Nationalists gain in Scotland and Wales

The Scottish and the Welsh Nationalist parties both celebrated gains in local by-elections this week. In Scotland the SNP took another seat off the Liberal Democrats in Aberdeen, which has had a huge impact locally, and Plaid Cymru scored a narrow victory in Carmarthenshire.

We'll start in Scotland where the Aberdeen by-election on Thursday saw the SNP storm to yet another victory. They took the seat after eight rounds of counting, although they also managed to top the first preference vote after an 18.5% swing from the Lib Dems on first preferences. The Tory vote also fell back and perhaps the biggest surprise was a large rise in the Labour share of the first preferences.

The Lib Dems polled very poorly for a ward where two of the three councillors were Lib Dem in 2007 - losing more than half of their votes and falling from first to fourth in terms of first preferences. Their Scottish collapse seems to be continuing unabated to the benefit of the SNP, but has probably been particularly exacerbated in this case by the nature of the previous councillor's resignation in disgraced circumstances. The SNP meanwhile gain their first ever seat in this ward, bringing them closer to the prospect of majority control in Aberdeen after next year's local elections.

The Labour rise was unexpected and must also give them hope of a seat here next year. The very large size of the Lib Dem vote was probably a likely cause - some former Lib Dems would perhaps be more inclined to switch to Labour, even though most of the swing we have seen across the country has been to the SNP, and with so many votes to play for making advances must have been relatively easy. The Conservatives will also be disappointed with their vote falling when they also hold a seat in this ward. This might be down to the effect of Tory plans to increase taxes in the oil sector, which is threatening jobs in areas like this.

Of the other candidates, the Greens came fifth on first preferences but were eliminated in 6th place after a couple of early transfers favoured the independent Bennett. One also has to wonder precisely what was on the mind of the two voters who gave their first preference to the National Front and then their second vote to the Greens!

The SNP now have a two seat lead over the Lib Dems in Aberdeen and shortly after the result was announced the Lib Dem leader of the council announced he would resign to allow the SNP's Callum McCaig to become council leader. Aged 26, McCaig becomes the youngest council leader anywhere in the UK. Although the formation of the new administration has not yet been made clear, McCaig has indicated he would prefer to maintain a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. KK

		Stage
By-Election Candidate	1stP%	1	2			3			4			5			6			7
Gordon Townson	33.2%	1112	3	12%	1115	5	15%	1120	16	15%	1136	25	20%	1161	102	17%	1263	178	22%	1441
Angela Taylor	23.3%	783	0	0%	783	1	3%	784	26	25%	810	19	16%	829	127	21%	956	112	14%	1068
Bill Berry	19.4%	649	3	12%	652	2	6%	654	2	2%	656	20	16%	676	125	21%	801	-801
Gregor McAbery	16.5%	554	4	16%	558	4	12%	562	22	21%	584	15	12%	599	-599
Richie Brian	3.0%	101	2	8%	103	1	3%	104	-104
Graham Bennett	2.9%	98	1	4%	99	10	29%	109	13	13%	122	-122
Hamish MacKay	1.0%	32	2	8%	34	-34
Dave MacDonald	0.7%	25	-25
Non-Transferable			10	40%	10	11	32%	21	25	24%	46	43	35%	89	245	41%	334	511	64%	845

Aberdeen City Council
SNP		LD		Lab		Con			Abd Con			Ind
15	1	13	-1	10	-	2		-	2		-	1		-
Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee
By-Election Candidate							Votes			Vote %			+/-
Gordon Townson (E)							1112			33.2%			+15.8%
Angela Taylor							783			23.3%			+10.5%
Bill Berry							649			19.4%			-8.1%
Gregor McAbery							554			16.5%			-21.1%
Richie Brian							101			3.0%			+3.0%
Graham Bennett							98			2.9%			-1.8%
Hamish MacKay							32			1.0%			+1.0%
Dave MacDonald							25			0.7%			+0.7%

In Llanegwad, Carmarthenshire the poaching of an unaffiliated candidate who had already stood in the division worked for Plaid Cymru as they held off a challenge from an Independent to gain the seat. The by-election was taking place following disqualification of Independent Councillor Dilwyn Williams. He had been granted a leave of absence after being taken ill but after 18 months the Council moved to release the seat.

In 2008 John Charles stood as a candidate with no description and came second behind Williams but he went one better on Thursday. As the Plaid candidate Charles won the seat by 44 votes from the new Independent and he becomes the 31^st member of the Nationalists group on the Council. However, Carmarthenshire is controlled by an Independent led coalition and so Plaid will have to wait until next years full Council elections for their opportunity to win a majority. TH

Carmarthenshire County Council
PC		Ind		Lab			PF		LD			Un
31	+1	28	-1	11	-		2	-	1		-	1	-
Llanegwad
By-Election Candidate						Votes				Vote %
John Charles (E)						494				52.1%
Clive Pugh						455				47.9%