Monday, 28 February 2011

Welsh Assembly Referendum Poll (Feb 28th 2011)

Since the general election in Wales, You Gov has decided to do something rather unprecedented in Welsh politics, a set of monthly opinion polls (to give you an idea of how strange this is between 1999 and 2007 there were only six polls all conducted during the election campaigns themselves) so to get a series is quite a pleasant suprise.

So with three days to go until the referendum on the powers of the Assembly what does the poll have to say:

Yes, I agree that Wales should be given more powers 67%
No, I do not agree that Wales should be given more powers 33%

suggesting a landslide win for the YES campaign on a swing of 17% since the 1997 referendum (and leaving only Monmouthshire voting NO) with 21 local council areas voting YES

As well as asking the main question, they also asked a couple of other questions:

Do you believe the Assembly has performed well since 1999? YES 46% NO 17% Unsure 27%
What would you like to see happen to the Assembly next? 17% get rid it,13% no change, 35% more powers, 11% Scotland please, 6% Independence

The poll was conducted by YouGov on behalf of S4C and was broadcast on Yr Byr Ar Bedwar (The World on Four) at 9.30pm on February 28th 2011.


  1. Though this is clearly good news for the Yes campaign, turnout is going to be critical. All of the evidence suggest that younger voters are most likely to support a Yes vote, and yet they are the least likely to turnout and vote. Its not over until the votes are cast!

  2. The full tables are now up on YouGov's site:

  3. Gwilym ap Llew4 March 2011 at 09:32

    You shouldn't count your chickens! I suspect that neither YES nor NO has won. The clear, convioncing winner is "Leave things as they are".