Thursday 30 September 2010

By-Election Preview (30th September)

We have another fairly busy week for by-elections with five top-tier vacancies and one District to be filled today. The closest contest on paper is taking place in Battle Hill, North Tyneside. Labour Councillor Mary Glindon was elected as the new MP for North Tyneside in May and she has since resigned from her Council seat. This has left a competitive ward open and Labour will be wary of the threat from the Liberal Democrats. Glindon won the ward in 2007 by just 11 votes and although Labour carried Battle Hill in May by a greater margin the Lib Dems won here in 2006 and 2008. Although the political climate at the time was a lot more favourable for the yellows they still have a good chance of gaining this seat today. Their candidate, Dorothy Bradley, lost her seat in 2010 but considering the advantage Labour enjoys with General Election turnouts she wasn't too far off. Bradley is likely to have a personal vote to draw on and so with a low turnout almost guaranteed Labour will have to work hard to prevent a loss during the week of their conference.

The vacancy in Tameside (Greater Manchester) is another seat where Labour will have to be wary. The by-election in the Longdendale has been trigged following the death of Cllr. Roy Oldham, who led the Council until May this year. Oldham was Labour's leader on the Council for thirty years and had been a Councillor for almost half a century, which makes his relatively small margin of victory this year seem fairly odd. As Labour hold the other two seats in this multi-member ward the loss of Oldham's personal vote shouldn't be too much of a problem but the Conservatives may feel they have an outside chance here. Labour enjoy a very large majority on Tameside Council so the political balance won't be affected whatever the result.

Moving to Wales now where voters in Gwynedd will be heading to the polling stations for the second time since the General Election. In July, Llais Gwynedd (The Voice of Gwynedd) successfully defended a seat on the Council despite the vacancy arising because the sitting Councillor resigned in disgrace. A week after that by-election victory Dafydd Lloyd Hughes resigned for undisclosed 'personal reasons' resulting in today's by-election in the Bowydd & Rhiw Ward. In a similar situation to the last by-election this will be a straight fight between Llais Gwynedd and Plaid Cymru in a ward where another party put up a candidate in the last full Council elections. The local party managed just managed to hold off Plaid earlier in the summer, and they almost secured 50% of the vote in this ward in 2007, so they look very capable of hanging on here. Incidentally, there will be yet another by-election in Gwynedd next week following the death of an Independent Councillor. Plaid run the Council as a minority but if they won gained both seats they would hold 37 of the 75 seats. This is certainly the most important by-election today in terms of local impact.

Elsewhere, Labour are defending the Brandon ward on the Durham County Council. This is taking place following the death of Cllr. Ronnie Rodgers and it's another Council with a second by-election taking place in the near future. Labour will be defending another seat in Durham in two weeks time and as they currently hold a slim majority on the Council they could do with a couple of holds. Back over to the North West again and the Conservatives are defending the Alderley ward on the Cheshire East Unitary Authority. This by-election is taking place following the death of Cllr. Liz Gilliland. The Tories have a large majority on the Council and a safe margin in the ward.

Finally, the District by-election in Sedgemoor (Somerset) could be a close battle between Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories were only 18 votes away from a gain in 2007 and they'll be looking to add to their already comfortable majority on the Council. However, Labour have been getting the better of the Conservatives in recent contests across the country so a it will be a tough ask. As usual, a run down of all the results will be up at the end of the week.

Battle Hill (North Tyneside)

 

Longdendale (Tameside)

Candidate

2007

2010

 

Candidate

2010

Lesley Spillard (LAB)

46%

46.8%

 

Janet Cooper (LAB)

43.7%

Dorothy Bradley (LD)

45.6%

41.4%

 

Rob Adlard (CON)

38%

N/C (BNP)

8.4%

-

 

Kevin Misell (UKIP)

9.3%

Wendy Morton (CON)

-

11.8%

 

Melanie Roberts (GRN)

8.9%

Dan Ellis (IND)

-

-

 

Anthony Jones (BNP)

-

      

Bowydd & Rhiw (Gwynedd)

  

Brandon (Durham)

Candidate

2008

  

Candidate

2008

Donna Morgan (LG)

48.4%

  

John Turnbull (LAB)

50.8%

Paul Thomas (PC)

35%

  

Maureen Smith (LD)

32.2%

N/C (GRN)

16.6%

  

Marc Krajewski (CON)

8.8%

    

N/C (BNP)

8.2%

Alderley (Cheshire E)

    

Candidate

2008

    

Matthew Lloyd (CON)

51.1%

    

Oliver Romain (LD)

23.6%

    

N/C (IND)

15%

    

N/C (LAB)

10.4%

    

Monday 27 September 2010

By-Election Watch (27/09/10)

Here's this weeks changes to the by-election list. The main page has been updated. This week's preview will hopefully be up on Wednesday. Tom's away for a few days though so it might end up being Thursday morning.

