You Win Some, You Lose Some

Labour were involved in both seats that changed hands on Thursday night, tasting victory in one and defeat in the other. They managed a gain a seat in Kent from the Conservatives which will be pleasing for the party. Labour have generally struggled in the South since the General Election despite their resurgence elsewhere in the country. However, they were embarrassed yet again in Tower Hamlets as they lost the seat previously held by the new Mayor of the London Borough. The fallout from the debacle is still fresh in the voters' minds as they elected a Respect Councillor who supported Lutfur Rahman's Mayoral bid. The other four vacancies were all successfully defended by the Conservatives.

I'll start with the shock win for Respect in Tower Hamlets, although the nature of politics in this area of the world means the unexpected is worth expecting. The vacancy for the Spitalfields & Banglatown ward arose following the election of Lutfur Rahman to the new post of Tower Hamlets Mayor in October. Rahman was elected as a Labour Councillor in May but left the party to run as an Independent in the Mayoral election after the NEC removed him as their candidate. I speculated on Wednesday that the Respect candidate Fozal Miah was best placed to harness the anger surrounding the perceived injustice of Labour's Mayoral selection. Miah clearly had a personal vote in the ward and endorsed Rahman so he a fairly good chance despite the decline of Respect as a political party. Miah managed to win the seat on a 10.1% swing but Labour didn't do as badly as it first appears. Labour managed to increase their share of the vote by 2.8% as other parties vote share suffered in this election. The Liberal Democrats crashed to 2.2% from 17.6% in May and the Greens lost over half their vote share as well. The situation is clearly a complicated one and it's possible that the 'Rahman' wing of Labour's vote went to Respect as the reds hovered up votes from the uncompetitive progressive parties. As infuriating as the Tower Hamlets situation must be for Labour it is an extremely localised one, and it's unlikely to damage the party's wider electoral chances.

London Borough of Tower Hamlets
LAB		CON		IND			RSP		LD
32	-1	8	-	8		-	2	+1	1	-
Candidate					Votes		Vote %		+/-
Fozol Miah (E)					666		45.4%		+23.0%
Alim Abdul					553		37.7%		+2.8%
Matt Smith					135		9.2%		-2.8%
Maggie Crosbie					52		3.5%		-6.6%
Ferdy North					33		2.2%		-15.4%
Jewel Choudhury					28		1.9%		-1.1%

In brighter news for Labour their gain in Dover Town, Kent CC represents a mini milestone in their recovery from their General Election defeat earlier in the year. They have generally struggled to regain the ground they lost to the Conservatives in this region so this victory is a welcome boost. The vacancy arose following the death of Conservative Councillor Roger Frayne. The ward is one Labour have held in recent years and it is situated within the boundaries of the Dover Parliamentary seat they lost on a 10.4% swing in May. Before the General Election Labour held 19 seats in the South East but they were almost completely wiped out in the region as they managed to hold just 4. The drubbing the Tories inflicted on Labour included winning every single one of Kent's 17 seats, of which 7 were represented by Labour MPs during the last Parliament. Gordon Cowan's win on Thursday represented a 9.3% swing since the 2009 election and it sends a message that Labour are capable of wining here again. The victory was aided by other parties as the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed and UKIP produced a strong showing. Frayne also held seats on the Dover District Council and the Dover Town Council. The Tories comfortably held the Lydden & Temple Ewell ward on the District Council but they didn't contest the vacancy on the Town Council vacancy. The Dover Alliance, a local group who are against party politics on the Town Council, easily beat the Labour and UKIP candidates to take the Castle ward. They now hold 5 of the 18 seats on the Labour controlled Council, which will hold a full election next May.

Kent County Council
CON		LD		LAB			RA		VAC
71	-1	7	-	3		+1	1	-	2	-
Candidate					Votes		Vote %		+/-
Gordon Cowan (E)					1491		43.7%		+14.3%
Pat Sherratt					1348		39.5%		-4.3%
Vic Matcham					404		11.8%		+11.8%
John Trickey					170		5%		-21.9%

The Conservatives also held another District Council seat in Kent on Thursday. The Sherwood ward on the Tunbridge Wells Borough Council was vacant following the death of the incumbent Councillor. The Tories actually enjoyed a small swing towards from the Liberal Democrats as they comfortably held the seat.

The final two principle authority by-elections were caused by the same resignation in Worcestershire. George Lord represented both the Alvechurch ward on the County Council and Marlbrook on the Bromsgrove District Council. However, Lord stood down following allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female staff and he as since been arrested in connection to the incident. Despite this the Tories held onto both the seats, although they suffered a fairly large swing towards Labour in Marlbrook. They held the County seat quite comfortably, which could well be due to the collapse in UKIP's vote from second place. The anti-EU party dropped to last place as their share of the vote fell 16.7%. It was a bit tougher holding the Bromsgrove seat as Labour enjoyed a 9.7% swing to leave them just 48 votes short of a gain. However, if Labour has held their vote share from 2007 they would have gained the seat. Although the Conservatives were down almost 30% on the last election Labour also lost 8% as a result of 5 new candidates contesting the election. The Tories will be quite relieved Lord's behaviour didn't cost them on either West Midlands Council.

Worcestershire County Council
CON		LD		LAB		ICHC		LIB			IND			RA
41	-	8	-	3	-	2	-	1		-	1	-		1	-
Candidate						Votes			Vote %				+/-
June Griffiths (E)						637			52.6%				+11.7%
Christopher Bloore						189			15.6%				+6.3%
Dee Morton						157			13%				+13%
Howard Allen						83			6.9%				-6.4%
Kenneth Wheatley						79			6.5%				+6.5%
Steven Morson						65			5.4%				-16.7%

Finally, Labour successfully defended a couple of Town Council seats. Millfield, Braunstone TC (Leicestershire) and Low Spennymoor & Tudhoe Grange, Spennymoor TC (Durham) both remain red following Thursday's by-elections.

Ps. Apologies for the belated post. A combination of Graduation, celebrating Graduation and then working all day yesterday left me a bit tired to write the post last night! Next week we have another Tuesday by-election in addition to one on Thursday so there will be regular by-election updates throughout the week.