By-Election Preview (11th August)

There are three by-elections taking place this week, all of which are in the south of England. Labour are defending, on paper at least, a three way marginal in Islington whilst the Conservatives are looking to hold a safe ward in Windsor & Maidenhead. The third contest is further west in North Devon where a fledgling Independent Group are looking to hang onto a seat they gained in May.

We'll start in London where, in the midst of the recent civil unrest, residents of the St Peter's ward will head to the polls today. The ward borders Hackney and so the rioting is sure to be at the forefront of voter's minds today. The vacancy has arisen following the resignation of Labour Councillor Shelly Coupland, who was charged with benefit fraud and stood down to clear her name. Coupland was in receipt of benefits as carer for her mother but she apparently did not declare her election, and subsequent allowance, to the Department of Work & Pensions.

Even before the events of the last few days the by-election was hard fought. Ken Livingston was campaigning against cuts to the Police here two weeks ago; an issue that will be in sharp focus at the ballot box today. Interestingly, Boris Johnson lives in this ward and Livingston will surely enjoy a victory in his rival's back yard, regardless of the fact Labour should beat the Tories here anyway. In fact, the Conservatives were third in St Peters last year and currently do not have a Councillor elected in Islington. The Liberal Democrats are Labour's main competition in this ward where the held all three seats as recently as 2006. Their candidate for this by-election stood in 2010 and came sixth, some 500 votes from the third placed Labour candidate.

Whatever the outcome of this by-election, Labour will continue to enjoy a large majority in Islington with the next full Council elections due in 2014.

St Peter's (Islington)
By-Election Candidate	2010
Alice Perry (Lab)	35.0%
David Sant (LD)	29.4%
Richard Bunting (Con)	26.3%
Caroline Allen (Grn)	9.3%
Martin Rutherford (Ind)	-

The by-election for the Fremington ward in North Devon is certainly and interesting one, albeit one in which the result should not be extrapolated to any national significance. The Conservatives easily beat the Liberal Democrats to the two seats here in 2007 but both Tories Councillors were ousted in spectacular fashion this May by a local Independent Group. The 'New Wave Independent Group' (NWIG) was only formed in February in response to 'feuds' on Fremington Parish Council and the group won four seats in the District elections.

Following this initial success the group faces a test in this by-election. The vacancy was caused by the resignation of Cllr. Joanne Bell who felt she could not continue in the role because of a long term illness. Not an unusual reason for a resignation but one usually seen during the latter stages of a term as opposed to just two months into one. I imagine the question of whether Bell should have stood in the first place has been raised during the campaign by her opponents.

I believe that Chris Turner is the de facto NWIG candidate in this by-election and his strongest challenge is sure to come from the Conservatives, who have selected one of the former Councillors defeated in May. The other Independent is also a Parish Councillor and came fifth here in May. Despite the fact they are the largest group on the Council the Conservatives do not control North Devon. The Liberal Democrats lead a coalition with the three Independent Groups and the Tories would like to cut their five seat majority with a win in this by-election. Full Council elections are due to take place in 2015.

North Devon Council
Con	LD	NWIG	IG	NDFG		Ind	Vac
18	14	3	3	3		1	1
Fremington
By-Election Candidate					2011
Chris Turner (NWIG)					61.2%
John Gill (Con)					18.5%
Tony Wood (Ind)					11.4%
N/C (LD)					8.9%
Neil Basil (Grn)					-

The final by-election taking place today is for the Eton & Castle ward in Windsor & Maidenhead. The vacancy has arisen due to the resignation of Conservative Councillor Liam Maxwell, who has been appointed as a Government advisor. Maxwell easily won his seat in May securing almost two thirds of the vote in the process. The Tories gained fourteen seats from the Liberal Democrats in Windsor & Maidenhead in this year's all out elections and they now hold 50 of the 57 seats on the Council. Needless to say a Conservative hold is likely.

Eton & Castle (Windsor & Maidenhead)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Adam Demeter (Con)	65.2%
George Fussey (LD)	27.8%
George Davidson (Lab)	7.0%
John-Paul Rye (UKIP)	-

 

Tom Harris

Tories hold two Council seats but Labour enjoy big swings in both

In addition to the Inverclyde by-election there were two local Council seats up for grabs on Thursday night. They were both successfully defended by the Conservatives but Labour continued their good run of by-election results by securing swings of over 10%. This was an especially impressive achievement in Wandsworth as Labour's performance in the capital last May was strong compared to the rest of the country.