Council

Type

Ward

Party

Reason

Date

Camden

London

Kentish Town

Labour

Death

28th Oct

South Lanarkshire

Scotland

East Kilbride West

Labour

MP

28th Oct

Manchester

Metro.

Hulme

Labour

Arrested

4th Nov

  

  

  

  

  

  

Conwy

Wales

Eglysbach

Plaid Cymru

Resigned

TBA

Isle of Wight

Unitary

Chale, Niton & Whitwell

Conservative

Work

TBA

Swindon

Unitary

Moredon

Conservative

Resigned

TBA

Sunday 26 September 2010

*New* Page: Labour Leadership Result

We've got a new page on the top bar with the Labour Leadership result. Our Labour Leadership Correspondent (Chris!) has been quite busy recently but he'll be providing some analysis on Ed Miliband's victory during this week. This is quite useful as Tom is on holiday for the next few days, and so he'll be looking after the site. Looking further forward we'll be having a look at the UKIP Leadership election, which finishes on 5th November (I don't envisage fireworks!), and we've begun our work for next year's devolved assembly elections. Of course, the by-election coverage will continue as usual, although Tom's break means that this week's are already scheduled.

Friday 24 September 2010

Tories and Lib Dems swap seats as Labour continue to rise

Yesterday's by-elections produced a cosy seat swap for the two national coalition parties. The Liberal Democrats gained a seat in Teignbridge from the Conservatives but lost one in North East Derbyshire. As for the two Gateshead vacancies I previewed, Labour easily held both seats with a swing towards them.

The manner in which Labour cruised to victory in Gateshead (Tyne & Wear) is one we are becoming used to seeing since the General Election. Since May they have been capitalising on the fact they are the only main political party not in Government. Their terrible performance in the last few rounds of local elections has also helped as the party recovers ground on the other parties. Last night they were on the defensive in the North East following the election of Cllr. Ian Mears to Parliament and the death of Cllr. Frank Donovan. This had left the wards of Saltwell and Lobley Hill & Bensham vacant, with the latter the most at risk of the two. In the end there was no need to worry as Labour safely held both seats, with swings towards them and away from both the Tories and the Lib Dems. The balance of power on Gateshead Council was not under threat in these elections as Labour enjoy a large majority. But as Chris Mead of The Independent notes, these results will not make comfortable reading for Liberal Democrats in Newcastle ahead of their defence of the City Council next May.

Gateshead Borough Council

LAB

LD

LIB

45

-

20

-

1

-

Lobley Hill & Bensham

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

Eileen McMaster (E)

1120

69.3%

+15.2

Michael Ruddy

298

18.4%

-5

Derrick Robson

101

6.25%

-0.7

Val Bond

97

6%

-6.5

Saltwell

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

Denise Robson (E)

793

68.8%

+10.4

Laura Turner

196

17%

-5.2

Alan Bond

86

7.5%

-5.9

Janet Robson

77

6.7%

+0.7

Although it was business as usual the two top-tier by-elections the District battles threw up some interesting results. The Wellington ward on the Rushmoor (Hampshire) was on paper the most likely to change hands. The Conservatives were defending the seat but both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have challenged them in recent years. Last night's result was a hold for the Tories but the vote totals make interesting reading. The Conservatives vote dropped by over 6% which seemed to transfer to UKIP, who didn't stand earlier this year. But the Liberal Democrats failed to take advantage as they lost support to Labour. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a frequent occurrence, and so a pattern of Labour voters becoming less inclined to tactically vote for the Lib Dems can be established.

The Liberal Democrats also suffered badly in Gosforth Valley, North East Derbyshire District Council where they were pushed to third in a seat they were defending. The Conservatives gained the seat and Labour pipped the Lib Dems into second with a 13% increase in their vote share. Of course, the low turnout makes this result seem more extreme than it actually was. Labour's vote increased by just 27 votes on their top candidate in 2007 and the Tories had 100 actual votes less than when the came second three years ago. The big movement was in the Lib Dem vote total as they were only able to persuade a third of their 2007 voters to back them again. Quite an enthusiasm gap… [I know, I'm watching too much mid-term coverage!]

Last night wasn't all bad news for the Liberal Democrats as they managed a gain on Teignbridge District Council (Devon). They currently run the Council, with help from some Independents, and this gain from the Tories has left them as the largest party going into next years full Council elections. It this case it seems the personal vote for the previous Councillor was quite large and so the absence of his name on the ballot has cost them the seat. In the final by-election last night the Tories comfortably held Heathfield North & Central on the Wealden District Council (East Sussex).

