Monday 28 February 2011

Welsh Assembly Referendum Poll (Feb 28th 2011)

Since the general election in Wales, You Gov has decided to do something rather unprecedented in Welsh politics, a set of monthly opinion polls (to give you an idea of how strange this is between 1999 and 2007 there were only six polls all conducted during the election campaigns themselves) so to get a series is quite a pleasant suprise.

So with three days to go until the referendum on the powers of the Assembly what does the poll have to say:

Yes, I agree that Wales should be given more powers 67%
No, I do not agree that Wales should be given more powers 33%

suggesting a landslide win for the YES campaign on a swing of 17% since the 1997 referendum (and leaving only Monmouthshire voting NO) with 21 local council areas voting YES

As well as asking the main question, they also asked a couple of other questions:

Do you believe the Assembly has performed well since 1999? YES 46% NO 17% Unsure 27%
What would you like to see happen to the Assembly next? 17% get rid it,13% no change, 35% more powers, 11% Scotland please, 6% Independence

The poll was conducted by YouGov on behalf of S4C and was broadcast on Yr Byr Ar Bedwar (The World on Four) at 9.30pm on February 28th 2011.

Thursday 24 February 2011

Where is the By-Election Preview?!

If you are dropping by to see what's happening in this week's by-elections I have some bad news; there aren't any! This is only the fourth Thursday since the General Election with a distinct lack of by-elections. They were the two weeks immediately after it and the lazy week between Christmas and New Year. But fear not, this is merely the calm before the storm…

Next week we have a Parliamentary by-election in Barnsley Central, a national referendum in Wales and five Council by-elections to keep us entertained. Almost all of them are foregone conclusions, but that won't stop us covering them! If you can't wait that long for an election there is a pretty important one taking place in the Republic of Ireland. If, like me, you don't really know too much about Irish Politics you should read Chris' crash course. It really is quite good!

We should probably also let you know that neither of us will be around much this weekend. We've scheduled a few more posts on the Northern Irish and Welsh Assembly elections to keep you entertained, and I'm sure Chris will struggle to stay away from the Irish election, but if anything exciting happens we might be a bit slow to it. This is primarily referring to the expected Welsh poll from YouGov. Having said that, Harry will be working on an updated forecast so we'll get there in the end.

In the meantime, if you're interesting in the Welsh Referendum I would recommend watching Question Time tonight. It's in Newport so I'm sure next week's vote will crop up! As for the lack of by-elections, I can only offer an apology akin to Blair's on slavery. I am truly sorry, but it's not personally my fault!

A Look @: Mid & West Wales (Part II)

This post looks at the four constituencies the within the Powys and Ceredigion Council areas as well as the seat in South Gwynedd. The other four seats in this region (Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire) are here and the list overview can be found here.

Constituency

AM

Majority

Swing Required

First Elected

GE2010 Result

B-V.co.uk

Brecon & Radnorshire

Kirsty Williams*

5354

9.3%

1999

LD Hold

LD Lean

Montgomeryshire

Mick Bates

1979

4.5%

1999

CON

Gain

Too Close

Ceredigion

Elin Jones

3955

6.6%

1999

LD Hold

PC Lean

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Dafydd Elis-Thomas

8868

20.1%

1999

PC Hold

PC Safe

The Liberal Democrats main area of strength in Wales is in the County of Powys, however their grip appears to be slipping as the Conservatives have made up ground in recent years. Like many Councils in Wales Powys is dominated by Independents and the handful of seats the established parties hold in this County are in the northern constituency; Brecon & Radnorshire. The Liberal Democrats far outnumber the other three with 12 of the 29 Councillors elected here and the hold both the Westminster and Assembly seats. Kirsty Williams was first elected in 1999 and in 2008 she became leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, defeating the Cardiff Central AM Jenny Randerson soundly to become the first female leader in Wales. The Conservatives are the usually runners-up here and they have selected Chris Davies to take on Williams. He'll have his work cut out though because if the Liberal Democrats win just one constituency seat, which is quite possible, it will be this one.

