Goughie 4 Barnsley Central? No, ta!

In an odd move the Conservatives tried to get former England Cricketer Darren Gough to be their candidate for the Barnsley Central by-election. Apparently, Gough was so shocked receive a call from the Prime Minster asking him to stand he put the phone down thinking it was a prank! As he is Barnsley born and bred, and a Conservative supporter, the plan had some legs. However, Gough declined the offer as he felt he would be unable to combine running for Parliament with his other professional commitments. Since his retirement from First Class Cricket in 2008 Gough has landed a drive time slot on TalkSport, and as there is very little chance of the Tories gaining this seat from Labour his decision is understandable.

Despite getting turned down by their preferred choice the Conservatives have now announced who will be their candidate for this by-election; James Hockney. He contested the neighbouring Barnsley East constituency last May, finishing third behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Given the latter's poor polling at the moment Hockney will be hoping he secure second place for his party next month. Hopefully he won't be too upset at being second choice to 'Goughie'!

By-Election Candidate	2010
Dan Jarvis (LAB)	47.3%
- (LD)	17.28%
James Hockney (CON)	17.26%
Enis Dalton (BNP)	8.9%
Jane Collins (UKIP)	4.7%
- (IND)	2%
- (IND)	1.6%
- (SLP)	1%

By-Election Preview (9th December)

There are only two principle authority by-elections taking place tomorrow; one for a Unitary Authority and one for a District Council. The Liberal Democrats are defending a seat in Warrington (Cheshire) and the Conservatives hoping to hold a seat Fareham (Hampshire).

I'll start in Warrington where the Bewsey & Whitecross ward is up for grabs. The vacancy has been caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Jo Crotty, who feels she no longer has the time to attend meetings following a promotion. The Lib Dems currently hold two of the three seats in this multi-member ward but that looks set to change. In 2007 the Lib Dems easily gained a seat here with almost 60% of the vote, however in May Labour scored a comprehensive victory of their own to hang on to their one remaining representative in this ward. The 2010 result equated to a 21% swing from 2007 and, as regular readers will know, Labour have been consistently increasing their vote share in wards contested in the spring. Ann Raymond was the defeated Lib Dem candidate earlier in the year and she is unlikely to do a much better tomorrow. If Labour gain this then the Lib Dem/Conservative coalition on the Council will have a majority of just one for the next five months. As things stand Labour look set to gain full control of Warrington in May.

Bewsey & Whitecross (Warrington)
Candidate	2007	2008	2010
Ann Raymond (LD)	57.6%	44.1%	31.7%
Jeff Richards (LAB)	36.7%	38.9%	53%
Lance Reah (CON)	5.7%	9%	15.2%
N/C (BNP)	-	8%	-
Lyndsay McAteer (GRN)	-	-	-
John Mulhall (IND)	-	-	-

The sole District by-election of the week in Fareham looks like an easy hold for the Conservatives, although perhaps I should be a little careful after the Poole result! The vacancy in the Fareham West ward has arisen following the resignation of Cllr. Diana Harrison due to ill health. The Tories secured over 60% of the vote here in the 2008 and 2010 elections, with the Liberal Democrats a long way back in second. The Conservatives' huge majority on the Council should remain unchanged.

Finally, there is a by-election for the Truro City Council taking place tomorrow. Don't be fooled; despite City status the Council is only Parish level. The Moresk ward is vacant following a resignation and Labour are hoping to hold the seat. Having spent my college years in Truro I have to say the 'city' (if it were a town the large wouldn't be used to describe it!) isn't natural Labour territory. Their challengers are the Liberal Democrats, who will take control of the Council if they win, and the Cornish Nationalist Party Mebyon Kernow (Sons of Cornwall). Not exactly one for the national picture but it certainly looks like competitive race!

As ever, tune in on Thursday night (hopefully) for the results!

People Power!