There is also a by-election in Scarborough which took place today. I'll just update this post when the result is known.

Thursday 23 September 2010

By-Election Preview (23rd/24th September)

There are only two top tier by-elections taking place this week but there are a four District Council vacancies to be filled on Thursday and a further one on Friday (yep…that's not a misprint!). Unfortunately not many appear to be competitive but there's nothing like a Council by-election to produce a big swing. Both top tier elections are taking place in the Metropolitan Borough of Gateshead (Tyne & Wear) and we'll begin with them.

The two wards up for grabs in Gateshead are both held by Labour. Saltwell has been vacated by Ian Mears as he was elected as the new MP for Gateshead in May. He comfortably won this ward seat in 2008, and Labour holds all three seats, so it's unlikely they'll fail to win on Thursday. The other in Lobley Hill & Bensham is a lot more competitive. The vacancy in this ward has arisen due to the death of Cllr. Frank Donovan. He narrowly won in 2007, fighting off a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats. In fact, although Labour hold all three seats in this ward, the Lib Dems were very close in 2006 and 2008 as well. Only this May did the General Election turnout give Labour a comfortably victory, but they won't have that advantage this week. Of course, the political climate is a little different now from the last few elections, evidenced by the defection of Cllr. Yvonne McNicol from LD to LAB yesterday. Labour are likely to hold this but they can't afford to be complacent. Either way, the Council is comfortably controlled by Labour and a loss would barely dent their majority.

Gateshead

Lobley Hill & Bensham

  

Saltwell

Candidate

2007

2010

  

Candidate

2008

2010

Eileen McMaster (LAB)

44.1%

54.1%

  

Denise Robson (LAB)

62.3%

58.4%

Michael Ruddy (LD)

42.2%

23.4%

  

Laura Turner (LD)

14.4%

22.2%

Derrick Robson (BNP)

9.4%

7%

  

Alan Bond (CON)

12.8%

13.4%

Val Bond (CON)

4.4%

12.5%

  

Janet Robson (BNP)

10.5%

6%

N/C (GRN)

-

2.9%

  

  

  

  

Elsewhere the Conservatives are defending the closest of the District by-election contests. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have come fairly close to defeating the Conservatives in the Wellington ward of Rushmoor Borough Council (Hampshire). The Tories may well benefit from this split in the opposition vote. Their majority on the Rushmoor Council is large enough to withstand a loss anyway. The Liberal Democrats are defending Gosforth Valley, North East Derbyshire DC on Thursday and Eastfield, Scarborough BC (North Yorkshire) on Friday. They should hold on to both seats. Equally, the two other District seats the Conservatives are defending are also in safe wards. They are in Ipplepen, Teignbridge DC (Devon) and Heathfield North and Central, Wealden DC (East Sussex). In both cases their only opposition is provided by the Lib Dems.

Monday 20 September 2010

By-Election Watch (20/09/10)

Here's this weeks changes to the by-election list. The main page has been updated. They'll be preview of the two vacancies in Gateshead on Wednesday, as well as a look at a few of the District by-elections taking place on Thursday (and Friday!?).

Council

Type

Ward

Party

Reason

Date

Neath Port Talbot

Wales

Neath North

Labour

Death

14th Oct

York

Unitary

Hull Road

Labour

Illness

14th Oct

Hampshire

County

Andover South

Conservative

Death

21st Oct

Medway

Unitary

River

Conservative

Resigned

21st Oct

Swansea

Wales

Newton

Lib Dem

Personal

21st Oct

  

  

  

  

  

  

Manchester

Metro.

Hulme

Labour

Arrested

TBA

Moray

Scotland

Forres

Conservative

Health

TBA

Poole

Unitary

Poole Town

Conservative

Death

TBA

Saturday 18 September 2010

Labour Shade a Mixed Night

his week's by-elections produced some intriguing results. Although Labour failed to gain what appeared to be their easiest target in Hackney, they produced a shock in Nottinghamshire to take a County and a District seat off the Conservatives. The Tories also lost a seat to the Liberal Democrats on the Kensington & Chelsea Council in the wake of a scandal. However, the Lib Dems did not have a great night overall as they saw their vote collapse in wards in which they were not competitive.

