Northern Ireland Votes: North Antrim

North Antrim is a special constituency, in many ways the traditional home of the DUP. Ian Paisley originally won the seat in 1970 as a ‘Protestant Unionist’, he formed the DUP a year later and held until 2010 when he became a Lord. His son, Ian Paisley, Jr. now holds the seat, the DUP being a fan of change. Whilst this is a heavily DUP seat there is a Catholic minority here, specifically the 2001 census puts the population at 27.68% Catholic, but 38.51% of the constituency is Presbyterian, the highest in Northern Ireland. Most of these people are likely primarily members of the Free Presbyterian Church, Ian Paisley’s evangelical church which has long been linked with the DUP. Here is the 2010 Westminster result:

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
Ian Paisley, Jr.	DUP	46.4%	-10.4%
Jim Allister	TUV	16.8%	+16.8%
Daithi McKay	Sinn Fein	12.4%	-1.8%
Irwin Armstrong	UUP/Con	10.9%	-4.1%
Declan O'Loan	SDLP	8.8%	-2.2%
Jayne Dunlop	Alliance	3.2%	+0.2%
Lyle Cubitt	Ind. Unionist	1.4%	+1.4%

The seat was, of course, held by the DUP with Ian Paisley, Jr. holding his father’s seat with 46.4% of the vote. This represented a loss of 10.4%, this is probably due to a combination of things. Firstly, Paisley, Sr. was the single most prominent politician the DUP has ever had, and probably will ever have. Junior has been a MLA for this constituency since 1998. Yet he has also garnered controversy with revelations of being on his father’s payroll as well as being a MLA and a junior minister. As such he was accused of being the beneficiary of nepotism and garnered controversy. He has also garnered controversy for comments on homosexuality and the occasional public blunder.

Notable as well in this constituency was the campaign of TUV leader Jim Allister. The TUV is often accused of being a one-man band and Allister is perhaps its only member of real note. While he came far behind Paisley Jr. Allister came second in the constituency. If the TUV only gets 1 seat in this Assembly election then North Antrim will be where it gets that seat. The UUP/Conservative party candidate fell back significantly, probably a result of the concentration on the Paisley/Allister battle. Lyle Cubitt, a former member of the wound-up hard-unionist UKUP gained 1.4% running an independent campaign. The two nationalist parties fell back, a reflection of the move of some nationalist areas from North Antrim into East Antrim. Here is the 2007 Assembly result and current MLAs:

MLA	Party	First Pref	Round Elected
Ian Paisley, Sr.	DUP	17.4%	1
Daithi McKay	Sinn Fein	15.9%	1
Ian Paisley, Jr.	DUP	13.8%	2
Mervyn Storey	DUP	11.7%	8
Robert Coulter	UUP	11.4%	7
Declan O'Loan	SDLP/Ind	7.4%	10
Paul Frew	DUP	N/A	N/A

Best Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Deirdre Nelson	DUP	6.2%	10
Orla Black	SDLP	4.8%	9
Lyle Cubitt	UKUP	4.2%	7
Robin Swann	UUP	2.9%	6
Jayne Dunlop	Alliance	2.8%	5

Overall result

Party	Vote	Seats
DUP	49.0%	3
Sinn Fein	15.9%	1
UUP	14.3%	1
SDLP	12.2%	1
UKUP	4.2%	0
Alliance	2.8%	0

The Incumbents

Ian Paisley Sr. (DUP) is without a doubt the single most well known Unionist politician in all Northern Ireland. The former DUP leader stepped down as leader and first Minister in 2008, stood down from Westminster in 2010, and became a Lord shortly afterwards. Paisley has not announced whether he will contest this seat or not in May, though I would bet on ‘not’. If he does continue to stand for election I would bet on Ian Paisley not only holding his seat but once again topping the poll.

Daithi McKay (Sinn Fein) is Sinn Fein’s environmental spokesman and a prominent Sinn Fein MLA. Born in 1982, McKay is currently the youngest MLA in the Northern Irish Assembly. He won Slugger O’Toole’s ‘up-and-comer’ award in 2008. As SF’s sole candidate in 2007 he came second only to Paisley, in a Unionist dominated constituency. He is also notable for his popular blog. Whlle there has been a loss of nationalist voters in the seats due to the boundary changes, as a prominent young MLA with a solid base of support McKay can almost certainly count himself as safe.

