Northern Ireland Votes: North Down

North Down is directly to the East of Belfast, and in particularly the East Belfast constituency, which it in some ways resembles. The constituency is heavily urbanised, and overwhelmingly Protestant, at only about 10% Catholic, only East Belfast is less Catholic. It is also the wealthiest constituency in Northern Ireland, the home of middle and upper class Protestants who wish to live within commuting distance of Belfast. There are minor areas of poverty, but otherwise the constituency is largely in the wealthiest 10% of areas in Northern Ireland. The constituency is also relatively elderly and has the largest number of people born outside Northern Ireland. North Down has a reputation for being rather free-thinking and oddball, the result of an educated, secular, population. A cursory look over former Westminster seat holders perhaps demonstrates this best. From 1970, the constituency was represented by James Kilfedder, who left the UUP in 1977 and subsequently founded the Ulster Popular Unionist Party. The UPUP was, in reality, a one man party, wrapped in the slightly unique Kilfedder who was, in many ways, a Unionist politician from another era, an old-style Stormont politician through and through. He was Speaker of an early, eventually aborted attempt, at a power-sharing assembly, and while certainly a Unionist he was passionate in his belief for reconciliation between Catholics and Protestants. DUP MLA Peter Weir has since referred to him as ‘the best MP North Down ever had’. He sadly died in 1995, and was then replaced, at a by-election, by another oddball Unionist MP, Robert McCartney, of the UK Unionist Party. McCartney is an integrationist – he believes in the elimination of the Assembly and the normalisation of Northern Ireland’s status within the UK. The ideal was actually rather liberal in a sense; the hope was to make every Northern Ireland citizen completely equal, both with each other and with other British citizens. McCartney became less popular with time and he lost his seat at the 2001 election to a UUP MP; back to normality then. Well except not, because that UUP MP was Lady Sylvia Hermon. Hermon, an Academic by profession, had joined the UUP due to her being impressed with its role in the Peace Process, and with David Trimble in particular. As such she was a true civic unionist, and her election was uncontested by the Alliance, who fully endorsed her. As a MP she demonstrated a certain pro-Labour streak unlike the majority of her Conservative-leaning colleagues. In 2005 the UUP collapsed, with only one seat remaining in their hands – North Down, oddball once again. In 2010 the UUP signed an alliance with the Conservative Party and Hermon left her party, remaining as a Independent Unionist. She stood as such in the 2010 election and then this happened:

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
Sylvia Hermon	Independent Unionist	63.3%	+63.3%
Ian Parsley	UUP/Con	20.4%	-30.0%
Stephen Farry	Alliance	5.6%	-2.0%
Mary Kilpatrick	TUV	4.9%	+4.9%
Steven Agnew	Green Party	3.1%	+3.1%
Liam Logan	SDLP	2.0%	-1.1%
Vincent Parker	Sinn Fein	0.7%	+0.1%

Truly North Down is the oddest constituency in Northern Ireland. I have to admit, I love North Down, it is brilliantly insane. As you might notice the DUP did not stand a candidate in this seat. Also notably the Conservative and Unionist candidate here, Ian Parsley, is actually one of the two Conservative candidates that stood in Northern Ireland. Hermon took votes from pretty much every party, so it is pretty hard to use this for indicative purposes! In any case the constituency is notoriously hard to call, which just makes my job all hunky dory. Fortunately for me North Down has experienced no boundary changes, so at least I don’t have to control for that! The 2007 result then:

MLA	Party		First Pref	Round Elected
Alex Easton	DUP		16.1%	1
Peter Weir	DUP		11.0%	10
Stephen Farry	Alliance		10.2%	7
Leslie Cree	UUP		9.6%	10
Brian Wilson	Green Party		9.2%	10
Alan McFarland	UUP/Ind		7.3%	10

Best Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Alan Graham	DUP	7.0%	10
Marion Smith	UUP	6.8%	10
Robert McCartney	UKUP	5.9%	7

Overall Result

Party	Vote	Seats
DUP	34.1%	2
UUP	23.7%	2
Alliance	10.2%	1
Green Party	9.2%	1
UKUP	5.9%	0
SDLP	3.6%	0
Sinn Fein	1.3%	0

Yes folks, that’s right, North Down currently has two cross-community MLAs, and one of them is a Green!

The Incumbents

Alex Easton (DUP) is a fairly atypical DUP MLA, he is a member of the (Anglican) Church of Ireland and the Orange Order, two features usually associated with UUP rather than DUP politicians (though he has never been a UUP member). He joined the DUP due to opposition to the Good Friday Agreement. A councillor in addition to a MLA, Easton appears to have a small personal vote here, and in any case the DUP vote in 2007 was solid enough that it should be able to elect two MLAs.

Peter Weir (DUP) is a former chair of the UUP’s youth wing. He was, however, opposed to the Good Friday Agreement. Nonetheless he remained a UUP member, becoming a UUP MLA in 1998, and neomh selected as the party’s candidate for Westminster here in 2001. However tensions between him and the party reached a crescendo and as such he was replaced by Sylvia Hermon. He soon after left the UUP, subsequently becoming a member of the DUP. Like Easton he is an Orange Order member. Unless the DUP vote substantially falls here, it should be enough to return both Weir and Easton, at least.

