Friday 18 February 2011

Lib Dems score only by-election gain of the night

In a somewhat surprising result last night the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Shropshire. This is in contrast to recent contests with the Tories where they have been uncompetitive as they struggle to stem the loss of votes to Labour. It's not all bad news for the Tories though as they won a vital seat in South Cambridgeshire and held off Labour in Brent.

It seems natural to start with the only gain of the night, which took place in Quarry & Coton Hill, Shropshire UA. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Maxwell Winchester, who is moving back to his county of birth - Australia. In 2009 the Liberal Democrat candidate Andrew Bannerman lost by just 73 votes but last night he won the race to replace Winchester. Bannerman managed an 8.8% swing to comfortably gain the seat for his party, despite Labour polling 23.1% from nowhere.

As good Labour results have usually come at the expense of the Lib Dems it's fair to say something is probably afoot locally. A quick flick through the Shropshire Star reveals a number of reports on Council spending cuts (H/T LordBonkers), and as the Council is dominated by the Conservatives they were in line to take the heat in this by-election. Of course, as part of the national coalition the Lib Dems are by no means blameless, but as Labour did not stand in the ward two years ago the yellows were best placed to capitalise on any local anger. The Tories are still very much in control of Shropshire with full Council elections not due until 2013.

Shropshire Council

CON

LD

LAB

IND

52

-1

13

+1

7

-

2

-

Quarry & Coton Hill

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Andrew Bannerman (E)

356

41.8%

+5.7%

Judie McCoy

269

31.6%

-12.0%

John Lewis

197

23.1%

+23.1%

James Gollins

30

3.5%

-2.3%

The Conservatives did a better job defending the Bourn ward on the South Cambridgeshire District Council against the Liberal Democrats. The by-election was called because the incumbent Councillor David Morgan resigned to take a new job overseas. Although the Lib Dems required a smaller swing to take this than they did in Shropshire the Tories easily held the seat. It would seem that Clayton Hudson is a popular local figure and he increased his party's share of the vote by almost 11% from last May. The Liberal Democrats suffered a more typical drop in vote share, with their support heading to both Labour and the Tories. This result was important locally as this vacancy had wiped out the Conservative's majority on the South Cambridgeshire Council. Hudson's arrival will give them a one seat cushion until what are sure to be keenly fought partial elections in May.

South Cambrideshire District Council

CON

LD

IG

LAB

IND

29

-

20

-

6

-

1

-

1

-

Bourn (South Cambridgeshire)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Clayton Hudson (E)

874

56.2%

+10.9%

Nick Glynn

345

22.2%

-16.9%

Gavin Clayton

337

21.7%

+10.2%

Finally, the Conservatives successfully held off Labour to defend the Kenton ward in the London Borough of Brent. The vacancy arose due to the death of Conservative Councillor Arthur Steel, who was comfortably re-elected last May along with his two running mates. Labour required a 6% swing to take the seat which appeared well within their reach considering their recent results. It was not to be though as Suresh Kansagra limited the swing against the Tories to just 2.6% to win the seat by a 153 vote margin. This was despite the presence of a former Conservative Councillor standing as an Independent and the Liberal Democrats losing half their vote share. The smaller swing to Labour in this by-election is probably down to their strong performance in this ward last May and that they currently control Brent with a large majority. That said, this used to be a safe ward for the Tories so the fact this has become marginal should be pleasing for Labour.

Kenton (Brent)

By-Election Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-

Suresh Kansagra (E)

1063

44.1%

-2.2%

Ellie Southwood

907

37.7%

+3.0%

Robert Dunwell

185

7.7%

+7.7%

Chunilal Chavada

179

7.4%

-7.0%

Alan Mathison

75

3.1%

-1.5%

2 comments:

  1. If Clayton Hudson is a well-known local character in the ward, is it too uncharitable to the voters and also to the local Labour party to suggest that some of the swing might be due to the Labour candidate having "CLAYTON" prominently printed next to his check-box and this might have confused a few people?

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  2. Very... Nicee... Blog.. I really appreciate it... Thanks..:-)

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