This Thursday voters in Exeter and Norwich will head to their polling stations to elect 13 Councillors in each city. These elections were initially due to take place in May but they were postponed while the decision on whether the Councils would be granted Unitary status being taken. The move to split from their respective County Councils had cross party support within each city, and cross party opposition from other local representatives. Although the plans were initially given the go ahead in February the bill struggled through Parliament and was eventually passed in late March. However, with the Conservatives pledging to overturn the decision, and both Devon and Norfolk County Councils challenging the plan in the High Court, it looked unlikely that either city would actually become a Unitary Authority.
One of the first moves made by the incoming coalition Government was to scrap the proposed Unitary Authorities. A month later the High Court deemed the initial decision unlawful and shortly after it ruled that the Councillors due for election in May had to stand down and face the voters. This very messy process will come to something of a conclusion on Thursday, although calls from the two cities to change their local Government structure are unlikely to disappear. It's hard to tell whether Labour, who essentially botched the entire process, or the Conservatives, who were against the plan from the start, will suffer more at the ballot box. Of course, this is the first major electoral test for the coalition as well, and so the Liberal Democrats will be under pressure too.
What it important to point out early is that neither Council will emerge from these elections with any one party in control, but a good performance this week could lead to further gains next May. Recent election results for each Council can be found on the top bar. Thursday is set to be interesting night so here's a quick look at some of the key wards in both cities.
The top line of the tables' show the current breakdown and the bottom line would be the result if all wards are won by the defending party.
Exeter City Council | |||
LD | LAB | CON | LIB |
9 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
12 | 13 | 11 | 4 |
In Exeter it's hard to see a change from NOC anytime soon. Labour are defending 5 seats, and four of them are fairly safe. They enjoy 10% plus majorities in Mincinlake, Newtown and Priory and the Conservatives' strong performance in Whipton Barton in 2008 is likely to be a high water mark. So with Labour likely to come out of this round of elections with 12 of the 40 seats it will be difficult for any other party to become the largest group, let alone command a majority on its own. The final seat Labour are defending is Exwick and that may well be lost to the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems have won the last two elections in this ward and so a third is very much on the cards. However, of the three seats the Lib Dems are defending two could fall to the Tories. St Davids will almost certainly be a Lib Dem Hold, but Duryard was won by the Conservatives in 2008 to split the ward. The Tories will also be looking to pick up Alphington on a swing of 2% from 2008, but the absence of a Labour candidate may well help the Liberal Democrats. As for the Conservatives they should defend Pinhoe, Polsloe and Topsham with ease, which would give them 10 seats. However, they only just held off the Labour challenge in Cowick in 2007 so this ward is sure to be a key marginal. Finally, the Liberal Party look pretty safe in Heavitree. It seems entirely conceivable that this round of elections could result in a 12/12/12/4 split, although Labour have a slightly better chance of getting a seat or two clear.
Norwich City Council | |||
LAB | GRN | LD | CON |
9 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
15 | 13 | 6 | 5 |
In Norwich the fight for control is a two horse race between Labour and the Greens. It's the latter who are in the ascendancy as they have cemented themselves in four wards during the last decade. Mancroft, Nelson, Town Close and Wensum are all safe Green wards and they appear to be targeting the Liberal Democrats' Thorpe Hamlet ward to add to that list. They also made headway in the University ward in 2008 and if they manage to snatch that from Labour then a Green controlled Council would be a very real possibility. Labour have more pressing threats in Catton Grove and Lakenham, where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats respectively have gained seats from them in recent elections. Labour should be able to hold Corme, Mile Cross and Sewell though, which would leave them with a minimum of 12 Councillors. There's an outside change they'll be able to gain Bowthorpe from the Conservatives, having been close in 2006 and 2007, but the trend in Norwich is one of decline for Labour in recent years. The final ward is Eaton where the Liberal Democrats enjoy a comfortable 10% majority over the Conservatives.
The prospect of the Greens becoming the largest group should be the focus of the Norwich election, but the result in Lakenham will be interesting from a national perspective. This ward, and Exwick in Exeter, will be key indicators as to whether forming this national coalition will lead to losses in LibDem/Labour margianals. Duryard (Exeter), Alphington (Exeter) and Eaton (Norwich) are the wards to watch for evidence of pro-Lib Dem tactical voting disappearing to the Tories advantage. I'll be updating the 'Exeter and Norwich' page on the night as the results come through.
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