By-Election Preview (20th October)

Here is Andrew Teale's debut by-election preview.

Bookham South, Mole Valley DC (Surrey); caused by the death of Liberal Democrat Councillor Anne Howarth.

This ward covers Great Bookham, a suburb of Leatherhead on the road to Guildford, and also includes a little countryside to the south including the National Trust regency stately home of Polesden Lacey. The two Bookhams (Great and Little) are on the southern edge of the London Travel to Work Area, and Bookham railway station (which is located outside this ward in Little Bookham) has trains every half hour to Waterloo via Worcester Park, taking about 50 minutes, plus occasional rush-hour trains to London Bridge via West Croydon, taking about an hour.

As that might suggest, the ward is uniformly well-off, with all four of its census areas in the 20% least deprived in England. In Mole Valley district this doesn't translate into a safe Conservative ward, as the district is closely fought between the Lib Dems and the Tories. The Conservatives won this ward in May by 60 votes but this was their first victory since 2006, with the Lib Dems having won the three elections in between by majorities of 150-300.

Mole Valley is currently run by a Conservative/Independent coalition despite the fact the Liberal Democrats held more seats before this vacancy. It's therefore unlikely this result will affect the control of the Council.

Mole Valley District Council
Con	LD	Ind		LIG		Vac
17	17	5		1		1
Bookham South (Mole Valley)
By-Election Candidate			2011		2010		2008
Gail Collett (Con)			46.9%		45.4%		52.2%
Stella Brooks (LD)			44.6%		49.7%		39.1%
Bob Cane (UKIP)			8.5%		4.9%		4.8%
N/C (Lab)			-		-		4.0%

Walton, Stafford BC; caused by the death of a long-serving Conservative Councillor Mike Carey.

This ward is a suburb of the market town of Stone, located to the south of the town centre on the opposite side of the River Trent. The ward is bisected by the dual-carriageway A34, the main road to Stafford seven miles to the south.

Walton ward has some of Stone's most desirable areas, but the politics in 2007 didn't reflect that, the three seats splitting Conservative/Labour/Independent; the Tories did however clean up this May, albeit with just over a third of the vote.

Walton (Stafford)
By-Election Candidate	2011
John O'Leary (Con)	35.1%
Jill Hood (Ind)	25.7%
Lloyd Brown (Lab)	22.8%
N/C (n/d)	16.3%

Eccles, Salford City Council (Metropolitan); caused by the death of Labour Councillor John Cullen.

Swallowed up by Salford in 1974, Eccles is an ex-textile town on the north bank of the Manchester Ship Canal and on the Liverpool and Manchester railway. The ward runs north from the town centre across the M602 arterial motorway to include the Ellesmere Park and Monton areas to the north and north-west. Socially it runs the gamut from some very deprived areas in the town centre and Ellesmere Park to Monton, which is quite a nice area.

Monton and Ellesmere Road is presumably where the Tory vote comes from, and this was a Labour/Tory marginal during the Blair and Brown years, the Conservatives winning in 2007 and 2008, but Labour decisively gained one of the Conservative seats in May.

Eccles (Salford)
By-Election Candidate	2011	2010	2008
Michael Wheeler (Lab)	55.1%	41.4%	37.6%
Nicholas Johnson (Con)	27.9%	30.4%	46.7%
N/C (UKIP)	10.8%	-	-
Valerie Kelly (LD)	6.3%	24.2%	15.7%
N/C (Ind)	-	4.0%	-
Kay Pollitt (BNP)	-	-	-
Alan Valentine (Ind)	-	-	-

Bradwell South and Hopton, Great Yarmouth BC (Norfolk); caused by the death of Conservative Councillor Mike Butcher.

Part of the area that was transferred from Suffolk to Norfolk in 1974, this is one of those badly-drawn wards that has no transport link from end to end. It contains the southern part of the Great Yarmouth suburb of Bradwell, and curves around the built-up area of Gorleston to take in the seaside resort village of Hopton-on-Sea, home to the World Indoor Bowls Championship. Hopton-on-Sea is a fairly comfortable area while Bradwell is more socially mixed.

The ward was safe Conservative during the Noughties, but Labour performed well in Great Yarmouth in May to almost bring the ward into marginal territory.

