Foyle covers the city of Derry (or Londonderry to some Unionists), as well as a couple of nearby villages. The second biggest city in Northern Ireland, it was, until 1994, Northern Ireland’s only city besides Belfast. The city has historically been Catholic dominated, and the constituency is the second most Catholic in Northern Ireland with about 71%-75% Catholic. It has been becoming more and more Catholic as time has marched on, though there is still a noticeable Protestant minority. Like most cities Derry contains an extreme mix of rich and poor areas, though overall it lags behind Northern Ireland as a whole. Despite this, however, the population is relatively well educated. The constituency is very young, demographically, with a high population of young adults. The constituency has been relentlessly predictable since its creation in 1983, being held by the SDLP ever since. In fact this is the last of the 3 Westminter SDLP seats in Northern Ireland but one of the most solid. It was initially held by former SDLP leader John Hume, who was then succeeded by former SDLP leader Mark Durkan who continues to hold the seat to this day. In the Assembly there has, similarly, been a consistent result: the seat has returned 3 SDLP, 2 Sinn Fein and 1 DUP MLAs since 1998. The 2010 constituency result then:
| Candidate | Party | Vote | Change |
| Mark Durkan | SDLP | 44.7% | -1.7% |
| Martina Anderson | Sinn Fein | 31.9% | -1.4% |
| Maurice Devenney | DUP | 11.8% | -2.2% |
| Eamonn McCann | People Before Profit | 7.7% | +7.7% |
| David Harding | UUP/Con | 3.2% | +0.9% |
| Keith McGrellis | Alliance | 0.6% | +0.6% |
Overall, not much change then. Perhaps the only notable result is that of the far-left People Before Profit, getting 7.7%. With a fair wind and decent transfers that might be enough to gain a seat. We’ll look into that later! 2007:
| MLA | Party | First Pref | Round Elected |
| William Hay | DUP | 17.0% | 1 |
| Mark Durkan | SDLP | 15.6% | 1 |
| Martina Anderson | Sinn Fein | 13.2% | 6 |
| Raymond McCartney | Sinn Fein | 10.5% | 8 |
| Pat Ramsey | SDLP | 7.9% | 10 |
|
| SDLP | 6.5% | 7 |
| Pol Callaghan | SDLP | N/A | N/A |
| Best Losers | Party | First Pref | Round Eliminated |
| Lynn Fleming | Sinn Fein | 7.1% | 7 |
| Helen Quigley | SDLP | 6.5% | 10 |
| Eamonn McCann | Socialist Envirionmental Alliance | 5.0% | 6 |
| Peggy O'Hara | Independent | 4.4% | 4 |
| Peter Munce | UUP | 4.3% | 7 |
Overall Result
| Party | Vote | Seats |
| SDLP | 37.0% | 3 |
| Sinn Fein | 30.8% | 2 |
| DUP | 17.0% | 1 |
| Socialist Environmental Alliance | 5.0% | 0 |
| UUP | 4.3% | 0 |
| Green Party | 0.9% | 0 |
| Alliance | 0.5% | 0 |
The Incumbents
William Hay (DUP) is this constituency’s sole Unionist MLA. He is also the speaker of the Assembly. There are only enough Unionists votes here to elect a single MLA and the Unionist vote is homogenised well behind Hay, so he is almost certainly safe.
Mark Durkan (SDLP) is the former SDLP leader, while he is still MP for this seat he has stood down as a MLA and been replaced by Pol Callaghan, a former political advisor to Durkan, and an employee of John Hume before that. While only a recent (November 2010) addition to the Assembly, the SDLP is only standing 1 candidate who was elected in 2007 (Pat Ramsey) and as an important part of Durkan’s team Callaghan can probably expect decent support for his run, and so I think he can be assured of being returned to the Assembly.
Martina Anderson (Sinn Fein) is a former IRA member who participated in the bombing of the Conservative Party conference in 1984. A former glamour model Anderson gained the sobriquet the ‘beauty queen bomber’ and was given a life sentence, and was the 200th prisoner released under the Good Friday Agreement. It perhaps demonstrates what interesting times we live in that Anderson is now Sinn Fein’s ‘Director of Unionist Engagement’. She was the Westminster candidate here in 2010. As the more prominent Sinn Fein MLA in this constituency Anderson can call herself safe I feel.
Raymond McCartney (Sinn Fein) is the second Sinn Fein MLA in this seat. Like Anderson, McCartney is a former IRA member who served time in Maze Prison, this time for murder (though he has since been cleared by the Court of Appeals). McCartney was a hunger striker in Maze. Since then McCartney has been prominent due to his involvement in prisoner groups. There should be more than enough support to elect two Sinn Fein MLAs here and so McCartney should be fine.
Pat Ramsey (SDLP) is the only SDLP MLA here elected in 2007 that is standing again this year. A former local mayor Ramsey gained some press attention when he had to leave his home due to attacks on it, seemingly by dissident republicans. While Ramsey’s 2007 performance was less than stellar he is the only SDLP candidate to have served on the Assembly for more than six months he is probably safe.
Mary Bradley (SDLP) is another former Mayor of Derry. A MLA since 2003 the 68 year old Bradley has decided to retire at this election.
The Challengers
There is one seat open then: Bradley’s. Firstly we can rule out any Unionist, Alliance, or Green candidate getting the seat, unless they come out of nowhere. Sinn Fein will certainly go for the seat, there is no reason not to, but the party will have to perform extremely well to win the seat. Even if the party defeats the SDLP in first preferences it may not be enough to take the seat as Unionists and cross-community parties, especially People Before Profit, are more likely to preference the SDLP. A Sinn Fein gain here will require substantial improvement.
Another possibility is that of Eamoon McCann of People Before Profit being elected. PBP claims to be a broad alliance opposed to neoliberalism, but, from what I can tell, it is primarily a Trotkyist group dominated by the Irish Socialist Worker’s Party. McCann ran as a candidate for the Socialist Environmental Alliance, another SWP dominated group in 2007 and got a respectable 5.5% when the SEA was perceived to be on its way out. He then got 7.7% in 2010 as a PBP candidate. If he can hold that figure in 2007, or improve on it, and get decent transfers he could take the seat, albeit this strikes me as a slightly unlikely series of hypothetical scenarios. I do not personally believe that the Trotskyist vote here is likely to be particularly high so McCann’s success may somewhat depend on how well the party can hide its sympathies until May.
The most likely outcome, then, is the SDLP holding the seat. The SDLP is running four candidates in this seat – the two current MLAs, and Colum Eastwood, a local councillor, and the youngest ever Mayor of Derry, and Mark H. Durkan, another local councillor and nephew of the MP of the same name. Both are high quality candidates, and it is difficult to tell who is more likely to be elected. It is hard to see why the SDLP is running four candidates here when the numbers do not justify it, however. It also runs a small, but present risk, of letting in another candidate if the vote is poorly balanced.
However, I will be very surprised if, on polling day, good old stable, dependable Foyle does not return 3 SDLP, 2 Sinn Fein, and 1 DUP MLA.
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