By-Election Preview (26th July)

We have a rare Tuesday by-election this week and it is taking place in the Welsh Council of Torfaen. The vacancy is in the Snatchwood division following the death of Cllr. Tom Gould, who had been sitting as an Independent following the disbandment of the People's Voice movement in Torfaen. Gould won his seat in 2008 in a straight fight with Labour but this by-election will be contested by no less than six candidates.

Labour should be favourites to take this having held the division before 2008 and their defeated candidate from that election Barry Taylor is standing again. He is up against a couple of candidates who stood in the last Torfaen by-election, which took place shortly before the General Election. Both Mike and Nigel Harris (no relation to my knowledge [to each other or to me!]) stood in Pontypool and Mike Harris came close to denying Labour the gain. Steve Joy is linked to Ian Williams, who was a key player in the People's Voice and is still trying to keep the dream alive. Williams' himself stood in Pontypool polling a disappointing 80 votes but as this division was won by the People's Voice in 2008 Joy might have more luck in this by-election.

Since March there have been a few changes to the composition of Torfaen Council as the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru have both had Councillors leave their respective groups to sit as Independents. Labour are still running the Council as a minority administration though with full Council elections due next May.

Torfaen County Borough Council
LAB	IG	Ind	Con	PC		LD	Vac
20	8	7	5	2		1	1
Snatchwood
By-Election Candidate					2008
N/C (PV)					56.9%
Barry Taylor (Lab)					43.1%
Mike Harris (Ind)					-
Nigel Harris (Ind)					-
Steve Joy (Ind)					-
Richard Overton (Con)					-
Caroline Powell (PC)					-

 

Tom Harris

Nationalists gain in Scotland and Wales

The Scottish and the Welsh Nationalist parties both celebrated gains in local by-elections this week. In Scotland the SNP took another seat off the Liberal Democrats in Aberdeen, which has had a huge impact locally, and Plaid Cymru scored a narrow victory in Carmarthenshire.

We'll start in Scotland where the Aberdeen by-election on Thursday saw the SNP storm to yet another victory. They took the seat after eight rounds of counting, although they also managed to top the first preference vote after an 18.5% swing from the Lib Dems on first preferences. The Tory vote also fell back and perhaps the biggest surprise was a large rise in the Labour share of the first preferences.

The Lib Dems polled very poorly for a ward where two of the three councillors were Lib Dem in 2007 - losing more than half of their votes and falling from first to fourth in terms of first preferences. Their Scottish collapse seems to be continuing unabated to the benefit of the SNP, but has probably been particularly exacerbated in this case by the nature of the previous councillor's resignation in disgraced circumstances. The SNP meanwhile gain their first ever seat in this ward, bringing them closer to the prospect of majority control in Aberdeen after next year's local elections.

The Labour rise was unexpected and must also give them hope of a seat here next year. The very large size of the Lib Dem vote was probably a likely cause - some former Lib Dems would perhaps be more inclined to switch to Labour, even though most of the swing we have seen across the country has been to the SNP, and with so many votes to play for making advances must have been relatively easy. The Conservatives will also be disappointed with their vote falling when they also hold a seat in this ward. This might be down to the effect of Tory plans to increase taxes in the oil sector, which is threatening jobs in areas like this.

Of the other candidates, the Greens came fifth on first preferences but were eliminated in 6th place after a couple of early transfers favoured the independent Bennett. One also has to wonder precisely what was on the mind of the two voters who gave their first preference to the National Front and then their second vote to the Greens!

The SNP now have a two seat lead over the Lib Dems in Aberdeen and shortly after the result was announced the Lib Dem leader of the council announced he would resign to allow the SNP's Callum McCaig to become council leader. Aged 26, McCaig becomes the youngest council leader anywhere in the UK. Although the formation of the new administration has not yet been made clear, McCaig has indicated he would prefer to maintain a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. KK

		Stage
By-Election Candidate	1stP%	1	2			3			4			5			6			7
Gordon Townson	33.2%	1112	3	12%	1115	5	15%	1120	16	15%	1136	25	20%	1161	102	17%	1263	178	22%	1441
Angela Taylor	23.3%	783	0	0%	783	1	3%	784	26	25%	810	19	16%	829	127	21%	956	112	14%	1068
Bill Berry	19.4%	649	3	12%	652	2	6%	654	2	2%	656	20	16%	676	125	21%	801	-801
Gregor McAbery	16.5%	554	4	16%	558	4	12%	562	22	21%	584	15	12%	599	-599
Richie Brian	3.0%	101	2	8%	103	1	3%	104	-104
Graham Bennett	2.9%	98	1	4%	99	10	29%	109	13	13%	122	-122
Hamish MacKay	1.0%	32	2	8%	34	-34
Dave MacDonald	0.7%	25	-25
Non-Transferable			10	40%	10	11	32%	21	25	24%	46	43	35%	89	245	41%	334	511	64%	845