This week's set of by-elections looked like a predictable bunch but they produced one of the shocks of the year. The Conservatives seemed quite safe in the Poole Town ward, Poole (Dorset) but they lost the seat to a local party – Poole People. The party was only formed a couple of months ago and had no representation on the Council before this by-election. In the other two results from Thursday were as expected; Labour held their seat in St Helens (Merseyside) and the Conservatives held a seat in Rugby BC (Warwickshire). Plaid Cymru also held a seat on Tuesday, which is covered here.

So we'll start with the sensational gain on the snowy south coast. The by-election for the Poole Town ward was called following the death of Conservative Councillor, and Leader of the Council, Brian Leverett. In 2007 the Tories managed a clean sweep of the three seats in this ward and so they were expected to hold this yesterday. However, the emergence of a new political party in the Town has shaken up politics in Poole. Poole People was only launched in October and their success is linked to anger over redevelopments in the town's quay area. They appear to have only one prospective politician at the moment; Mark Howell. He has now become their first elected representative after securing a third of the vote in this low turnout election to defeat the Conservatives by 24 votes. The Tories not only lost the seat but their vote share dropped by almost 16% on the 2007 election. They weren't alone though as UKIP's vote share collapsed to less than 5% from 14% three and half years ago. It would appear that although Poole People claim to be neither 'left nor right' they attract voters from the right leaning established parties. The Conservatives now have a majority of two to limp through to next May's full Council elections, which look set to be very competitive.

Poole Borough Council
CON		LD		IND			PP
22	-1	17	-	2		-	1		+1
Candidate					Votes			Vote %
Mark Howell (PP-E)					462			33%
Tony Reeves					438			31.2%
Peter England					214			15.3%
Jason Sanderson					201			14.3%
Avril King					55			3.9%
William Kimmet					32			2.3%

The other top-tier Council election on Thursday took place for the St Helens MBC. The by-election in the Haydock ward was been called following the death of Cllr. Jim Caunce, who was one of the longest serving Councillors in country. Despite this the seat isn't that safe, with the Liberal Democrats holding one of the seats in this ward; the one to be contested next May in fact. Labour did a lot better earlier in the year to defeat the sitting Lib Dem Councillor Eric Sheldon by a comfortable margin. Sheldon was attempting to win his seat back this week but Anthony Burns managed to increase Labour's majority from May. The result represented a 10.4% swing from this year's election and, perhaps more importantly, a 30.7% swing from 2007. The Liberal Democrats continue to struggle in urban seats as Labour look set to increase their majority in St Helens next year.

St Helens Council
LAB		LD				CON
28	-	15		-		5		-
Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-
Anthony Burns (E)			1234		62.7%		+11.2%
Eric Sheldon			540		27.4%		-9.6%
John Cunliffe			112		5.7%		-5.8%
James Winstanley			82		4.2%		+4.2%

Finally, the Conservatives held the sole District Council vacancy to be filled this week. The by-election for the Dunchurch & Kightlow ward was called following the resignation of the sitting Conservative Councillor for personal reasons. The Liberal Democrats required a 3% swing from May's result to gain the seat and they already held one of the three seats in this multi-member ward. As it was, the Tories held on with a slight swing towards them from this year's election. They will have an 8 seat majority until the next round of elections in five months.

By-Election Preview (2nd December)

In addition yesterday's by-election in Ceredigion there are three more taking place this week. There are two top-tier by-elections tomorrow and one District, with the Conservatives defending two and Labour one. Barring the 16^th December Thursdays this month are going to be quite quiet…

