September Local By-Election Summary

	Votes Cast	% Votes Cast	Seats Won	Change
Conservatives	10,832	35.17%	5	Unchanged
Lib Dems	6,599	21.42%	5	+1
Labour	6,500	21.10%	3	Unchanged
Green Party	1,802	5.85%	0	Unchanged
SNP	1,449	4.70%	1	Unchanged
Independents	1,243	4.04%	1	-1
UKIP	886	2.88%	0	Unchanged
Other Parties	766	2.49%	0	-1
Plaid Cymru	725	2.35%	2	+1

GAINS and LOSSES

Labour GAINS: Southmead on Bristol (from Lib Dem)
Liberal Democrat GAINS: Keswick on Allerdale (from Ind), Phoenix on Gedling (from Lab)
Plaid Cymru GAINS: Diffwys and Maenofferen on Gwynedd (from Llais Gwynedd)

For all the huffing and puffing last month very little changed actually. Yes, Plaid Cymru regained their majority on Gwynedd, Labour made their intentions in Bristol very clear and the Liberal Democrats proved that in the right circumstances they can make gains from anyone.

However, looking at the by-elections over the last year, it is amazing just how similiar they are to the national opinion polls. In the by-elections since September 2010, the Conservatives have polled 33%, Labour 32% and the Liberal Democrats 18% (remarkably in line with the September average which has Labour ahead by 3% and the Liberal Democrats an incredibly distant third) and as we know past local by-elections do have a very good knack of forecasting local elections (which would suggest on those numbers a poor night for the Conservatives (-5% on the 2008 national projected share), a dire night for the Liberal Democrats (-10%) and Ed Milliband being able to proclaim the best night for Labour in many a year (+9%)