Sunday 30 October 2011

October 2011 Local By-Election Summary


October 2011 Local By-election Summary: Votes Cast and Seats Won


Votes Cast
% Votes Cast
Seats Won
Change
Labour
13,314
35.58%
11
+2
Conservatives
12,544
33.52%
8
-3
Lib Dems
5,439
14.53%
2
Unchanged
UKIP
1,755
4.69%
0
Unchanged
Independents
1,673
4.47%
1
+1
SNP
1,139
3.04%
0
Unchanged
Green Party
563
1.50%
0
Unchanged
BNP
505
1.35%
0
Unchanged
Other Parties
492
1.31%
0
Unchanged

GAINS and LOSSES
Labour GAINS: Bloxwich East on Wallsall (from Con), Newchapel on Newcastle under Lyme (from Con)
Independent GAINS: Walton on Stafford (from Con)

It is now 18 months since the last general election and boy, what an 18 months it has been. From the heights of the first coaliton government since 1977 and the first one borne from a general election since February 1974 and the Downing Street Rose Garden love in, through the student riots last year following the Lib Dem U turn on student tuition fees, through the quite frankly disastrous set of elections in May of this year for the Liberal Democrats, the riots of the summer and just last week a massive backbench rebellion by 81 Conservative MP’s and 1 Liberal Democrat MP on the subject of an in/out referendum on Europe. But whilst that has been going up and down the United Kingdom there have been 280 local by-elections where (as the Liberal Democrats like to say) 508,040 real votes in real ballot boxes and overall those real votes are reflecting national opinion quite nicely. Labour and the Conservatives are battling for the lead (both on 32%), the Liberal Democrats are struggling to keep their heads above the Others (Lib Dem 18%, Others 18%) and of the Others, Independents lead with 5%, the SNP on 4%, Greens on 3%, UKIP on 2%, Plaid 1%, BNP 1%, Respect 0% and the myriad Others on 1% which is reflected in a general election would see the two main parties battling for the lead, the Liberal Democrats halved, the SNP winning their highest number of seats ever in a general election with the Greens winning an extra seat and local Independents winning in local battles.

But perhaps what is more interesting is how opinions have changed over the last year. In October 2010, Labour had a 6% lead over the Conservatives in the local by-elections held that month with the Liberal Democrats on a very respectable 20%. Now, the Conservatives have gained 4% on last October, Labour are unchanged and it’s the Liberal Democrats who have suffered (falling 6%) with the Other parties gaining 2% between them indicating a swing from Lib Dem to Con of 5%, Lib Dem to Lab of 3% and a swing from Lab to Con of 2% all of which proves that when it comes to elections of any type you can read what you want!

So what to look forward to in November, well November will be the last month of by-elections in Wales and Scotland as any vacancies created after December 1st will be filled in the local elections next May (as they will in any councils in England also voting) and so as well as reviewing the November elections next month, I will review all the Welsh by-elections over the last four years and see if we can get any indication of what the map of Wales may look like next May.

Saturday 29 October 2011

Labour hold off SNP in North Lanarkshire

Coatbridge North & Glenboig saw an easy hold for Labour on first preferences alone. In the absence of the minor party and independent candidates seen in 2007 and 2009, both Labour and the SNP saw their vote share rise. However, the SNP fell short of catching Labour, who won a little over half the vote.

Julie McAnulty's vote came in lower than the combined vote of the SNP and Julie's independent candidacy in 2009, suggesting that she may have lost some of her independent voters under her new party colours. She still performed well in a strongly Labour ward however, improving substantially on the SNP vote share in both 2007 and the 2009 by-election, with a percentage of the vote that would comfortably elect two SNP councillors here next May.

The Conservative share fell again on both 2007 and 2009 despite the reduction in candidates, possibly a result of a tighter squeeze between Labour and the SNP or otherwise a decline in popularity that gives a gloomy forecast for their hopes of retaining their sole North Lanarkshire seat next year. The Lib Dems, standing for the first time, polled a slightly smaller share of the vote than the Green candidate in 2009.

The turnout was very poor, with barely 1 in 5 registered voters turning out despite a day of unseasonably warm weather. This is still slightly better than the turnout seen at the last Lanarkshire by-election in East Kilbride West, but it's difficult to draw comparisons when considering that election was held during a severe all-day storm!

With no change in seats, North Lanarkshire Council remains under the control of a safe Labour majority administration.

North Lanarkshire Council

Lab

SNP

Ind

Con

LD

CIA

41

-

22

-

4

-

1

-

1

-

1

-

Coatbridge North & Glenboig

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-*

Michael McPake (E)

1529

52.4%

+3.1%

Julie McAnulty

1139

39.0%

+10.4%

Robert Burgess

174

6.0%

-4.3%

Graham Dale

78

2.7%

+2.7%

* change from 2007


Kristofer Keane

Thursday 27 October 2011

By-Election Night Live: 27th October

Join us from 2230. There could be as many as 6 by-election results tonight, although I'm not confident are counting tonight or we'll hear about them!

