By-Election Preview (23rd/24th September)

There are only two top tier by-elections taking place this week but there are a four District Council vacancies to be filled on Thursday and a further one on Friday (yep…that's not a misprint!). Unfortunately not many appear to be competitive but there's nothing like a Council by-election to produce a big swing. Both top tier elections are taking place in the Metropolitan Borough of Gateshead (Tyne & Wear) and we'll begin with them.

The two wards up for grabs in Gateshead are both held by Labour. Saltwell has been vacated by Ian Mears as he was elected as the new MP for Gateshead in May. He comfortably won this ward seat in 2008, and Labour holds all three seats, so it's unlikely they'll fail to win on Thursday. The other in Lobley Hill & Bensham is a lot more competitive. The vacancy in this ward has arisen due to the death of Cllr. Frank Donovan. He narrowly won in 2007, fighting off a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats. In fact, although Labour hold all three seats in this ward, the Lib Dems were very close in 2006 and 2008 as well. Only this May did the General Election turnout give Labour a comfortably victory, but they won't have that advantage this week. Of course, the political climate is a little different now from the last few elections, evidenced by the defection of Cllr. Yvonne McNicol from LD to LAB yesterday. Labour are likely to hold this but they can't afford to be complacent. Either way, the Council is comfortably controlled by Labour and a loss would barely dent their majority.

Gateshead
Lobley Hill & Bensham				Saltwell
Candidate	2007	2010		Candidate	2008	2010
Eileen McMaster (LAB)	44.1%	54.1%		Denise Robson (LAB)	62.3%	58.4%
Michael Ruddy (LD)	42.2%	23.4%		Laura Turner (LD)	14.4%	22.2%
Derrick Robson (BNP)	9.4%	7%		Alan Bond (CON)	12.8%	13.4%
Val Bond (CON)	4.4%	12.5%		Janet Robson (BNP)	10.5%	6%
N/C (GRN)	-	2.9%

Elsewhere the Conservatives are defending the closest of the District by-election contests. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have come fairly close to defeating the Conservatives in the Wellington ward of Rushmoor Borough Council (Hampshire). The Tories may well benefit from this split in the opposition vote. Their majority on the Rushmoor Council is large enough to withstand a loss anyway. The Liberal Democrats are defending Gosforth Valley, North East Derbyshire DC on Thursday and Eastfield, Scarborough BC (North Yorkshire) on Friday. They should hold on to both seats. Equally, the two other District seats the Conservatives are defending are also in safe wards. They are in Ipplepen, Teignbridge DC (Devon) and Heathfield North and Central, Wealden DC (East Sussex). In both cases their only opposition is provided by the Lib Dems.