Lib Dems score only by-election gain of the night

In a somewhat surprising result last night the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Shropshire. This is in contrast to recent contests with the Tories where they have been uncompetitive as they struggle to stem the loss of votes to Labour. It's not all bad news for the Tories though as they won a vital seat in South Cambridgeshire and held off Labour in Brent.

It seems natural to start with the only gain of the night, which took place in Quarry & Coton Hill, Shropshire UA. The vacancy arose following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Maxwell Winchester, who is moving back to his county of birth - Australia. In 2009 the Liberal Democrat candidate Andrew Bannerman lost by just 73 votes but last night he won the race to replace Winchester. Bannerman managed an 8.8% swing to comfortably gain the seat for his party, despite Labour polling 23.1% from nowhere.

As good Labour results have usually come at the expense of the Lib Dems it's fair to say something is probably afoot locally. A quick flick through the Shropshire Star reveals a number of reports on Council spending cuts (H/T LordBonkers), and as the Council is dominated by the Conservatives they were in line to take the heat in this by-election. Of course, as part of the national coalition the Lib Dems are by no means blameless, but as Labour did not stand in the ward two years ago the yellows were best placed to capitalise on any local anger. The Tories are still very much in control of Shropshire with full Council elections not due until 2013.

Shropshire Council
CON		LD			LAB			IND
52	-1	13	+1		7	-		2		-
Quarry & Coton Hill
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Andrew Bannerman (E)				356			41.8%		+5.7%
Judie McCoy				269			31.6%		-12.0%
John Lewis				197			23.1%		+23.1%
James Gollins				30			3.5%		-2.3%

The Conservatives did a better job defending the Bourn ward on the South Cambridgeshire District Council against the Liberal Democrats. The by-election was called because the incumbent Councillor David Morgan resigned to take a new job overseas. Although the Lib Dems required a smaller swing to take this than they did in Shropshire the Tories easily held the seat. It would seem that Clayton Hudson is a popular local figure and he increased his party's share of the vote by almost 11% from last May. The Liberal Democrats suffered a more typical drop in vote share, with their support heading to both Labour and the Tories. This result was important locally as this vacancy had wiped out the Conservative's majority on the South Cambridgeshire Council. Hudson's arrival will give them a one seat cushion until what are sure to be keenly fought partial elections in May.

South Cambrideshire District Council
CON		LD		IG			LAB			IND
29	-	20	-	6		-	1		-	1		-
Bourn (South Cambridgeshire)
By-Election Candidate					Votes			Vote %			+/-
Clayton Hudson (E)					874			56.2%			+10.9%
Nick Glynn					345			22.2%			-16.9%
Gavin Clayton					337			21.7%			+10.2%

Finally, the Conservatives successfully held off Labour to defend the Kenton ward in the London Borough of Brent. The vacancy arose due to the death of Conservative Councillor Arthur Steel, who was comfortably re-elected last May along with his two running mates. Labour required a 6% swing to take the seat which appeared well within their reach considering their recent results. It was not to be though as Suresh Kansagra limited the swing against the Tories to just 2.6% to win the seat by a 153 vote margin. This was despite the presence of a former Conservative Councillor standing as an Independent and the Liberal Democrats losing half their vote share. The smaller swing to Labour in this by-election is probably down to their strong performance in this ward last May and that they currently control Brent with a large majority. That said, this used to be a safe ward for the Tories so the fact this has become marginal should be pleasing for Labour.

Kenton (Brent)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-
Suresh Kansagra (E)	1063	44.1%	-2.2%
Ellie Southwood	907	37.7%	+3.0%
Robert Dunwell	185	7.7%	+7.7%
Chunilal Chavada	179	7.4%	-7.0%
Alan Mathison	75	3.1%	-1.5%