Look @: South Wales Central (Part III)

The post looks at the list seats for this region. To find the Cardiff constituencies click here and for the other four (Rhondda Cynon Taf & Vale of Glamorgan) click here.

The 2007 Regional List Result was as follows:

Party	Const. Seats	Region Votes	Region Votes %	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	6	70799	33.9%	0	6
Conservatives	1	45127	21.6%	2	3
Plaid Cymru	0	32207	15.4%	2	2
Lib. Dems.	1	29626	14.2%	0	1
BNP	3.8%	Respect			0.5%
Green	3.8%	Socialist Alternative			0.4%
UKIP	3.7%	Communist Party			0.4%
Christian Party	1%	Christians Peoples			0.4%
SLP	0.8%	Socialist Equality Party			0.1%
Additional Members
1. Leanne Wood			3. Chris Franks
2. David Melding			4. Andrew Davies

The Most Likely Result

Compared to the South Wales East list this isn't easy to determine. The problem is there are some constituency seats in this region that are likely to be very tight. Labour could gain two seats in Cardiff; one from the Conservatives (Cardiff North) and one from the Liberal Democrats (Cardiff Central). As we are currently classified them as Too Close discussing a Most Likely result seems a bit daft. Instead I'll go through three scenarios; Labour fail to gain either, Labour gain one, Labour gain both. Although Labour are not exactly safe in all six seats they won in 2007 (see Vale of Glamorgan) current polling would suggest they are far more likely to increase their majorities than lose any seats. Therefore, this post will work with the assumption that Labour hold all their constituency seats. We are also using a uniform swing from the latest YouGov as a projection of the list vote shares.

Labour Gain 0 Seats…

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	6	45%	0	6
Plaid Cymru	0	16%	2	2
Conservatives	1	21%	2	3
Lib. Dems.	1	10%	0	1

If Labour fail to gain either of the targets in Cardiff then the seat allocation will remain exactly the same. This is largely because the swing is likely to be from the Liberal Democrats to Labour, and neither party has a regional seat to lose. Not only are the Conservatives and Plaid remaining stable in the headline polling figures for Wales there doesn't seem to be any significant regional variation in South Wales Central. So, let's meet the candidates who will be elected under this scenario.

If the above result occurred on 5^th May then the four current list Assembly Members would be re-elected. As in 2007 Leanne Wood would take the first seat, securing her a third term in Cardiff Bay. The second seat would go to Andrew Davies, who has usurped the more experienced David Melding as the Conservatives #1 candidate. The list selection pitted two of the Tories' most talented AMs against each other and following his victory Davies has been tipped as a future leader of the Assembly party. The third seat would then fall to Plaid's #2 candidate Chris Franks, who is just completing his first term in the Assembly. Finally, Melding, who was first elected in 1999, would take the fourth seat. Now for the fun bit…

Labour Gain 1 Seat…

Obviously, who they gain the seat off will make a big difference. For no particular reason, we'll look at the situation if Labour gain Cardiff Central from the Lib Dems first.

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	7	45	0	7
Plaid Cymru	0	16	2	2
Conservatives	1	21	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	10	1	1

As can often be the case in AMS, the party who loses the constituency seat does not suffer in terms of their total members. The Conservatives, and in particular David Melding, will be the worst affected in this scenario as they will lost their second regional seat. The first two seats will, like the first scenario, go to Leanne Wood (PC) and Andrew Davies (CON) then the Liberal Democrats' lead candidate John Dixon will take the third. The final seat will then go to Plaid Cymru's #2 candidate Chris Franks. So through no fault of his own Melding will lose his job, and it's hard to find a way for him to remain an AM if the Lib Dems do not win Cardiff Central. Essentially he would need the Liberal Democrat list vote to collapse to less than half their 2007 share, and for most of this to go directly to the Conservatives. The problem is the Liberal Democrat support is heading to Labour and the Green Party. In fact, if too much of the Lib Dem vote goes to the Greens, who have touched 9% in one subset for this region, then they themselves will be in a position to challenge Conservatives for this final list seat. Basically, without a significant surge in Tory support, if the Lib Dems lose Cardiff Central then Melding loses his seat.

So, what if the Lib Dems hold off Labour in Cardiff Central but the Tories fail to do likewise in Cardiff North?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	7	45	0	7
Plaid Cymru	0	16	2	2
Conservatives	0	21	2	2
Lib. Dems.	1	10	0	1

On current polling this scenario would mean all of the current list AMs would hold their seat, they would just get elected in a different order. The Conservatives would take the first and third seats and Plaid the second and fourth. So if Jonathan Morgan fails to hold his constituency seat then he is the only one to lose out. Well, the Conservative group in the Assembly will be a seat down, but this scenario doesn't produce any knock on effects for other parties in the list allocation.

Labour Gain 2 Seats…

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	8	45	0	8
Plaid Cymru	0	16	1	1
Conservatives	0	21	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	10	1	1

This is the scenario that really shakes up the regional allocation. If we use the uniform swing from the last YouGov survey then it is Plaid Cymru who loses out. From the 2007 result the Tories would drop one seat, but that would be their constituency AM Jonathan Morgan. They would take the first and third seats with Andrew Davies and David Melding returned to Cardiff Bay. Plaid would take the second seat, securing Leanne Wood a third term, but they would narrowly miss out on the fourth spot. On current polling John Dixon (LD) would just beat Chris Franks (PC) to the last seat. However, it would not take a lot for Plaid to hold onto their second list seat. If we push the Welsh Nationalists up to 18% and take a point off the Liberal Democrats then it would be a hypothetical dead heat for that final regional seat. So, if there is drama in Cardiff over the constituency seats then the regional list will provide plenty more!