Northern Ireland Votes: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

From the most South Westerly constituency yesterday, we go to the most South Easterly constituency today. Fermanagh and South Tyrone (often abbreviated as FST) covers the entirety of Northern Ireland’s least populated county, Fermanagh, and, as the name implies, the Southern part of County Tyrone. It is a large, rural constituency, but also relatively poor, in general, though there are more affluent areas. The seat is relatively mixed, with a slight Catholic majority (about 53-5%). As a result of the relative poverty, the proximity to the Irish border, and the mixed character of the constituency they breed their politics hardline down in FST, and the constituency has a mixed Westminster history. From its creation in 1950 it was held by the Nationalist Party on extremely thin majorities until 1955 when the Nationalists stood down in favour of a Sinn Fein candidate, Philip Lee, who on his election was disqualified for being in prison, making the UUP candidate, Lord Robert Grosvenor, MP. Grosvenor won in 1959 more legitimately after a Nationalist boycott, but the UUP continued to hold the seat from 1964 until 1970 in more equal circumstances. It then switched between nationalist unity MPs on the one side and UUP MPs on the other until 1981 when it was won by the famous Bobby Sands in a by-election. The seat was retaken by the UUP’s Ken Maginnis in 1983 until 2001 when he stood down and was replaced by Michelle Gildernew of Sinn Fein!

Similarly the parties down here tend to be hardline. Sinn Fein has been gaining ground on the SDLP for years, whereas the DUP has come to dominate over the UUP. The local UUP wing is also of a traditionalist slant. This is the constituency of UUP leader Tom Elliott, who is clearly on the party’s most hardline wing. As you might imagine, the cross-community vote down here is negligible.

The lesson from Westminster elections past has been that the community most able to homogenise around a single candidate gets the MP (something which will add an interesting dimension to the AV campaign in Northern Ireland). With poorer and poorer SDLP performances, while the DUP and UUP were fairly equal, that has increasingly been the Nationalists. As such in 2010 the Conservative Party mediated a deal between the UUP and DUP to run a joint candidate, Rodney Connor, a former Chief Executive of Fermanagh council, albeit one whose appointment was ruled unlawful due to apparent sectarian discrimination. Had Connor won he would have taken the Conservative whip on national issues, but been independent on local and Northern Ireland issues. This is what happened:

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
Michelle Gildernew	Sinn Fein	45.5%	+7.3%
Rodney Connor	Independent Unionist	45.5%	+45.5%
Fearghal McKinney	SDLP	7.6%	-7.2%
Vasundhara Kamble	Alliance	0.9%	+0.9%
John Stevenson	Independent	0.4%	+0.4%

Connor lost to Gildernew by 4 votes, the smallest margin in the entire UK. The SDLP vote almost halved, likely a result of tactical voting. The story of the 2010 election demonstrates FST’s polarisation better than almost any other, but also demonstrates the scars which Northern Ireland still must recover from. It is not healthy for any society to have elections which are such polarising events. Nonetheless, the 2007 result:

MLA	Party		First Pref	Round Elected
Arlene Foster	DUP		15.4%	1
Michelle Gildernew	Sinn Fein		15.1%	1
Tom Elliott	UUP		14.2%	2
Gerry McHugh	Sinn Fein/IND		11.0%	8
Maurice Morrow	DUP		10.1%	8
Tommy Gallagher	SDLP		9.6%	7

Best Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Sean Lynch	Sinn Fein	10.1%	8
Kenny Donaldson	UUP	5.4%	8
Vincent Currie	SDLP	4.4%	7
Gerry McGeough	Independent Republican	1.8%	6
Allan Leonard	Alliance	1.1%	6

Overall Result

Party	Vote	Seats
Sinn Fein	36.2%	2
DUP	25.5%	2
UUP	19.7%	1
SDLP	14.0%	1
Alliance	1.1%	0

