By-Election Preview (23rd July – Scottish & Welsh Edition)

In addition to the seven elections taking place in England today there are also contests in Scotland and Wales. They are in Aberdeen, where an Independent who was elected as a Liberal Democrat has resigned, and Carmarthenshire, where an Independent Councillor had his leave of absence withdrawn following a long illness.

We'll start in Scotland where, for the second time in as many months, this week's by-election is coming to us from Aberdeen City Council. This time there's a seat up for grabs in the Airyhall, Broomhill and Garthdee ward after Lib Dem Councillor Scott Cassie was jailed for embezzlement and subsequently resigned. The ward covers the southwestern suburbs of the city which are largely affluent.

The Liberal Democrats are clinging onto the council leadership after the SNP became the city's largest party after last month's by-election gain in the Dyce, Bucksburn & Danestone ward. Like most of the recent by-elections in Scotland, the SNP won with a massive swing in their favour, mostly to the expense of the Lib Dems.

In this case, the SNP should expect to do much the same. Although they start quite far behind the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in this ward, much of that Lib Dem vote could fall to them, especially given the negative circumstances around the previous Lib Dem councillor's departure. Based on recent trends, the Conservatives are also likely to fall back on 2007. They will also be impeded by George Osborne's increased taxes on the oil industry in a ward where the industry will be, either directly or indirectly, a major source of employment.

Labour's candidate may see their vote increase, but this is relatively poor ward for them. The Greens are making their first outing in this ward, as are the National Front who recently stood in all the Aberdeen constituencies and the North East region in the Holyrood election, attracting only a tiny number of votes. After not standing in the last by-election, they seem to have now decided to re-enter the Aberdeen election fray.

There are also two independent candidates. The first, Graham Bennett, is a local community councillor and also contested this ward back in 2007 winning a small but significant number of first preferences that transferred mostly in favour of the Liberal Democrats. The other, Hamish MacKay, also contested the 2007 elections, in the Bridge of Don ward to the other side of the city. KK

Aberdeen City Council
SNP		LD		Lab		Con			Abd Con		Ind		Vac
14	-	13	-	10	-	2		-	2	-	1	-	1	-
Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee
By-Election Candidate							2007
Gregor McAbery (LD)							37.6%
Bill Berry (Con)							27.4%
Gordon Townson (SNP)							17.3%
Angela Taylor (Lab)							12.8%
Graham Bennett (Ind)							4.8%
Richie Brian (Grn)							-
Dave MacDonald (NF)							-
Hamish MacKay (Ind)							-

In Carmathenshire the Llanegwad division is vacant following the disqualification of Independent Councillor Dilwyn Williams. He had been granted a leave of absence after being taken ill but after 18 months the Council has moved to release the seat for a by-election. The Plaid Cymru candidate John Charles came second in 2008 when he stood with No Description, which should help the Nationalists chances of winning the seat. Although Plaid's and Charles' vote combined would not have been enough to deny Williams the former Councillor's personal vote may not necessarily switch to the new Independent candidate.

Plaid Cymru currently hold the most seats in Carmarthenshire but they are shut out of running the Council by an Independent led coalition with Labour and the Liberal Democrats. A win for Plaid would set them up nicely for next year's full Council elections. TH

Carmarthenshire County Council
PC	Ind	Lab	PF	LD	Un	Vac
30	28	11	2	1	1	1
Llanegwad
By-Election Candidate				2008
N/C (Ind)				52.6%
N/C (N-D)				28.1%
John Charles (PC)				19.4%
Clive Pugh (Ind)				-