Aberdeen City Council
SNP		LD		Lab		Con			Abd Con			Ind
15	1	13	-1	10	-	2		-	2		-	1		-
Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee
By-Election Candidate							Votes			Vote %			+/-
Gordon Townson (E)							1112			33.2%			+15.8%
Angela Taylor							783			23.3%			+10.5%
Bill Berry							649			19.4%			-8.1%
Gregor McAbery							554			16.5%			-21.1%
Richie Brian							101			3.0%			+3.0%
Graham Bennett							98			2.9%			-1.8%
Hamish MacKay							32			1.0%			+1.0%
Dave MacDonald							25			0.7%			+0.7%

In Llanegwad, Carmarthenshire the poaching of an unaffiliated candidate who had already stood in the division worked for Plaid Cymru as they held off a challenge from an Independent to gain the seat. The by-election was taking place following disqualification of Independent Councillor Dilwyn Williams. He had been granted a leave of absence after being taken ill but after 18 months the Council moved to release the seat.

In 2008 John Charles stood as a candidate with no description and came second behind Williams but he went one better on Thursday. As the Plaid candidate Charles won the seat by 44 votes from the new Independent and he becomes the 31^st member of the Nationalists group on the Council. However, Carmarthenshire is controlled by an Independent led coalition and so Plaid will have to wait until next years full Council elections for their opportunity to win a majority. TH

Carmarthenshire County Council
PC		Ind		Lab			PF		LD			Un
31	+1	28	-1	11	-		2	-	1		-	1	-
Llanegwad
By-Election Candidate						Votes				Vote %
John Charles (E)						494				52.1%
Clive Pugh						455				47.9%

By-Election Preview (23rd July – Scottish & Welsh Edition)

In addition to the seven elections taking place in England today there are also contests in Scotland and Wales. They are in Aberdeen, where an Independent who was elected as a Liberal Democrat has resigned, and Carmarthenshire, where an Independent Councillor had his leave of absence withdrawn following a long illness.

We'll start in Scotland where, for the second time in as many months, this week's by-election is coming to us from Aberdeen City Council. This time there's a seat up for grabs in the Airyhall, Broomhill and Garthdee ward after Lib Dem Councillor Scott Cassie was jailed for embezzlement and subsequently resigned. The ward covers the southwestern suburbs of the city which are largely affluent.

The Liberal Democrats are clinging onto the council leadership after the SNP became the city's largest party after last month's by-election gain in the Dyce, Bucksburn & Danestone ward. Like most of the recent by-elections in Scotland, the SNP won with a massive swing in their favour, mostly to the expense of the Lib Dems.

In this case, the SNP should expect to do much the same. Although they start quite far behind the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in this ward, much of that Lib Dem vote could fall to them, especially given the negative circumstances around the previous Lib Dem councillor's departure. Based on recent trends, the Conservatives are also likely to fall back on 2007. They will also be impeded by George Osborne's increased taxes on the oil industry in a ward where the industry will be, either directly or indirectly, a major source of employment.

Labour's candidate may see their vote increase, but this is relatively poor ward for them. The Greens are making their first outing in this ward, as are the National Front who recently stood in all the Aberdeen constituencies and the North East region in the Holyrood election, attracting only a tiny number of votes. After not standing in the last by-election, they seem to have now decided to re-enter the Aberdeen election fray.

There are also two independent candidates. The first, Graham Bennett, is a local community councillor and also contested this ward back in 2007 winning a small but significant number of first preferences that transferred mostly in favour of the Liberal Democrats. The other, Hamish MacKay, also contested the 2007 elections, in the Bridge of Don ward to the other side of the city. KK

Aberdeen City Council
SNP		LD		Lab		Con			Abd Con		Ind		Vac
14	-	13	-	10	-	2		-	2	-	1	-	1	-
Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee
By-Election Candidate							2007
Gregor McAbery (LD)							37.6%
Bill Berry (Con)							27.4%
Gordon Townson (SNP)							17.3%
Angela Taylor (Lab)							12.8%
Graham Bennett (Ind)							4.8%
Richie Brian (Grn)							-
Dave MacDonald (NF)							-
Hamish MacKay (Ind)							-

In Carmathenshire the Llanegwad division is vacant following the disqualification of Independent Councillor Dilwyn Williams. He had been granted a leave of absence after being taken ill but after 18 months the Council has moved to release the seat for a by-election. The Plaid Cymru candidate John Charles came second in 2008 when he stood with No Description, which should help the Nationalists chances of winning the seat. Although Plaid's and Charles' vote combined would not have been enough to deny Williams the former Councillor's personal vote may not necessarily switch to the new Independent candidate.

Plaid Cymru currently hold the most seats in Carmarthenshire but they are shut out of running the Council by an Independent led coalition with Labour and the Liberal Democrats. A win for Plaid would set them up nicely for next year's full Council elections. TH

Carmarthenshire County Council
PC	Ind	Lab	PF	LD	Un	Vac
30	28	11	2	1	1	1
Llanegwad
By-Election Candidate				2008
N/C (Ind)				52.6%
N/C (N-D)				28.1%
John Charles (PC)				19.4%
Clive Pugh (Ind)				-