I'll start in London where the Thamesfield ward in Wandsworth was vacant following the resignation of the Conservative Council Leader Edward Lister after his appointment as Boris Johnson's Chief of Staff in April. A hold was expected in this safe Tory ward and Mike Ryder didn't disappoint. He comfortably won with a majority of 475 but there was a significant swing towards the Labour candidate Christian Klapp. His hard work in the ward appears to have paid off as he increased his party's vote by 13.6% compared to last year's result. The swing was mostly from the Conservatives as, unusually, the Liberal Democrat vote held up well. The large Tory majority in Wandsworth was not under threat in this by-election and the next full Council elections are due to be held in 2014.

Thamesfield (Wandsworth)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-*
Mike Ryder (E)	1497	45.8%	-10.1%
Christian Klapp	1022	31.3%	+13.6%
Lisa Smart	545	16.7%	-0.1%
Marian Hoffman	202	6.2%	-3.4%

* compared to 2010 result

It was a similar story in the other by-election to take place this week. The vacancy in Cheshunt Central, Broxbourne BC (Hertfordshire) was caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Jason Brimson following his arrest on fraud charges. The circumstances of the by-election were not enough to prevent a Tory hold as Tony Siracusa still secured over half the vote for his party. Labour did manage a 14.4% swing but this was not enough to trouble the Conservatives in this safe ward. The Liberal Democrats were fielding a candidate in this ward for the first time in seven years and their reward was a paltry 24 votes, and last place behind UKIP and an Independent (who was a former Tory Councillor). The Conservatives enjoy a large majority in Broxbourne, where full Council elections are to take place next year on new boundaries.

Chesthunt Central (Broxbourne)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-*
Tony Siracusa (E)	742	53.1%	-14.8%
Richard Greenhill	481	34.4%	+14.0%
David Platt	88	6.3%	+6.3%
Joanne Welch	62	4.4%	+4.4%
Peter Huse	24	1.7%	+1.7%

* compared to 2011 result

Tom Harris

By-Election Preview (30th June)

In addition to the Inverclyde by-election there are only two local Council by-elections taking place today. They are in Broxbourne (Hertfordshire) and Wandsworth (London) and the Conservatives are the defending party in both of them. Unfortunately both vacant seats are in safe wards on safe Councils so we'll be relying on the Westminster by-election to provide the entertainment this week.

I'll start in Broxbourne where the reason for the vacancy is interesting. The sitting Conservative Councillor Jason Brimson was arrested for fraud and subsequently resigned from his seat in the Cheshunt Central ward. The matter relates to Brimson's company which provides insurance for businesses. He easily won his seat in 2010 with just under 65% of the vote and as the Conservatives held this ward with similar vote shares in 2008 and 2011 it's safe to say they are unlikely to lose this, despite Brimson's actions.

A few extra candidates are standing in this by-election compared to previous elections in Cheshunt Central which could have an affect on the result. The Independent candidate Joanne Welch is a former Tory Councillor who defected last winter and subsequently lost her Cheshunt North seat this May when she sought re-election. She may draw votes from the Conservatives in this contest but as she came a very poor third in her own ward last month it's hard to see her preventing a Tory hold today. In any case, the Conservatives have a large majority on the Council so they can cope with an upset.

Chesthunt Central (Broxbourne)
By-Election Candidate	2011	2010	2008
Tony Siracusa (Con)	67.9%	64.8%	66.8%
Richard Greenhill (Lab)	20.4%	23.4%	16.8%
N/C (ED)	11.6%	-	-
N/C (BNP)	-	11.8%	16.4%
Peter Huse (LD)	-	-	-
David Platt (UKIP)	-	-	-
Joanne Welch (Ind)	-	-	-

The other by-election today is in a slightly less safe Conservative ward and is also taking place following a resignation. Following the untimely death of the London Mayor's Chief of Staff, the highly valued Simon Milton, Wandsworth's Council leader Edward Lister was named as his replacement. Whilst Lister goes on to bigger and better things (he has just received a knighthood!) his constituents in the Thamesfield ward have a by-election to look forward to.

The contest has managed to make a bizarre splash in the blogosphere following LabourList's 'exposé' on a Liberal Democrat leaflet. Their complaint was that Lisa Smart didn't draw that much attention the fact she was a Lib Dem and speculated as to why that might be. The article drew a peculiar rant from the Labour campaign manager in the by-election complaining that LabourList hadn't made enough effort to promote his candidate's campaign.

