By-Election Preview (10th February)

There are two by-elections taking place tomorrow the Conservatives are defending them both. We are back in Kent for the third time in as many months and there is a vacancy in a CON/LAB marginal for the Bassetlaw District Council (Nottinghamshire)

We'll start with Bassetlaw, where the imaginatively named Worksop North East ward is up for grabs. The by-election is taking place following the disqualification of Conservative Councillor Bill Graham for non-attendance. Graham's extended absence was for fairly legitimate health reasons, but as control of the Council is slipping away from the Tories they were unable to prevent Labour forcing a vote to trigger this by-election. Graham held his seat three years ago in a close two way battle with Labour, and as the reds already hold the other two seats in this multi-member ward they will be very confident of a gain. There have already been two by-elections in Bassetlaw since the General Election and Labour enjoyed significant swings towards them in both. They won Worksop North East last May with almost two thirds of the vote so the Tories will need a huge swing towards them just to hang on to this seat. A Labour gain is very likely, and this will further harm the Conservative minority administration currently clinging to power in Bassetlaw. The Tories will hold 23 of the 48 seats if they fail to win tomorrow, and with Labour breathing down their necks it will be touch and go if they hang on until this May's partial council elections.

Bassetlaw District Council
CON	LAB	IND			VAC
23	21	3			1
Worksop North East (Bassetlaw)
By-Election Candidate			2007	2008		2010
John Anderton (LAB)			52.6%	46.8%		64.1%
Barry Bowles (CON)			47.4%	53.2%		35.9%
Mark Hunter (LD)			-	-		-
Geoff Coe (IND)			-	-		-

The by-election in Kent is likely to be a lot easier for the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Romney Marsh ward has arisen following the death of Cllr. Willie Richardson, who comfortably won his County Council seat in 2009. UKIP beat the other main parties to take second place two years ago but as there strong performance is likely to be linked to the European elections which took place on the same day they are likely to fall back. Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are very competitive in this ward so the Conservatives should hold this. They also enjoy a big majority on the County Council, so even if there is a shock result tomorrow the Tories will still have control of Kent.

Romney Marsh (Kent)
By-Election Candidate	2009
Carole Waters (CON)	46.5%
David Cammegh (UKIP)	23.5%
Val Loseby (LD)	13.0%
Doug Suckling (LAB)	6.7%
Rochelle Saunders (IND)	6.6%
N/C (Shepway Independents)	3.6%