I'll start in St Helens (Merseyside) with the second by-election to be held for this Metropolitan Council since the General Election. In October, Labour held the Billinge & Seneley Green ward comfortably and they are the defending party again tomorrow. The by-election in the Haydock ward has been called following the death of Cllr. Jim Caunce. He was 92 and had held the seat for over 50 years, making him one of the longest serving Councillors in country. Caunce won re-election in 2008 with a majority of 303 showing this seat isn't one of the safest in the country. In fact, Caunce was the only Labour Councillor for Haydock for four years before Labour gained one of the other two seats from the Liberal Democrats in May. The Lib Dems managed to secure an 800 vote majority in 2007 and the General Election turnout contributed to Labour's victory in May. Eric Sheldon was the defeated Liberal Democrat earlier in the year and he had held his seat since 2004. He's contesting this by-election for his party and will be hoping to buck the national trend to regain his seat. It'll be a tough ask as Labour have been enjoying swings towards them from May's results, so if the Lib Dems hold their own it would be an impressive result for Sheldon. Labour will have a majority of 8 on the 48 seat Council if they win tomorrow.

Haydock (St Helens)
Candidate	2007	2008	2010
Anthony Burns (LAB)	33.5%	45.5%	51.5%
Eric Sheldon (LD)	59.6%	35.6%	37%
John Cunliffe (CON)	6.9%	9.8%	11.5%
James Winstanley (BNP)	-	9.1%	-

The other top tier by-election tomorrow is for the Poole Unitary Authority (Dorset). This is another Council which have filled a vacancy since May, with the Liberal Democrats comfortably holding the Newtown ward in September. This by-election is taking place for the Poole Town ward following the death of Conservative Councillor, and Leader of the Council, Brian Leverett. In 2007 Leverett was one of three Conservatives easily elected, with the Liberal Democrats a long way back in second. If the Tories hold the seat, as expected, they will have as a majority of 4 on the 42 seat Council.

Poole Town (Poole)
Candidate	2007
Tony Reeves (CON)	47.1%
Peter England (LD)	18.3%
Avril King (UKIP)	14.2%
Jason Sanderson (LAB)	13.1%
N/C (IND)	7.3%
William Kimmet (BNP)	-
Mark Howell (PP)	-

The only District Council vacancy to be filled this week is on the Rugby Borough Council (Warwickshire). The Dunchurch & Kightlow ward is up for grabs following the resignation of the sitting Conservative Councillor for personal reasons. Although the Conservatives hold two of the three seats in this ward and the Liberal Democrats have the last. In 2008 they secured the second seat in a double vacancy, but the Tories won in May with a swing towards them. Despite their poor performances in urban wards the Lib Dems haven't been doing too badly in rural contests against the Conservatives. Therefore, this seat is the most likely of the three to change hands - although I am expecting another week of holds. The Tories will have a majority of 8 on the 48 seat Council if they hang on tomorrow.

Live tweeting as usual tomorrow night.

A disastrous night for the LibDems as Labour march on

Last night was one to forget for the Liberal Democrats as they performed poorly in a variety of seats. Although they had been doing badly in urban seats were they weren't competitive, this week they failed in a ward they had targeted and lost a rural seat to the Conservatives. Labour were the big winners, gaining two seats off the Conservatives and holding two wards where the Greens have been strong in recent years.

I'll start in Swindon, where Labour gained the Moredon ward from the Conservatives. The Tory Councillor Steph Excell resigned in protest against the proposed cuts to public spending, although how this squares with forcing her Council to pay for a by-election for a 6 month term...! Regardless, Labour took the seat on a 4% swing from May's result and Jenny Millen will hope to make this stick in next year's election. The swing doesn't tell the whole story though as the Tories' vote actually rose 2.6% from the spring. Labour picked up most of their extra votes from the Liberal Democrats, who collapsed from 18% to 5%. I was informed last night that this was the first seat the Conservative have lost in Swindon since 2002. This bodes well for Labour in there quest to reduce the Tories' comfortable majority on the Council.

Labour's other gain was in Coleridge, Cambridge. Although they were expected to win both seats they gained, this one was the easier of the two. They already held the other two seats in this ward and George Owers comfortably added the third last night. This is another example of the Liberal Democrats falling away spectacularly as their vote dropped from 25.5% in May to just 11%. Both Labour and the Conservatives profited, but the reds secured marginally more of the Lib Dems' vote to win the seat.