Back to the leaflet itself, the attack on the 'secret Lib Dem' would be a tad more justified if either the Liberal Democrats had any chance of winning or the Labour candidate in this by-election wasn't doing exactly the same thing! Christian Klapp appears to be working this ward hard and has delivered a number of leaflets during this campaign. They include not one but two leaflets with which you would be hard pressed to realise Klapp was a Labour candidate.

With Labour and the Lib Dems battling it out to see who can come up with the best way to keep their candidate's party label hidden the Conservatives must be quietly pleased. This should be a straightforward hold for the Tories, who have a large majority on the Council anyway.

Thamesfield (Wandsworth)
By-Election Candidate	2010
Mike Ryder (Con)	56%
Christian Klapp (Lab)	17.7%
Lisa Smart (LD)	16.8%
Marian Hoffman (Grn)	9.6%

Tom Harris

Conservatives easily hold in Harrow

In the only by-election to take place this week the Conservatives easily held the Canons ward in Harrow, London. The vacancy arose following the death of long serving Councillor John Cowan and the Tories were expected to hold onto this seat comfortably. They did just that as Amir Moshenson eased to a 721 vote victory over his Labour challenger. The Conservatives did suffer a 3.6% swing against them from last year's result but this was due to the Liberal Democrats falling back at Labour's expense. In fact, the Tories' share of the vote rose slightly as the Lib Dems suffered a 7.9% drop.

The Council is currently controlled by Labour who enjoy an 8 seat majority with a pending by-election in another safe Conservative ward.

Harrow Council
LAB	CON	IND		LD		VAC
34	25	2		1		1
Canons
By-Election Candidate			Votes		Vote %		+/-
Amir Moshenson (E)			1495		59.7%		+0.3%
Nitin Parekh			774		30.9%		+7.5%
Darren Diamond			236		9.4%		-7.9%

By-Election Preview (2nd June)

There is just the one by-election this week and it is taking place in Harrow, London. The Conservatives are defending the Canons ward following the death of long serving Councillor John Cowan. Having first been elected in 1986 Cowan was due to receive an award for 25 years of public service the week after he passed away. His last re-election was in 2010 when he comfortably topped the poll ahead of his running mates.

With a gap of over 1500 votes between the third Tory and the top Labour candidates it is safe to say the Conservatives are expected to hold this seat comfortably. Labour have a significant Liberal Democrat vote to pick off but the Tories' results in the local Council elections earlier this month would suggest their own vote is holding up. As the Conservatives took the equivalent of 60% of the vote last year Labour have a lot of ground to make up to even get close to an unlikely gain.

Labour currently control the Council with a slim majority and this is one of two opportunities they will have in the coming months to increase it. Unfortunately for them the impending by-election in Stanmore Park will be just as difficult to win as the Conservatives will be defending another large majority in that ward.

Harrow Council
LAB	CON	LD	IND		VAC
34	24	1	2		2
Canons
By-Election Candidate				2010
Amir Moshenson (Con)				59.3%
Nitin Parekh (Lab)				23.4%
Darren Diamond (LD)				17.3%

Labour win both of this week’s by-elections

With the only by-election scheduled between now and May 5^th taking place in the Independent dominated Highland Council yesterday's two contests are likely to be the last with any real party political interest. Therefore, Labour should be quite pleased with their two victories just six weeks before the bumper night. They were expected to hold the Lewisham (London) seat but their victory in Torfaen (Wales) was less assured. They have an extraordinarily split Independent vote to thank for that particular success.

I'll start in Wales, where the Pontypool ward for the Torfaen Borough Council was vacant following the resignation of Independent Councillor Fred Wildgust. He had already been suspended for 12 months and was under investigation for another complaint made against him. Labour did not face a contest in this ward at the 2004 elections so it's slightly surprising that eight candidates put their name forward for this by-election. Labour were joined by the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and no less than five different Independent candidates!

As non-party candidates took almost 70% of the vote in 2008 a strong Independent challenge was expected. But it would seem non-partisan vote spread too thinly between the five of them as John Killick managed to win for Labour on less than a third of the vote. Mike Harris was the leading Independent candidate falling just 17 votes of winning the seat. Ian Williams, whose previous involvement with Torfaen's People's Voice party would have given him a high local profile, was quite a way back in third place.

The result is quite significant locally as Labour currently run Torfaen as a minority administration. The extra Councillor should come in very handy in the run up to next year's full Council elections.