Wednesday 26 October 2011

By-Election Preview (27th October – Scottish Edition)

This week's Scottish by-election comes from the Coatbridge North and Glenboig ward of North Lanarkshire Council, which covers Coatbridge's town centre and northern suburbs as well as the rural area to the north between Coatbridge and Cumbernauld, encompassing the villages of Glenboig, Marnoch and Annathill.  This is also yet another one of those wards that's having a second by-election within the current local government term, which is somewhat statistically unlikely given the large number of seats that have seen no by-elections at all!

Four candidates are contesting the seat this time around.  Michael McPake is looking to defend the seat for Labour, which was previously held by the popular veteran councillor Tony Clarke who sadly passed away in August after a long battle with cancer.  Out of three Labour candidates in 2007, Clarke won more than half of the Labour first preferences, although this may be in part due to topping the three alphabetically as well as any personal vote.  There was a considerable Labour lead over the SNP in the 2007 first preferences, although this was somewhat reduced in the 2009 by-election.  

Potentially further reducing that Labour lead, the SNP candidate this time around is Julie McAnulty, who was the third-placed independent candidate behind Labour and the SNP in the 2009 by-election.   McAnulty has a campaigning history in the area, specifically with the Save Monklands Campaign which fought to protect the A&E department of the local hospital.  In 2009, her independent vote combined with the SNP vote would have given her a large lead over Labour, although with a large number of her votes transferring to Labour in 2009's final round, it's not a given that all her previous voters will still support her in her new party colours.

The Conservative candidate is Bob Burgess, a perennial council and parliamentary candidate, standing a second time here after also contesting the 2009 by-election.  Meanwhile the Lib Dems are contesting this seat for the first time, and the SSP and Greens are not standing this time around.

Overall, this is a very safely Labour ward within one of Labour's last remaining stronghold towns after May's Holyrood elections.  However, the personal popularity of the SNP candidate, as well as the voters she carries over as a previous independent candidate, will combine with the nationwide swing to the SNP to make this contest very competitive and too close to call.  Campaigners on both the SNP and Labour sides have told me they think the final result will be very close, although each side is expecting their own candidate to win it.

Coatbridge North & Glenboig

By-Election Candidate

2009 b/e

2007

Michael McPake (Lab)

37.2%

49.2%

Julie McAnulty (SNP)

30.5%

28.6%

N/C (Ind)

13.5%

-

Robert Burgess (Con)

8.8%

10.3%

N/C (Ind)

5.3%

-

N/C (Grn)

2.8%

-

N/C (SSP)

2.0%

3.2%

N/C (Ind)

-

8.7%

Graham Dale (LD)

-

-


 

Kristofer Keane

By-Election Preview (27th October - English Edition)

We have six by-elections this week with two key contests taking place in the West Midlands. The minority Conservative group in Walsall are hanging on to control by a thread and a Labour gain tomorrow in the marginal Bloxwich East would bring the two parties level in seats. The Tories are also at risk in Newcastle-under-Lyme where the Newchapel ward is up for grabs. They lead a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in the Staffordshire Borough but Labour have the most seats and will be looking to take control in next May's elections.

Later today we have Kristofer Keane previewing the North Lanarkshire by-election, but without further ado I'll leave you with Andrew Teale's rundown of tomorrow's English contests. TH

Bloxwich East, Walsall MBC; caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Bill Tweddle.

Arguably the northernmost town of the Black Country, Bloxwich became famous in the nineteenth century as the UK's foremost manufacturer of awl blades, as well as for other light metalworking. The town was swallowed up into Walsall county borough relatively early, and Walsall Corporation built council houses on much of the land now in this ward, which is entirely on the eastern side of the A34 Walsall-Stafford road; as a result most of the census areas rank highly in the indices of multiple deprivation.

In Walsall this doesn't translate into a safe Labour ward because of Walsall Labour's wacky reputation; the three seats split 2C/1Lab when the ward was created in 2004 and stayed that way until this May; Labour held on by just thirteen votes in 2006, the Conservatives held in the following two years with increasing majorities (296 in 2007, 745 in 2008), and Labour held rather more comfortably in 2010 by 248 votes.

The change finally came in May with a Labour gain by just 6 votes, and Labour now have a chance to gain the final Conservative seat in this by-election.

Walsall Council

Lab

LD

Con

Ind

Vac

26

5

27

1

1

Bloxwich East

By-Election Candidate

2011

2010

2008

Julie Fitzpatrick (Lab)

42.8%

45.8%

25.4%

Les Beeley (Con)

42.3%

39.8%

58.9%

Derek Bennett (UKIP)

8.1%

-

-

N/C (DLP)

3.8%

4.2%

6.8%

N/C (LD)

2.9%

10.1%

8.9%

Leandra Gebrakendan (Grn)

-

-

-

Chris Newey (ED)

-

-

-

Newchapel, Newcastle-under-Lyme BC (Staffordshire); caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Christian Barber.