Stephen Farry (Alliance) is the seat’s sole Alliance MLA. Holding a PhD in International Relations Farry is a former Alliance General Secretary and the party’s finance spokesman, he was also North Down mayor in 2007/8. In some ways the Alliance vote appears fairly low, and at risk here, but the 2010 result obscures what was likely a large number of Alliance tactical voters. There is also a significant cross-community vote here. This is demonstrated by the fact that Farry was the second MLA elected in 2007, as he was a beneficiary of transfers from the large number of minor parties and independents, many of which were broadly cross-community. The high 2007 Green vote here is also likely to provide large transfers for Farry if it is eliminated. Farry can therefore count himself as safe in my view.

Brian Wilson (Green Party) is not the infamously eccentric lead singer and songwriter of the Beach Boys, but rather this Northern Ireland’s sole Green Party MLA. Wilson has a long pedigree in cross-community politics. He was a member of the now defunct Northern Ireland Labour Party, campaigning for them as early as 1965, and then joined the Alliance in 1975. He left the Alliance in 1997, and then stood as an Independent in local council elections, each time topping the poll. He stood as an Independent Assembly candidate in 1998 and 2003. In 2004 he joined the Green Party, and sensationally unseated Robert McCartney to take this seat in 2007. Wilson has announced he is standing down at this election. The contest to succeed him promises to one of the most exciting in Northern Ireland as on the one side the Green Party is standing their new leader, Steven Agnew, whereas the Alliance is standing one Councillor Anne Wilson, the wife of the incumbent (NORTH DOWN!!!). We shall, of course, discuss this all later.

Leslie Cree (UUP) has been a member of North Down borough council for 20 years and has twice served as Mayor, most recently during 2008/9. He is also the party’s spokesman on Enterprise, Trade and Investment. Cree is pretty sure to be re-elected as, on the one hand, he is a long-serving local politician, on another there is a decent UUP vote here, and finally due as for reasons we shall soon discuss his running mate, Alan McFarland, will not be standing this time.

Alan McFarland (Elected as a UUP MLA, since become an Independent) was once a UUP heavy hitter of sorts. A former Army major, he was a candidate in the race to succeed David Trimble. He was narrowly beaten by Reg Empey. Empey later planned to make McFarland Minister of Health while he would take the second UUP cabinet role. McFarland refused, arguing that Empey should concentrate on leading the party rather than holding an Executive post. As such Michael McGimspey became Health Minister instead. McFarland’s tensions with the party reached breaking point when it made its electoral pact with the Conservatives and he left the party only a couple of weeks after Lady Hermon. McFarland appears not to be standing again, either as an independent or a member of another Unionist party.

The Challengers

So, then, there are two seats open, that of Wilson and that of McFarland. The biggest question mark in North Down, in my opinion, is the nature of Brian Wilson’s 2007 vote. Is Wilson’s vote a ‘cross community’ vote, or is it simply an expression of support for a clearly popular and hard-working local councillor. How much of it was genuinely for the Green Party of Northern Ireland, and how much was for Wilson himself? I have no idea what the answer to this question is, but let’s look at the people most likely to replace the two outgoing MLAs.

The second, easier to answer, question in this seat is what chance of regaining their lost seat do the UUP have. The UUP are hoping to replace McFarland with Colin Breen, the chair of the North Down UUP constituency association. A businessman and former police officer Breen is sometimes called upon by media outlets to speak on security-related matters. As such Breen is likely well known. Nonetheless while there is a fair UUP vote here, it is weak, and clearly the DUP will go for this seat.

The DUP’s recent attempts to liberalise and soften their appeal may help to win over some UUP voters here. It is not yet clear what the DUP’s candidate list will be here, but with a strong slate McFarland’s seat is clearly in reach. If the DUP can swing as few as a couple of thousand voters from UUP to DUP they will likely take the seat.

Alternatively the TUV have a small but notable chance here. The seat has always had a certain integrationist viewpoint to it, in line with the TUV’s views. If the party can sweep up the former supporters of Robert McCartney they may be in with a shot. McCartney did, in fact, speak at the TUV conference last year, though he is unlikely to join the party. They will need to gain voters from elsewhere to gain a seat, but if they are capable of selling their platform in a softer way than they have hitherto attempted they may be able to pull off a shock win. As unpredictable as North Down is, however, I would personally bet heavily against this scenario.

The Green Party is standing Steven Agnew, their new leader. At only 31, Agnew is a young party leader. Agnew stood in Belfast East at the last election and was then Wilson’s research officer. Agnew joined the party in 2003 in response to the Iraq War. Agnew’s challenge is to recreate the momentum of 2007 which elected Brian Wilson, this will be a particular challenge as the Alliance are standing Councillor Anne Wilson, the wife of Brian Wilson. Essentially therefore, we have a test of party versus name. Councillor Wilson is also a strong local figure in her own right – a former Mayor, and a community activist. These two will fight out for Wilson’s vote, the assumption presumably being that if either is eliminated their vote will transfer to each other. The Green Party is likely to focus their entire infrastructure into this seat on a model of seat targeting that has worked for other Green Parties in the past (most notably the election of Caroline Lucas in Brighton in 2010). There is almost certainly not a large enough vote here for either Alliance or the Greens to win both the open seats, therefore this is a true zero sum game. Yet they must be careful. If they split the vote too much, or if Wilson’s vote goes to other parties there is a possibility of allowing a Unionist to take the seat. I’m not even going to try to call this one, but I for one think that this may be the single most interesting election battle in Northern Ireland.