I'll start in Hackney where the New River ward was up for election following the death of Conservative Cllr. Maureen Middleton. In May this ward elected two Labour Councillors ahead of Middleton and so the Conservative looked like they would struggle to hold here. As it was their candidate Benzion Papier easily won the seat, with a big swing towards the Tories. Labour's vote stood still as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens collapsed. Without any local knowledge this all seems a bit strange. However, the Labour blogger Luke Akehurst also happens to be the election agent for their campaign. He explains that the ward is "polarised between the mainly Labour-voting Woodberry Down Estate (near Manor House tube) and Tory voting Chassidic Jewish areas of Stamford Hill." Given the difference in turnout between the General Election and a September by-election then it seems getting their vote out was the key to the Conservative's success. Labour still dominate the Council with 50 of the 57 seats though.

There was much better news for Labour in the East Midlands though as they gained two seats from the Conservative in Worksop. Both by-elections were taking place following the death of Conservative Cllr. Michael Bennett, who held Worksop West on the Nottinghamshire County Council and Worksop South on the Bassetlaw District Council. They were both won on impressive swings and it leaves the two Councils extremely tight. On the County Council the Conservatives now have a majority of just three but in Bassetlaw this loss has left the Council virtually hung. The Tories hold 24 of the 48 seats with one vacancy in a safe Labour ward.

The Conservatives were also hit hard in Kensington and Chelsea but this is much more likely to be the result of local factors. The by-elections for the Cremone and Earls Court wards were taking place because two Conservative Councillors, Barry Phelps and Mark Daley, resigned in disgrace. They were engulfed in a scandal involving suspect images being send over the Council's email system and it would seem the voters in this London Borough were not impressed. Labour came within 19 votes of a sensational gain in Cremone whilst Linda Wade went one better for the Liberal Democrats and took Earls Court. The Tories still enjoy a big majority on the Council, and the Earls Court result means the Lib Dems now have three Councillors here.

Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats managed to hold East Chesterton on the Cambridgeshire County Council. The vacancy arose because the sitting Cllr. Siep Wijsenbeek moved to France and Ian Manning is the new Lib Dem Councillor for this ward. In Knowsley (Merseyside) Labour dished out the expected hammering in the Park ward, which was vacant due to the resignation of Cllr. Margaret Dobbie for personal reasons. Tony Brennan managed 86% of the vote to maintain his party's huge majority.

Elsewhere the Conservatives held Stanwix Urban on the Carlisle City Council and the Liberal Democrats held Cadley on the Preston City Council. The Lib Dems also held Northcourt on the Abingdon Town Council and Pinewood on the Whitehill Town Council.

Hackney Borough Council

 

Nottinghamshire County Council

LAB

CON

LD

 

CON

LAB

LD

MIF

IND

UKIP

SAI

50

-

4

-

3

-

 

35

-1

15

+1

9

-

4

-

2

-

1

-

1

-

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

 

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

Benzion Papier (E)

1567

57.2%

+23.6

 

Kevin Greaves (E)

1457

61.5%

+28.6

Jonathan Burke

1007

36.8%

-0.7

 

Alec Thorpe

755

31.9%

-18.9

Stuart Coggins

77

2.8%

-10.4

 

Leon Duveen

88

3.7%

-12.6

Benjamin Mathis

61

2.2%

-13.5

 

Ron Dawes

56

2.4%

+2.4

Darren Fraser

26

0.9%

0.9

 

Terry Coleman

13

0.5%

+0.5


 

Kensington & Chelsea Borough Council

 

Cambridgeshire County Council

CON

LAB

LD

 

CON

LD

LAB

GRN

UKIP

42

-1

9

-

3

+1

 

42

-

23

-

2

-

1

-

1

-

Cremone

 

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

 

Ian Manning (E)

832

40.9%

+5.1

Gerard Hargreaves (E)

602

41.2%

-9

 

Gerri Bird

663

32.6%

+17.6

Mabel McKeown

583

39.9%

+16.8

 

Matthew Bradney

334

16.4%

-8.4

Peter Kosta

180

12.3%

-9.6

 

Peter Pope

117

5.7%

-9

Julia Stephenson

51

3.5%

+3.5

 

Anna Gordon

53

2.6%

+2.6

David Coburn

46

3.1%

-1.8

 

Peter Burkinshaw

37

1.8%

-7.9

  

  

  

  

     

Earls Court

 

Knowsley Borough Council

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

 

LAB

LD

Linda Wade (E)

703

44.8%

+24.3

 

55

-

8

-

Malcolm Spalding

594

37.8%

-7.1

 

Candidate

Votes

Vote %

+/-%

Joel Bishop

151

9.6%

-9.2

 

Tony Brennan (E)

650

86%

+6.1

Elizabeth Arbuthnot

49

3.1%

-0.8

 

John White

70

9.3%

-10.8

Jack Bovill

29

1.8%

 

Gary Robertson

36

4.8%

+4.8

Michael Enright

26

1.7%

-8.3

     

Antony Little

18

1.1%

+1.1