be angry too as the writ also sets the date of the by-election; 13th January. This means the residents of OldE & Sad will elect their new Member of Parliament in just four weeks time. Although this is about the same amount of time that an official General Election campaign is by-elections are usually given slightly longer. In practice, the timetable is shorter still as campaigning over the Christmas period is likely to be very light, or badly received. Mark Pack, of LibDemVoice, made the case for longer by-election campaigns a year ago.

"…shorter campaigns mean less time for candidates to put their cases and less chance for the public to hear from candidates. It also makes it harder for new people to break in as plausible candidates."

Of the three parties with a realistic chance of victory Labour are by far the most disadvantaged by the very short timetable. Elwyn Watkins has national name recognition following the court case and the Tories have stuck with their candidate from May. Debbie Abrahams has essentially got less than three weeks to convince the electorate she is the best candidate. This won't be the easiest task as they didn't know who she was this time last week!

The Liberal Democrats will justify their actions by pointing out that the seat has been vacant since early November, and the election was void so Labour don't actually hold it. They are technically right, but the massive advantage they gain from this date is hardly a coincidence. Of course, Parliament could reject the writ but this would just result in the seat remaining vacant until the end of this session. They've have been quite cunning really, and they shouldn't expect any favours from Labour in the near future…!

Update 1: Since this article the writ has been moved and the date has been confirmed as 13th January 2011.

Update 2: The Official Monster Raving Loony Party have had to change their candidate as Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope is unavailable during January. Delves contested the Crewe & Nantwich by-election in 2008 receiving 0.8% of the vote.