The north-eastern corner of Newcastle-under-Lyme district, this ward covers a surprisingly hilly area between the towns of Kidsgrove and Biddulph which was once part of Kidsgrove Urban District. Running from Newchapel itself at the southern end, through Harriseahead and on to the hilltop village of Mow Cop, which rises to a summit of 335 metres (1100 feet) and straddles the Staffordshire/Cheshire border along the hill of the same name. The ward's two census areas are both in the middle of the deprivation indices.

The politics of the ward are quite interesting; when it was created in 2002 the Lib Dems won both seats, but promptly lost them in 2003 (to the Conservatives) and 2004 (to Labour; there was no Conservative candidate that year, presumably they messed up their nomination papers). The Conservatives decisively gained the Labour seat in 2008 but performed relatively poorly in a February 2010 by-election which saw a close three-way race for second place won by UKIP, who are very well organised in this borough.

Labour gained the ward in May by 50 votes and will now be looking to gain the other seat.

Newcastle-Under-Lyme Borough Council

Lab

Con

LD

UKIP

Vac

24

20

12

2

2

Newchapel

By-Election Candidate

2011

2010 b/e

2008

Elsie Bates (Lab)

32.7%

22.2%

23.3%

Carl Thomson (Con)

27.3%

33.5%

44.1%

N/C (Ind)

18.1%

-

-

Tricia Harrison (UKIP)

15.4%

23.8%

13.5%

Colin Brown (LD)

6.5%

20.5%

19.1%

Bude North and Stratton, Cornwall (Unitary); caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Nathan Bale.

Cornwall's northernmost town, Bude is a Victorian seaside resort with good surfing conditions, while its twin town Stratton, about a mile inland, is a more ancient market town which was once the centre of one of Cornwall's ten hundreds. Created in 2009 for the unitary Cornwall council, the ward is one of two-and-a-half wards within the area covered by Bude-Stratton town council; it contains the northern half of Bude, all of Stratton and the village of Flexbury just to the north of Bude.

In 2009 it was a straight fight between Conservative and Liberal Democrats, with the latter winning a by landslide; the Lib Dem Councillor had previously represented Poughill and Stratton ward on North Cornwall district council. Poughill and Stratton ward normally split LD/Ind, while Bude ward was safe Lib Dem in 2007 but the two seats split in 2003 between Lib Dem and Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalist movement, who were not far behind the two Lib Dem candidates in 2005 in the former Bude-Stratton county division.

Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties (and if there has ever previously been a Labour candidate here it's a very long time ago) plus an Independent amusingly named Louise Emo. It'll be interesting to see if there's an Emo vote here.

Cornwall Council

Con

LD

IG

MK

Lab

Ind

Vac

47

39

29

4

1

1

2

Bude North & Stratton

By-Election Candidate

2009

David Parsons (LD)

72.4%

Trevor Macey (Con)

27.6%

Louise Emo (Ind)

-

Adrian Jones (Lab)

-

Wyreside, Lancashire County Council; caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Bob Mutch.

This county division is basically the rural northern half of the Fylde peninsula, covering the area between Garstang and the Wyre estuary together with a few villages on the south side of the Wyre, the largest of which is Great Eccleston. The main settlements in the ward are Pilling, Preesall, Hambleton and Knott End-on-Sea, from which the ferry to Fleetwood departs that is the only link between Fleetwood and the rest of the Lancaster and Fleetwood parliamentary constituency. It's an agricultural and surprisingly low-lying area, with the main road from Pilling to Lancaster once regularly flooded by high tides. All of the division's census areas are within the 40% least deprived in England with the exception of Knott End, which has a significant retiree population.

The division is safe Tory and wasn't seriously contested in 2009; in 2005 it was a straight fight between Tory and Labour, the Conservatives winning with just under two-thirds of the vote. I'm not sure of the reason for the Green strength as the Greens only stood in one of the constituent district wards in May (Pilling, polling 21%), but this division does border the Green-held county division of Lancaster Central. The same Green candidate is contesting the election.

Wyreside (Lancashire)

By-Election Candidate

2009

Vivien Taylor (Con)

65.9%

Sue White (Grn)

21.1%

Kevin Higginson (Lab)

13.1%

Simon Noble (UKIP)

-


Thornton Dale and The Wolds, North Yorkshire County Council; caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Ron Haigh in order to care for his wife.

This is an enormously-sized division covering a swathe of countryside between Norton, Pickering and Scarborough. From the northern end it runs along the Whitby-Pickering road past the Hole of Horcum, down to the beautiful village of Thornton-le-Dale on the Pickering-Scarborough road (Thornton Dale ward), then across the low-lying Vale of Derwent to take in some small villages up on the Yorkshire Wolds (Rillington, Sherburn and Wolds wards). With the exception of Thornton-le-Dale, which is more upmarket, most of the census areas are in the middle of the deprivation indices.

The 2009 result suggests that this should be an easy Conservative hold.

Thornton Dale & The Wolds (North Yorkshire)

By-Election Candidate

2009

Janet Sanderson (Con)

61.5%

Mike Beckett (LD)

29.7%

N/C (Lab)

8.8%


Andrew Teale