Wednesday 9 February 2011

By-Election Preview (10th February)

There are two by-elections taking place tomorrow the Conservatives are defending them both. We are back in Kent for the third time in as many months and there is a vacancy in a CON/LAB marginal for the Bassetlaw District Council (Nottinghamshire)

We'll start with Bassetlaw, where the imaginatively named Worksop North East ward is up for grabs. The by-election is taking place following the disqualification of Conservative Councillor Bill Graham for non-attendance. Graham's extended absence was for fairly legitimate health reasons, but as control of the Council is slipping away from the Tories they were unable to prevent Labour forcing a vote to trigger this by-election. Graham held his seat three years ago in a close two way battle with Labour, and as the reds already hold the other two seats in this multi-member ward they will be very confident of a gain. There have already been two by-elections in Bassetlaw since the General Election and Labour enjoyed significant swings towards them in both. They won Worksop North East last May with almost two thirds of the vote so the Tories will need a huge swing towards them just to hang on to this seat. A Labour gain is very likely, and this will further harm the Conservative minority administration currently clinging to power in Bassetlaw. The Tories will hold 23 of the 48 seats if they fail to win tomorrow, and with Labour breathing down their necks it will be touch and go if they hang on until this May's partial council elections.

Bassetlaw District Council

CON

LAB

IND

VAC

23

21

3

1

Worksop North East (Bassetlaw)

By-Election Candidate

2007

2008

2010

John Anderton (LAB)

52.6%

46.8%

64.1%

Barry Bowles (CON)

47.4%

53.2%

35.9%

Mark Hunter (LD)

-

-

-

Geoff Coe (IND)

-

-

-

The by-election in Kent is likely to be a lot easier for the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Romney Marsh ward has arisen following the death of Cllr. Willie Richardson, who comfortably won his County Council seat in 2009. UKIP beat the other main parties to take second place two years ago but as there strong performance is likely to be linked to the European elections which took place on the same day they are likely to fall back. Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are very competitive in this ward so the Conservatives should hold this. They also enjoy a big majority on the County Council, so even if there is a shock result tomorrow the Tories will still have control of Kent.

Romney Marsh (Kent)

By-Election Candidate

2009

Carole Waters (CON)

46.5%

David Cammegh (UKIP)

23.5%

Val Loseby (LD)

13.0%

Doug Suckling (LAB)

6.7%

Rochelle Saunders (IND)

6.6%

N/C (Shepway Independents)

3.6%

2 comments:

  1. There is a 3rd byelection today , Shepway DC Lydd ward caused by death of Conservative councillor ( same person who represented Romney Marsh ) .

    ReplyDelete
  2. There was also a by-election for Dyfan ward of Barry Town Council in the Vale of Glamorgan, Wales caused by resignation/non-attendance of a sitting Conservative councillor.

    Result:
    Claire Curtis (Lab) 562 44%
    Leighton Rowlands (Con) 321 25.1%
    Jeff Heathfield (Focus Barry Ind) 244 19.1%
    Stephen Blakeman (Plaid Cymru) 151 11.8%

    Majority: 241

    Labour gain from Conservatives.
    Barry Town Council now: Labour 13, Plaid Cymru 5, Conservatives 4.

    Pc change from 2008 election (combined vote of 2 seat ward):
    Lab +7% (was 37%)
    Cons -22% (was 47%)
    Focus Barry Ind +19% (didn't stand)
    Plaid -3% (was 15%)

    ReplyDelete