Northern Ireland Votes: South Antrim

The last of the three Antrim seats is South Antrim. South Antrim is partially rural but largely suburban. Particularly notable is the Belfast commuter belt town of Newtownabbey. South Antrim is much less DUP dominated than either East or North Antrim. The population is younger than average in Northern Ireland, and while, as in all of Antrim, Protestants dominate, 26.84% of the people were Catholic in 2001. The more suburban population means this constituency is relatively strong for the UUP, and there’s a relatively decent Alliance vote too. When I wrote the Britain-Votes guide to this election I purposefully chose South Antrim to demonstrate the workings of the electoral system as there is a reasonable vote here for all five major parties. Here’s the 2010 Westminster result for your perusal:

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
William McCrea	DUP	33.9%	-6.4%
Reg Empey	UUP/Con	30.4%	+0.9%
Mitchel McLaughlin	Sinn Fein	13.9%	+3.2%
Michelle Byrne	SDLP	8.7%	-2.7%
Alan Lawther	Alliance	7.7%	-0.6%
Melwyn Lucas	TUV	5.4%	+5.4%

As with the rest of Antrim, this seat was won by the DUP, in this case William McCrea. The Conservatives and Unionists ran the then UUP leader Reg Empey, who ran McCrea relatively close, and scored the best UUP result in the province, but who still failed to win the seat (Empey resigned as leader soon after for this precise reason). The UUP got a slight gain, probably from a mix of the Alliance, and the DUP. The DUP lost 6.4% of the vote, probably mostly to the TUV, who once again failed to impress. In the Nationalist community Sinn Fein clearly outperformed the SDLP. Boundary changes should have theoretically reduced the Nationalist vote, but in actuality it slightly climbed (one should remember that these assumptions are based upon a census which is now nearly 10 years out of date). So the 2007 Assembly election result then:

MLA	Party	First Pref	Round Elected
Mitchel McLaughlin	Sinn Fein	16.5%	1
William McCrea	DUP	15.8%	1
David Ford	Alliance	13.1%	5
David Burnside	UUP	11.8%	7
Trevor Clarke	DUP	11.3%	8
Thomas Burns	SDLP	7.1%	8
Paul Girvan	DUP	N/A	N/A
Danny Kinahan	UUP	N/A	N/A

Best Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Mel Lucas	DUP	7.4%	8
Danny Kinahan	UUP	6.3%	6
Noreen McClelland	SDLP	4.0%	6
Stephen Nicholl	UUP	2.4%	4

Overall Result

Party	Vote	Seats
DUP	34.5%	2
UUP	20.5%	1
Sinn Fein	16.5%	1
Alliance	13.1%	1
SDLP	11.1%	1

The Incumbents

Mitchel McLaughlin (Sinn Fein) caused a bit of a shock here in 2007. Whilst most people had expected Sinn Fein to win a seat here few had expected McLaughlin to top the poll. To be fair this is because he was Sinn Fein’s sole candidate and the DUP vote, for instance, was split between three candidates. A former Sinn Fein general secretary McLaughlin was a MLA for Foyle between 1998 and 2007. He transferred to this seat in 2007. A prominent MLA who had a strong hand in the formulation of Sinn Fein policy towards the peace process, McLaughlin is often called upon to voice his views on the subject. Assuming McLaughlin runs again he can count himself as safe.

William McCrea (DUP) stood down from the Assembly in 2010 as he had taken a seat at Westminster. While it is not illegal to hold two elected posts in Northern Ireland it is an increasing source of public antipathy and the official DUP position is against ‘dual mandates’. McCrea was replaced as MLA by Paul Girvan. A former mayor of Newtownabbey Girvan was also a MLA for this seat between 2003 and 2007, when he was deselected in acrimonial circumstances. Girvan is said to have been a popular MLA locally during his previous tenure so assuming he runs in May I think he is safe.

David Ford (Alliance) is the leader of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, and the first Northern Irish Justice Minister. As such he is charge of policing in Northern Ireland and is thus one of the most prominent politicians in the entire province. I have read statements to the effect that Ford will not be running here in May but I have been unable to confirm these statements or their exact nature (if any readers know a news article or such I would really appreciate it). Assuming he stands, such a well known politician is safe, but if he doesn’t the seat is actually fairly weak. While Ford was the third MLA elected his 13.1% of the vote is the entirety of the cross-community vote in the constituency. A confusing one then and one I’ll come back to when the Alliance finalises its candidate list.