Looking at the Council results within the Montgomeryshire constituency to help analyse how this Assembly seat will break is largely pointless given that almost all of the wards are held by Independents. A glace at the previous General Election results however reveals a sustained period of Liberal dominance as they clung onto this seat even at their lowest ebb. Only twice since World War II has this constituency not been held by the Lib Dems (and their previous incarnations); 1979 and… 2010. In an election night lacking drama the eccentric Lib Dem Lembit Opik losing his seat was possibly the biggest shock, although seemingly not to those he represented. The Opik factor was almost certainly the key reason for that loss but unfortunately for the Lib Dems they are in danger of losing the Assembly seat as well due to the antics of their incumbent.

Mick Bates was a respected AM who indented to stand down at this election after serving three terms. However, since his decision Bates has attracted quite a lot of press for all the wrong reasons. After enjoying himself a little too much on a night out in Cardiff last year he fell/was pushed down a flight of stairs. Bates doesn't actually recall what happened, but a court has found him guilty of physically and verbally assaulting the NHS staff who came to his aid. The £5000 he has been fined is not the best end to a career but considering eyewitnesses thought that Bates was dead following his initial fall it could have been worse. The incident has certainly taken the shine of Bates' seemingly strong record as an AM, and combined with Opik's demise the Liberal Democrat brand here has suffered quite a bit. Wyn Williams has been selected as the Lib Dem candidate and considering they struggle to hold open seats at the best of times he faces a difficult task. The Conservatives sense a golden opportunity to do the double here following last year's success and they have chosen local Councillor Russell George as their candidate. George probably has the upper hand in this but, as Mr. Opik vouch, Montgomeryshire isn't the easiest to call. It's staying in the Too Close column for the time being.

On Ceredigion Council Plaid are the largest party, although an Independent led coalition is currently in control.
The Ceredigion constituency, which covers the entire Council area, is one of the few in Wales where the Assembly and Westminster seats were won by different parties at the last elections for each. Elin Jones has been the Plaid Cymru AM here since the inaugural election in 1999, however in 2005 the Liberal Democrats gained the Parliamentary seat and they held it again last May. In the May Mark Williams took over half the vote to comfortably, which was a slight surprise as the race was expected to be close. Williams' win in 2010 represented a 34% increase in the Lib Dem vote here since 1997, although as they had been strong in this seat historically their potential vote was out there. The Lib Dems have enjoyed a similar rise in their Assembly vote as they've improved from fourth in 1999 to within striking distance of Jones. They have selected local Councillor Elizabeth Evans as their candidate for this election but unfortunately for her national events seem likely to halt the Lib Dem march. It will be tough to overturn a 4000 vote majority at their current polling, especially as Jones is a seemingly popular AM.

The final seat in the Mid & West Wales region is Dwyfor Meirionnydd, which covers the south of Gwynedd. Gwynedd is the only Council area which has its (two) constituencies split between two regions, which is a bit awkward when you're trying to analyse them region by region! To be fair, the Council results aren't much help as Gwynedd is dominated by Nationalists and Independents. Plaid Cymru also dominate at constituency level, holding the Assembly seat since 1999 and the Westminster seat (give or take a few boundary reviews) since 1974. The Parliamentary seat is held by Plaid's leader at Westminster Elfyn Llwyd, who took over from the current AM Dafydd Elis-Thomas in 1983. Elis-Thomas put himself forward as Plaid's candidate here for the inaugural Assembly election and cruised to victory. He has enjoyed comfortably majorities ever since and it seems inconceivable that he will lose his seat in May. The Conservatives came second here in 2007 and they have selected their General Election candidate Simon Baynes to contest this Assembly seat. The Powys Councillor boosted his party's vote share by 8% last May, but even if he repeats that feat in 2 months time Elis-Thomas will still easily hold this for Plaid.