The by-election in Hulme, Manchester was perhaps the most disappointing of the Liberal Democrats' urban results last night. In May they had managed to force their way above the Greens into second place, apparently without trying. Then this by-election was triggered as the sitting Labour Councillor has caused a three car crash whilst under the influence of alcohol. So with a promising result earlier in the year, and the circumstances surrounding the vacancy, the Lib Dems campaigned in the ward this time. Their reward was to see their vote share drop back to 2008 levels as Labour comfortably held the seat. The Greens re-emerged as Labour's main challengers in Hulme, but they didn't come close to gaining the seat. Amina Lone was elected with over 60% of the vote and Labour look set to easily keep control of Manchester Council next May.

In the Ladywell by-election, Lewisham the Greens were clearly Labour's main worry. They had held all three seats in the ward until May when they struggled to deal with Labour's General Election turnout and lost them all. The Greens clawed back some of their vote share but it wasn't enough to regain a seat. A 1.6% swing from Labour left them 190 votes short as Carl Handley held the seat for his party. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives lost votes from May as Labour remain firmly in control of this London Borough.

The most worrying result for the Liberal Democrats came in the Lyth Valley by-election, South Lakeland DC (Cumbria). All summer they have been strong in rural battles with the Conservatives but for the second time in a fortnight their national coalition partners got the better of them. They lost Newton, Swansea two weeks ago on a massive swing as Labour and Plaid Cymru fielded candidates when they previously hadn't. This time it was just Labour who disrupted this ordinarily Tory/Lib Dem battle and their inclusion appears to have made the difference. The Conservatives managed a 6.8% swing to win the seat by just 23 votes as Labour received 32 votes. It will be interesting to see whether Labour run more candidates in wards like this, and if they have this much impact.

I'll finish with a couple of mundane results. Eileen Armstrong held Ponteland East, Northumberland for the Conservatives and replaces her late husband on the Council. Also, in Wales there was an open seat in Carmarthenshire following the death of Independent Councillor Haydn Jones. Plaid Cymru easily beat the Conservatives in a two way battle to gain the seat.

Swindon Borough Council												Manchester City Council
CON		LAB			LD			IND				LAB		LD			CON			IND
40	-1	14	+1		4		-	1		-		62	-	32	-		1	-		1		-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %			+/-			Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Jenny Millin (E)				887		47.0%			12.1%			Amina Lone (E)				1031			60.6%		14.8%
Toby Elliott				775		41.0%			1.7%			Deyika Nzeribe				451			26.5%		4.6%
William Oram				129		6.8%			6.8%			Grace Baynham				151			8.9%		-14.1%
Chris Ward				98		5.2%			-13.4%			Will Stobart				67			3.9%		-5.2%

 

Lewisham Borough Council												Camarthenshire County Council
LD		LAB			CON			GRN				IG		PC		LAB			PF				LD				IND
12	-	39	-		2		-	1		-		29	-1	30	+1	11	-		2	-			1	-			1	-
Candidate				Votes		Vote %			+/-			Candidate						Votes				Vote %				+/-
Carl Handley (E)				1231		41.4%			3.3%			Eileen Armstrong (E)						843				62.6%				2.1%
Ute Michel				1041		35.0%			6.4%			Andrew Duffield						403				29.9%				1.6%
Ingrid Chetram				314		10.6%			-5.3%			Andy Avery						100				7.4%				2.9%
Ben Appleby				153		5.1%			-4.5%
Helen Mercer				233		7.8%			0.0%

 

Camarthenshire County Council
IG		PC		LAB		PF			LD			IND
29	-1	30	+1	11	-	2		-	1	-		1	-
Candidate							Votes				Vote %
Hazel Evans (E)							638				81.9%
Henrietta Hensher							141				18.1%