The Incumbents

Arlene Foster (DUP) is one of the most prominent DUP MLAs in Northern Ireland. A long-term UUP rising star she was elected as a UUP MLA in 2003, but defected to the DUP shortly thereafter in a move masterminded by Peter Robinson. She was then the DUP candidate for the constituency in 2005, coming second, and after 2007 was made Environment Minister. She was then Enterprise, Trade and Investment Minister, and, most prominently, was made Acting First Minister when Peter Robinson briefly stood down to fight the accusations arising from ‘Irisgate’. Foster spent almost a month in the First Ministry before Robinson returned. Foster was born and raised in Fermanagh and her childhood experiences include surviving the bombing of her school bus, and her father, a part-time RUC officer, being shot in the head in her own home by an IRA officer (though fortunately he survived). As environment minister she was involved in controversy when she almost approved a plan to redevelop the Giants Causeway visitor’s centre from a private investor who turned out to be a DUP member. Nevertheless, she is a prominent MLA with a strong local base in the constituency who topped the poll in 2007. To suggest that I would be surprised if she lost her seat would be no mean understatement.

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein) is this constituency’s MP and and also the Minister for Agriculture and Rural Development in the Executive. She has been a MLA since 1998, at which time she was only 28. She is a Sinn Fein rising star of sorts, and like her fellow minister Foster, is a prominent local MLA. This is one of the few seats where Sinn Fein has announced its candidates and Gildernew is standing. It is claimed that she is relatively popular across the sectarian divide. She is safe.

Tom Elliott (UUP) is the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party. As I’ve already mentioned Elliott is considered to be from the party’s most hardline wing. Since becoming leader Elliott has said he will not attend gay pride parades or Gaelic Atheltic Association matches, thereby sending both socially conservative and more hardline sectarian signals. Some members of the party’s liberal ‘civic unionist’ wing have left the party in response, though he has reached out to other members. FST enjoys the strongest UUP party association in Northern Ireland by far, with 600 members the constituency accounts for around a quarter of the entire UUP membership, one of the reasons Elliott was elected leader (both due to support from FST members and because other UUP politicians envied the local infrastructure). This strength has been questioned but clearly the local UUP is unusually strong. Elliott can thus count himself as safe.

Gerry McHugh (elected as Sinn Fein, now Independent) was a Sinn Fein councillor who was a MLA here from 1999-2003, and was then re-elected in 2007. In late 2007 he left his party, citing a lack of internal democracy within Sinn Fein. McHugh has since joined the nascent Northern Irish wing of the Irish party, Fianna Fail, which is not standing candidates in this election, so it’s almost certain he won’t be standing.

Maurice Morrow (DUP) is Chairman of the DUP and Chief Whip. He is also a former Minister for Social Development, a local councillor with strong local links and a member of the House of Lords. Morrow and Foster have distinct bases in this constituency, with Foster focused on Enniskillen and Morrow on Dungannon. As such Morrow is fairly safe in my opinion.

Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) has been a prominent local politician here for some time, a perennial candidate for the Westminster seat since 1992 (though he did not stand in 2010), and an incumbent MLA since 1998. The veteran MLA is standing again for this seat. Based on the Westminster result Gallagher may be in trouble here, but then the veteran SDLP politician did not stand in 2010, so any personal vote was not applicable. The special circumstances of the vote also suggest a high tactical vote for Sinn Fein. That said the SDLP have been falling here for a while. The 200y result was hardly stellar, and a couple of thousand of votes swinging towards Sinn Fein could be all that's need to unseat him. The SDLP’s re-nomination of the 69 year old Gallagher perhaps demonstrates a fear of losing out without his experience and local prominence.

The Challengers

There is one seat open (Gerry McHugh’s) and one seat in danger (Tommy Gallagher’s). Sinn Fein is almost certain to retake McHugh’s seat, and are taking a definite shot at Gallagher’s. Sinn Fein’s two candidates, besides Gildernew, are Sean Lynch and Phil Flanagan. Lynch is chair of Fermanagh Sinn Fein, a former IRA man who was a leader in Maze Prison and the candidate in 2007 who barely lost out on a seat to McHugh. Phil Flanagan is a local councillor. To me Lynch looks like the more likely to get McHugh’s seat which leaves a battle between Gallagher and Flanagan. Only a small swing in the votes may be enough to elect Flanagan considering the 2007 and 2010 results.

Otherwise things should be fairly stable. There is little chance of a change in the make-up of the two blocs – they are two stable, and within the Unionist bloc the UUP is too strong for a DUP squeeze. FST’s history of solid segregated blocs is likely to continue.