Bradwell & South Hopton (Great Yarmouth)
By-Election Candidate	2011	2010	2008
Martin Plane (Con)	46.2%	58.9%	48.0%
Hilary Wainwright (Lab)	35.9%	41.1%	19.2%
Colin Aldred (UKIP)	12.7%	-	10.4%
N/C (Grn)	5.1%	-	-
N/C (LD)	-	-	22.5%

Park Hall, Mansfield DC (Nottinghamshire); a long-delayed by-election caused by the death of Labour Councillor Dorothy Beastall the day after she was re-elected in May's local election. The ward is located in the northern Mansfield suburb of Mansfield Woodhouse along Park Hall Road; generally one of the district's more deprived areas.

Mansfield had new wards created for this year's elections and so the only previous result is Beastall's victory in May. There is a strong Independent grouping in Mansfield, who currently hold 11 seats on the Council, and they appear to offer the main challenge to Labour in this by-election.

Park Hall (Mansfield)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Ann Norman (Lab)	57.8%
Linda Davidson (MIF*)	35.3%
Mark Quick (LD)	7.0%
Andrea Hamilton (UKIP)	-
Fraser McFarland (Con)	-

*MIF = Mansfield Independent Forum

Bridge, Nottingham
City Council (Unitary); caused by the death of a Labour Councillor Ian Maclennan.

This ward covers Nottingham's city centre, but most of the population is located south of the centre in the Meadows, a 1970s council estate whose redevelopment grant fell victim to coalition cuts last year. Also here is Meadow Lane, home of the world's oldest professional football team, Notts County.

Bridge ward's two seats split Lib Dem/Labour in 2007 but Labour decisively gained the second seat in May.

Bridge (Nottingham)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Michael Edwards (Lab)	52.0%
Saghir Akhtar (LD)	36.2%
Michael Illyas (Con)	11.8%
David Bishop (BPE*)	-
Andrew Taylor (UKIP)	-

* BPE = Bus-Pass Elvis Party

Ellesmere Port Town, Cheshire West and Chester; caused by the death of the Leader of the Labour Group Derek Bateman.

This industrial town (the local football team is still called Vauxhall Motors) was founded in the nineteenth century on the south bank of the Mersey, and is named after the Ellesmere Canal which reaches the sea here. This ward runs from Ellesmere Port railway station (two trains an hour on the Wirral Line to Liverpool, plus four trains a day to Helsby) south through the town centre and the Wolverham area to Cheshire Oaks, the UK's largest designer outlet and a major local employer. On the opposite side of the M53 motorway is part of the enormous chemical works.

The ward was created in May and the only previous result is the easy Labour win. The predecessor wards on the former Ellesmere Port and Neston council are part of safe Labour Stanlow and Wolverham ward and the whole of normally safe Labour Central ward (although the Tories did get within 6 points of Labour there in 2007).

Ellesmere Port Town (Cheshire & Chester West)
By-Election Candidate	2011
Lynn Clare (Lab)	81.1%
Graham Pritchard (Con)	12.0%
Hilary Chrusciezl (LD)	6.9%
Andrew Roberts (UKIP)	-
Kenny Spain (Soc)	-

Shortlands, Bromley LBC; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor for reasons undisclosed. Despite having a Bromley postal address, this ward is part of the affluent south-east London suburb of Beckenham, which boomed in the late nineteenth century after the coming of the railway; at the junction of the Chatham Main Line and the Catford Loop, Shortlands station is 10 miles from Victoria and has four trains per hour to their via Herne Hill and a further two to Blackfriars via Catford. This creates an affluent commuter ward, five of whose six census areas are in the 20% least deprived in England.

The result of this in Bromley borough is a very safe Conservative ward and they secured almost 60% of the vote here in 2010. The Greens pipped Labour into second, although their strength was probably due to a protest vote more than anything; they didn't stand here in 2006 and polled just 6% in the 2008 GLA elections (Boris polled 68.6%).

Shortlands (Bromley)
By-Election Candidate	2010
David Jefferys (Con)	57.9%
Anna Martin (Grn)	14.5%
Gareth Abbit (Lab)	14.2%
Anuja Prashar (LD)	13.3%
Emmett Jenner (UKIP)	-
Michael Payne (BNP)	-

 

Andrew Teale