Sunday, 5 June 2011

The Shrunken House of Commons 2011

No, that's not the title of the latest British horror blockbuster, but the process that was also started when the AV referendum act was passed. The formal process is still ongoing (I, myself have signed up to alerts from the Welsh Boundary Commission) but the informal process has been completed.

Back in December 2010, Lewis Baston who is a director of research at the Electoral Reform Society (and has contributed to several election books) suggested that any plans to reduce to the House to 600 MP's would have serious implications for the coalition. Since then he has been busy doing his sums and has come to the following conclusion

It would be a flaming disaster for the coalition

Based on his estimates, the Conservatives would lose 16 seats (taking them from 307 to 291), the Liberal Democrats would lose 14 seats (57 to 43) and Labour would lose 17 (257 to 240) with the Others on 26 (down from their current 29). This would mean (in a House with a winning line of 301), the Conservatives would be ten short of an overall majority (instead of the current 19) and that the coalition would have a majority of 68 (compared to the 78 they have now). You can read the summary report on the Guardian website or the full report in tomorrow's edition.

I, myself, am hoping to be able to gain access to the % similarilty report that Lewis has done and if so will ask his permission to profile the UK by region and report to this blog, some of the MP's who may have to find new seats (or go to "The Other Place")


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