Torfaen County Borough Council
LAB		IND		CON		PC		PV		LD
20	+1	11	-1	5	-	3	-	3	-	2	-
Pontypool
						Votes			Vote %
John Killick (E)						178			31.2%
Mike Harris						161			28.2%
Ian Williams						80			14%
Paul Valene						50			8.8%
Nigel Harris						46			8.1%
Sarah Bousie						25			4.4%
Adrian Lang						18			3.2%
Gaynor James						12			2.1%

It was a lot more straight forward for Labour in the London Borough of Lewisham. The by-election in the Bellingham ward was taking place following the death of Labour Councillor Ron Stockbridge. He came third in this three member ward last May but he was comfortably ahead of the fourth placed Liberal Democrat candidate.

Reports on the by-election seemed to indicate the Lib Dems had picked a strong candidate and run a good campaign so they were hoping to avoid the usual large swing to Labour we have become accosted to in these types of contests. It will therefore be quite worrying for them that the Labour candidate Jacq Paschoud won with such ease. Despite their efforts the Lib Dems still suffered a 10% swing from them to Labour and finished third behind the Conservatives. Not exactly a moral boost for any budding Lib Dem Council candidates contesting Labour held wards. This win just adds to Labour's huge majority in Lewisham.

Bellingham (Lewisham)
	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Jacq Paschoud (E)	1100	51.4%	+8.3%
Simon Nundy	340	15.9%	-3.1%
Jenni Steele	334	15.6%	-11.1%
Ian Page (Socialist Alternative)	264	12.3%	+12.3%
Phil Laurie	100	4.7%	-0.8%

By-Election Preview (24th March)

There are two by-elections taking place today; both in Councils which are not hosting local elections this May. Labour are defending a seat in Lewisham (London) and there is a vacancy in Torfaen (Wales) following the resignation of an Independent.

We'll start in Wales as it's a far less predicable contest. The by-election for Pontypool, Torfaen is taking place following the resignation of Independent Councillor Fred Wildgust. He had already been suspended for 12 months and was under investigation for another complaint made against him. Not exactly the best circumstances to be leaving public service! To illustrate how difficult this by-election is to call I'm going to break with tradition a pop the pretty table in here:

Pontypool (Torfaen)
By-Election Candidate	2008
- (IND)	52.1%
John Killick (LAB)	30.6%
N/C (People's Voice)	17.4%
Adrian Lang (CON)	-
Paul Valente (PC)	-
Sarah Bousie (IND)	-
Mike Harris (IND)	-
Nigel Harris (IND)	-
Gaynor James (IND)	-
Ian Williams (IND)	-

In 2008 Wildgust comfortably won the seat ahead of Labour and a candidate from the, now defunct, Torfaen People's Voice. However, this by-election has attracted Conservative and Plaid Cymru candidates along with a plethora of Independents. There are some clues as to where the previous two non-partisan voters might head. The outgoing Councillor has signed the Tory's nomination papers, which would suggest he leant to the right politically. Furthermore, Ian Williams was a key member of the Torfaen People's Voice and stood as the party's candidate for the Torfaen constituency at the 2007 Welsh Assembly Election. There is clearly a strong Independent vote in the ward but with five different candidates standing it will be interesting to see if any can stand out.

With eight candidates contesting this by-election it is hard to believe the Labour took the ward uncontested in 2004. They appear the most likely of the political parties to win this by-election and they have good reason to campaign hard as well. Labour currently run the Torfaen Council as a minority administration and the extra seat could come in very handy with just over a year until all out elections take place.

Torfaen County Borough Council
LAB	IND	CON	PC	LD	PV	VAC
19	11	5	3	2	3	1

The other by-election this week is, thankfully, more straight forward. The vacancy in Bellingham, Lewisham has arisen following the death of Labour Councillor Ron Stockbridge. He came third in this three member ward last May behind his two Labour running mates and just under 500 votes ahead of the top Liberal Democrat candidate in fourth. Given the changes in the political landscape since the General Election it's difficult to see Labour not enjoying a big victory here today. They currently enjoy a huge majority in Lewisham, and hold the Mayoralty, so in the extremely unlikely event they lose this seat they will remain in control of the Council.

Bellingham (Lewisham)
By-Election Candidate	2010
Jacq Paschoud (LAB)	43.1%
Jenni Steele (LD)	26.7%
Simon Nundy (CON)	19.0%
N/C (Comm. Need)	5.8%
Phil Laurie (GRN)	5.4%
Ian Page (Soc. Alt.)	-