Wednesday 23 February 2011

Northern Ireland Votes: East Londonderry

Back to the North of the province today, as we hit East Londonderry; this constituency consists of the Eastern part of County Londonderry, not covered by Foyle, as well as a couple of areas of County Antrim. To its West sits the highly Catholic Foyle, to its East sits County Antrim, the spiritual heartland of the DUP. In many ways it is a profoundly average constituency – in terms of education, economics and family statistics. Its slightly more Protestant than average – about 60% to 35% Catholic, though the constituency demonstrates considerable variability across it. This internal variability means that, while on the surface it looks a bit unexciting; in reality East Londonderry has some very interesting dynamics bubbling away under the surface. You can see the 2010 Westminster result below:

Candidate

Party

Vote

Change

Gregory Campbell

DUP

34.6%

-6.3%

Cathal O’hOisin

Sinn Fein

19.3%

+1.9%

Lesley MacCauley

UUP/Con

17.8%

-1.9%

Thomas Conway

SDLP

15.4%

-3.9%

William Ross

TUV

7.4%

+7.4%

Bernard Fitzpatrick

Alliance

5.5%

+3.4%

In a sense a fairly uninteresting hold, but look at the breakdown. The divided nature of this seat is made clear. While the DUP is clearly the largest party the other three main parties all have a clear presence. Additionally the TUV and Alliance both did relatively well.

MLA

Party

First Pref

Round Elected

Gregory Campbell

DUP

20.2%

1

Francie Brollie

Sinn Fein

13.2%

7

George Robinson

DUP

11.8%

4

David McClarty

UUP/IND

8.5%

9

Adrian McQuillan

DUP

7.8%

9

John Dallat

SDLP

7.8%

8

Billy Leonard

Sinn Fein

N/A

N/A

Best Losers

Party

First Pref

Round Eliminated

Billy Leonard

Sinn Fein

7.1%

7

Norman Hillis

UUP

6.1%

9

Orla Beattie

SDLP

5.3%

7

Bernard Fitzpatrick

Alliance

4.1%

5

Edwin Stevenson

UUP

3.9%

4

Overall Result

Party

Vote

Seats

DUP

39.8%

3

Sinn Fein

20.0%

1

UUP

18.5%

1

SDLP

13.1%

1

Alliance

4.1%

0

The Incumbents

Gregory Campbell (DUP) is this constituency’s MP and a former Minister of Culture in the Northern Irish Executive (he lost his ministry when Peter Robinson announced that no DUP MP could be a minister in the executive). Campbell is a long time DUP activist who was the party’s perennial candidate for the seat of Foyle during the 80s and early 90s before transferring to this actually winnable seat in 1997, defeating the UUP in 2001 and holding the seat ever since. He has been a MLA for the seat since 2001. He was targeted by a particularly nasty facebook hate campaign in 2010. Considering he is the seat’s MP he may not run, in line with the DUP’s position on ‘double jobbing’, but if he does he’s safe.

Francie Brolly (Sinn Fein) retired from the Assembly in 2009, which is fair enough considering that the veteran politician was 71 years old. He was replaced by Billy Leonard his 2007 running mate, who got 7.1% of first preferences in 2007. Leonard is a rather odd Sinn Fein politician, because he was brought up Protestant, was a member of the RUC and is a former member of the Orange Order! Leonard has gone on a rather bizarre journey from unionist to SDLP councillor to eventually becoming a Sinn Fein MLA. Leonard has announced he will not be standing in May, leaving this seat open.

George Robinson (DUP) is a long-time local councillor, having been a councillor on Limavady council since 2002. He has an established political base in Limavady and his constituency office is based there. He has also a former Mayor of the town. While not prominent nationally he clearly has a strong base in the constituency and can get expect to get re-elected fairly easily.

David McClarty (Elected as UUP, now Independent Unionist). McClarty has been a MLA for this seat since 1998, and was a councillor since 1989, and was a former UUP Chief Whip. In December McClarty, a prominent moderate within the party, was deselected, and in response he left the party and has decided to stand again as an Independent Unionist. It’s difficult to tell how good McClarty’s chances are – he was a prominent MLA and it says something that of 3 UUP MLAs, including a fellow incumbent in Norman Hillis, McClarty was the only one elected in 2007. He may also be able to gain transfers from the cross-community vote, the Alliance in particular. Frankly predicting McClarty’s chances is probably only possible from County Londonderry itself and will depend on the level of infrastructure he can build in a short time, his local popularity vs. the popularity of the UUP party label, and how the transfers fall. If any readers are from the seat and would like to report on whether they’ve noticed any activity from the McClarty campaign, it would be most appreciated in the comments!

