Forthcoming Westminster By-Elections

Having waited almost seven months for the first Parliamentary by-election we could have three in the near future. Last week the Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams was officially appointed to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead. The weird quirk in our Parliament means that the staunch Republican had to accept an office of the crown to vacate his Belfast West seat, although Adams claims he just resigned! He is doing so to contest the forthcoming Irish General Election which will take place later this month. Although Sinn Fein MPs do not actually take up their seats in Westminster Adams enjoys a massive majority in this seat and whoever replaces him as their candidate is sure to walk this by-election. It is customary for a member of the defending party to move the writ to call a by-election but in the absence of Sinn Fein MPs wondering around Parliament no one appears to have done so as yet. In addition, Sinn Fein haven't selected their candidate yet, so there isn't much to report for the time being. There was an outlandish rumour that George Galloway might stand as a SF backed Independent but despite the fact Gorgeous George's terrible Westminster attendance record during the last Parliament would sit well with the Irish Republicans' distain for Westminster it's unlikely!

	2010
Sinn Fein	71.1%
SDLP	16.4%
DUP	7.6%
UUP	3.1%
Alliance	1.9%

Preparations for a by-election in Barnsley Central are also underway, although the seat has not yet been officially vacated. Eric Illsley pleaded guilty to fraud charges relating to his expenses claims and he insists he will quit before he is sentenced this month. Some would like him to resign sooner but Illsley is apparently 'winding down his office'. Technically he can remain as an MP if he jailed for less than 12 months, but the precedent set in David Chaytor's case means he is unlikely to receive such a lenient sentence.

As Eric Illsley was re-elected despite the fact his expenses claims were well publicised it won't come as a huge surprise this is a pretty safe Labour seat. As such, the battle to become Labour's candidate was important than the actual election is likely to be. That took place last week and Dan Jarvis is the man who will almost certainly replace Illsley as the Barnsley Central MP. UKIP and the BNP are the only other parties to have selected candidates so far.

	2010
Labour	47.3%
Liberal Democrats	17.28%
Conservatives	17.26%
BNP	8.9%
UKIP	4.7%
Independent	2.0%
Independent	1.6%
SLP	1.0%

The final potential by-election is for Leicester South, where the sitting Labour MP Sir Peter Soulsby is hoping to win his party's nomination for the forthcoming Mayoral election in the city. The selection is due to take place at the end of the month, so we'll look a bit closer at this seat when we have a better idea if a by-election will go ahead.