Ian Paisley, Jr. (DUP) stepped down as a MLA in 2010, in order to become the Westminster MP for this seat. He was replaced by Paul Frew a councillor in Ballymena, in this seat. As far as I can tell Frew is a low-key Assembly member and I’ve had difficulty getting any information on him at all. Considering this and the fact that he has only been a MLA for less than a year I believe it is safe to say that Frew is the weakest of the current DUP MLAs. However in the likely event that Paisley Sr. stands down he can be considered safe.

Mervyn Storey (DUP) has been a MLA since 2003. He is most famous for his various comments in favour of Intelligent Design, but this is North Antrim where Christian fundamentalism is strong so that’s not a particular issue for Storey. Storey looks relatively safe to me, and assuming Paisley, Sr. stands down probably stands a fairly good chance of topping the poll in North Antrim.

Rev. Robert Coulter (UUP) is the second oldest MLA in Northern Ireland, with only Paisley, Sr. being older. Coulter is standing down at this election.

Declan O’Loan (SDLP/Ind) was elected last in 2007. In 2010 he made public calls for ‘Nationalist unity’, essentially the beginnings of a merger with Sinn Fein. He was promptly suspended from the SDLP Assembly party though he remains a member of the SDLP organisation. Considering that his 2007 running mate, Councillor Orla Black, announced that she agreed with him, he may be brought back into the Assembly party but the SDLP has not announced their candidates for this seat in May yet, and so it is not yet clear whether he will be running under the SDLP flag. If he is not, he also has the option of running as an Independent. If he is a candidate in the election he is relatively weak anyway, winning only 7.4% of first preference votes in 2007, and winning his seat through transfers from his fellow SDLP member Orla Black and through transfers from Daithi McKay, the sole Sinn Fein candidate.

The Challengers

So then, is one seat which is definitely open (Coulter’s), one seat likely open (Paisley’s) and one seat is in serious danger (O’Loan’s).

On the Unionist side North Antrim will likely be victim to one of the most interesting contests of 2011. While the Traditional Unionist Voice has not yet released their candidate list it is the conventional wisdom that Jim Allister will be running here. As the former DUP MEP for Northern Ireland Allister is high profile and well known. As this seat is particularly Unionist Allister is running on decent ground. He will almost certainly suck up the majority of the 4.2% of voters who voted for the hardline UK Unionist Party here in 2007, and will probably dig further into the DUP and to a lesser extent the UUP vote as well. If Allister’s 2010 result is repeated he will certainly be elected, however the conventional wisdom is that the TUV has probably fallen back slightly since then. If the TUV does win the seat the question is who they take it from. That is itself, largely a question of where its voters come from. If there is a substantial transfer of voters from DUP to TUV then Allister will likely take the third DUP seat. As for the other two seats I have highlighted that depends on their individual factors.

Robert Coulter’s seat is an interesting one. While Coulter is a UUP MLA he is also a Presbyterian Minister. From what I can tell he is on the more hardline end of the UUP spectrum as well. This suggests that, while of the UUP, Coulter perhaps has a personal vote. That said, the UUP did manage 10.9% here in May 2010, despite being squeezed by a perceived DUP vs. TUV race. With transfers from other Unionist candidates the UUP should be able to hold the seat. The UUP is running two candidates, Robin Swann and Bill Kennedy. Kennedy is the former Mayor of Ballymoney, whereas Swann is the party’s spokesman on Energy and Consumer Affairs, and an active member of local bodies such as the Young Farmers’ Club of Ulster. As Coulter’s 2007 running mate and the Conservative and Unionist candidate in 2010, I feel that Swann is probably the better known candidate and therefore the more likely to get elected. The fact that the UUP is running two candidates suggests they feel they are sure to hold the seat, but the chances of them electing a second MLA appear low to me. It is possible if the transfers from other Unionist parties lie just the right way, but otherwise I would bet on just Swann being elected.

Declan O’Loan’s seat is in serious danger. With nationalist voters having been moved out of the constituency the SDLP position is even weaker. If the SDLP does not accept O’Loan back into the party they also suffer from issues of running a less well known candidate. Sinn Fein could also attempt to challenge for this seat considering their 2007 result, but it is unlikely, in my opinion, that they would take the seat. Rather their second candidate’s vote would probably simply transfer to the lead SDLP candidate. The seat is thus actually wrapped up in the DUP/TUV battle I outlined above. The future of this seat largely depends on how the specific votes and transfers fall. If Allister gains a seat, it may not be the DUP which loses a seat, but rather the SDLP. Alternatively if Allister does particularly badly and the majority of his voters transfer to the DUP there is a possibility for a fourth DUP seat in this traditional DUP stronghold.