Adrian McQuillan (DUP) is a former postman turned Councillor on Coleraine Council since 2001. As a first term incumbent as far as I can tell McQuillan hasn’t made much of a mark on the Assembly and with DUP vote falling in May 2010 to a degree which would only elect 2.4 MLAs. I think McQuillan might be in trouble here, though the UUP/McClarty fight may aid him, and we should not count the DUP out here.

John Dallat (SDLP) is a former Mayor of Coleraine, the first Nationalist Mayor in fact. He has been a councillor in Coleraine since 1997, and a MLA since 1998. He is also SDLP spokesperson on the Environment. There is a decent SDLP vote which should only increase with the boundary changes. The SDLP would have to lose a lot of their 2010 support to lose the seat. Dallat was nominated for a ‘Slugger Award’ in ‘Constructive Opposition’ this year for his role in the NI Water crisis. If Dallat runs again he is sure to be re-elected. Though, that said, the SDLP has not released a candidate list here yet, and the 63 year old politician did not run in 2010 which makes me suspect he may retire. Either way the SDLP can be assured of holding this seat.

The Challengers

A bumper crop here then as the Sinn Fein seat is open and David McClarty and Adrian McQuillan’s seats both in danger.

Let’s start with the easiest seat. The Sinn Fein seat will undoubtedly be held by Sinn Fein. It is difficult to imagine that a seat in which they attained almost 20% of the vote last May will fall below the 14.4% quota level this May. Sinn Fein haven’t released their candidate list yet but I think it’s a safe bet that they’ll put up two candidates and that one of them will be last year’s Westminster candidate Cathal O’hOisin (I have checked, that IS the correct capitalisation). A local councillor, my suspicion is that O’hOisin’s selection in 2010 demonstrates a desire by Sinn Fein for the councillor to be the next MLA.

I covered some of the issues with the McClarty seat earlier. If McClarty does not win re-election the most likely outcome is that the UUP hold it. The UUP is running two candidates, Lesley Macauley and David Harding. Macauley was the party’s Westminster candidate last year, and is a former native of Belfast where she was a youth worker in the notorious Shankill area, as well as a NSPCC fundraising manager. Harding, on the other hand, was the party’s Westminster candidate in Foyle. Harding is a Vet, originally from Carlisle, but a native of Northern Ireland for 25 years now. As the former candidate for this seat Macauley is probably the more recognisable candidate but neither appears to have an established political base in the constituency, and so I find it difficult to call which has the better chance.

Alternatively to the UUP simply getting McClarty’s seat back it is worth recalling that STV elections are never truly binary affairs. McClarty could be elected and the UUP could win McQuillan’s seat. There is a strong UUP vote here – one that held up relatively well without McClarty on the ticket, so the real question is whether McClarty can take enough votes from his former party to be elected in the first place. If he reduces it by 7% or more than he’ll probably take the seat and the UUP will probably lose out. For what it’s worth my guess (and it is a guess, however educated) would be against this scenario however.

Alternatively there is a possibility for a TUV seat, but this will require an increase in the TUV vote (tricky), solid preferencing from other Unionist candidates (trickier) and a bit of luck. If the TUV is eliminated early on, however, their votes will likely return to the DUP, on the whole, helping them to hold the seat.

Lastly this seat holds a slight opportunity for the Alliance. Their vote has clearly been growing here for a while and in Bernard Fitzpatrick the seat appears to have an Alliance candidate who works the constituency quite hard, which is often the way the Alliance gets MLAs. There is an opportunity for decent transfers from the Nationalists too as the Nationalist vote is decent, but not quite high enough to elect a third candidate. All in all East Londonderry is one of the Alliance’s better chances for a gain in a seat they don’t currently have representation in. The big danger, however, is that, in McClarty, there is a figure who may drag off some of the Alliance vote (in particular, liberal Protestants who feel alienated from the DUP and the UUP).

All in all, seemingly ‘average’ East Londonderry could actually be one of the most interesting constituencies on the night.