Local By-Election Summary : June 2011

Votes Cast and Seats Won

	Votes Cast	% Votes Cast	Seats Won	Change
Conservatives	17,662	32.81%	11	-2
Labour	14,882	27.65%	7	+4
Lib Dems	6,590	12.24%	1	-5
Independents	5,559	10.33%	4	Unchanged
SNP	4,448	8.26%	2	+1
Green Party	1,754	3.26%	1	+1
Other Parties	1,404	2.61%	0	Unchanged
Plaid Cymru	749	1.39%	2	+1
UKIP	555	1.03%	0	Unchanged
BNP	225	0.42%	0	Unchanged

GAINS and LOSSES
Conservative GAINS: Chelmsford Central on Essex (from Lib Dem), Deeping St. James on South Kesteven (from Lib Dem), Stanton on Derbyshire Dales (from Ind)
Labour GAINS: Abbey on Dumfries and Galloway (from Con), Crewe South on Cheshire East (from Lib Dem), Westerhope on Newcastle (from Lib Dem), St. Andrews on Great Yarmouth (from Con)
Liberal Democrat GAINS: Cockington with Chelston on Torbay (from Con)
Plaid Cymru GAINS: Arllechwedd on Gwynedd (from Lib Dem), Llanegwad on Carmarthenshire (from Ind)
Independent GAINS: Uwchaled on Conwy (from Plaid), Binstead and Fishbourne on Isle of Wight (from Con)
SNP GAINS: Airyhall, Broomhill and Garthdee on City of Aberdeen (from Lib Dem)
Green GAINS: Hullbridge on Rochford (from Con)

As if we didn’t get a big enough clue from the local elections in May, the 28 local by-elections in June confirmed that being the junior partners in a coalition is not the place to be to make gains in local elections. It is now a straight year that the Liberal Democrats have been placed third in terms of popular vote in local by-elections since the general election (with vote shares ranging from 10% in April 2011 to 23% in January 2011) and in that time have managed to lose 5 seats net (compared to their senior coalition partners losing 25 seats net and Labour making a net gain of 31 seats). And in all those elections since the general election, the national vote share is also clear with the Conservatives and Labour battling for the lead (on 32% each) and the Liberal Democrats (17%) trying hard not to be overtaken by the myriad Others (19%), a reflection of opinion polls since the general election.

Now, of course, it is not possible to make a direct comparison between local elections and general elections, but we can infer a lot. On average (comparing the national projected shares since 2007) the Conservatives are down 7%, Labour are up 8%, the Liberal Democrats are down 8% and the Others are up 6%, but what we can do is look at the average differential between local elections and general elections and that suggests that the Conservatives would poll 1% worse, Labour 7% better, the Lib Dems 4% worse and the Others 2% worse which would mean a projected general election vote share of Con 29%, Lab 45%, Lib Dem 12%, Others 14% which if reflected at a general election would see the following House of Commons (on the current 650 seat House): Lab 440 (+182), Con 174 (-133), Northern Ireland 18 (unchanged), SNP 14 (+8), Plaid 2 (-1), Lib Dems 1 (-56), Ind 1 (+1) allowing Ed Milliband to become Prime Minister with a Commons majority of 230 (greater than Tony Blair’s first landslide election).