David Burnside (UUP) stood down as a MLA in 2009, apparently to concentrate on his business interests. He was replaced as MLA by Danny Kinahan, the second placed UUP candidate from 2007. Kinahan is a cousin of ‘Lady in Red’ singer Chris de Burgh. I will attempt to try not to hold this against him. Kinahan is on the more liberal ‘civic unionist’ wing of the party, as opposed to Burnside’s more hardline views. This may make him less attractive to DUP voters for second preferences and such hardline voters may prefer to vote DUP. In combination with Burnside the UUP are running Adrian Watson, a popular former Mayor of Antrim, who was originally going to be the Conservative and Unionist candidate for the seat in 2010 until he was vetoed by Conservative Central Office in favour of Kinahan, as Watson had made comments to the effect that he would not allow gays and lesbians to share a bed in his bed and breakfast in 2006. In the end the local constituency association was so in danger of splitting over the perceived interference of CCHQ that UUP leader Reg Empey ran here, uniting the divided association.

With Kinahan having only been a co-opted MLA for a year, and thereby having little time to establish himself there is a chance for an interesting intra-party battle between the ‘civic unionist’ Kinahan, and the more traditionalist Watson. Essentially the greatest danger to Kinahan is that he could be unseated by a member of his party. That said, there is clearly enough UUP support in the seat to ensure at least one seat for the UUP (and possibly enough for a second – more on that later).

Trevor Clarke (DUP) is the second DUP MLA for the constituency. Clarke’s website claims he has one of the best attendance records in the constituency. A member of the Orange Order, and several other groups, Clarke is clearly an active MLA which will likely work in his favour. All things considered there is a great well of DUP support in this seat and Clarke can likely count himself as safe, assuming no slip-ups.

Thomas Burns (SDLP) is the final SDLP candidate. Burns actually got less first preference votes than the third DUP candidate, Mel Lucas, but was propelled to victory by a combination of transfers from his running mate, Noreen McClelland, and transfers from the victorious Mitchel McLaughlin, the sole Sinn Fein candidate. Burns is in a weak position, but the boundary changes to this seat have theoretically made it less Catholic though electoral data from 2010 in actual fact shows a slight growth in the nationalist vote. That said, it is worth remembering that while Burns got only 7.1% personally, the SDLP got 11.1% overall, only 2% behind the Alliance, and only about 3% from having enough votes to win a seat outright. Along with McLaughlin’s strength, which is strong enough to ensure a fair number of transfers, but not strong enough to justify a second Sinn Fein candidate, Burns should not be written off. That said there can be no doubt here: the SDLP is in danger of losing its seat.

The Challengers

The biggest question in South Antrim, for me, is whether David Ford runs for the Alliance. If he does, he can probably count himself as safe, but if he does not then this leaves open an Alliance seat. Also in danger is Thomas Burns’s seat. The challengers to these seats are, in my opinion, the DUP and the UUP. DUP candidate Mel Lucas actually won more votes than Thomas Burns here in 2007, whereas together the failed UUP candidates of Kinahan (now the MLA of course) and Stephen Nicholl add up to 8.7% of the vote. However STV being what it is, the exact ramifications of the above numbers are rather complex.

So who is more likely to gain a seat? Well on the one hand, Mel Lucas did very well in 2007, and the UUP are on the downslide. On the other hand there is a fair reservoir of UUP support here. The UUP held up well in May 2010 (though they WERE running their leader), and there is potential for an interesting intra-party battle in the UUP which may draw attention to the candidates. Also, the two candidates come from different wings of the party and therefore may appeal to different constituencies of voters. Kinahan may draw voters away from the Alliance whereas Watson may draw more voters away from the DUP, in doing so expanding the UUP base of support in the constituency and therefore both may be elected. If the TUV takes a fair amount of DUP voters a DUP candidate may be knocked out before the UUP as well.

That said don’t count out the DUP here either. After an extraordinary set of mid-term woes the party has bounced back in surprising style and appears to have rebounded. The DUP *could* take either seat. Alternatively, there is a slim possibility that both these seats could fall to the DUP AND the UUP. However my suspicion is that if either the Alliance or the SDLP is eliminated a substantial transfer of votes will take place from one to the other. The only exception to this is if Kinahan is still in the running when the Alliance candidate is eliminated. In fact, therefore, the final seat could come to an Alliance vs. SDLP showdown. Who would win that is anybody’s guess, and will likely come down to the individual candidates.

That's your lot with the heavily unionist and protestant land of Antrim. Next time on Northern Ireland Votes we'll be standing on the four Belfast seats.