Two holds in this week’s by-elections

Both of this week's by-elections were held by the party defending them, although one was a lot closer than expected. Plaid Cymru narrowly won in Gwynedd (Wales) as they suffered a large drop in their vote following the inclusion of Labour and Conservative candidates in this by-election. The Tories held a seat in Wokingham (Berkshire) with a far more comfortable margin despite the fact the by-election could have been construed as unnecessary.

I'll start in Wales where the Glyder division in Gwynedd was vacant following the death of Plaid Cymru Councillor Dai Rees Jones. He had won his seat comfortably in 2008 in a straight fight with the Liberal Democrats but the Welsh Nationalists were badly affected by Labour and the Conservatives standing candidates in this contest. Plaid's vote share fell by 25% whilst the Lib Dems managed to increased theirs slightly on the last election. In fact, the Liberal Democrats lost just 3 votes from 2008 but they still fell 13 short of gaining the seat from Plaid Cymru.

The result is still encouraging for Liberal Democrats as it shows that despite the party's national woes local candidates who have built up a personal vote can still compete. Doug Madge has been their candidate here for a number of elections and his vote total has remained constant throughout. Of course, one factor that needs to be remembered is that Plaid Cymru lost the personal vote of their Councillor, which could have played a part in their significant drop in vote share.

Still,, a win is a win and this one for Plaid ensures they have a majority in Gwynedd whatever the result of the forthcoming by-election in the Diffwys & Maenofferen division. As the next full Council elections are due to take place next May they are likely to remain in charge here for at least 9 months.

Gwynedd County Council
PC		IND		LG			LD			LAB			Vac
38	-	16	-	12	-		4	-		4	-		1	-
Glyder
By-Election Candidate						Votes			Vote %			+/-
Elin Walker Jones (E)						207			39.4%			-25.1%
Doug Madge						194			36.9%			+1.3%
Jennie Lewis						65			12.4%			+12.4%
Martyn Singleton						60			11.4%			+11.4%

In the other by-election taking place yesterday the Conservatives enjoyed a far more comfortable victory in the Remenham, Wargrave & Ruscombe ward, Wokingham. The vacancy on the Unitary Authority was caused by the resignation of Conservative Councillor Claire Stretton, who has moved from the area and managed to win a seat on the nearby Windsor & Maidenhead Council two months ago. The Tories recently lost a by-election in Torbay where the Liberal Democrats managed to secure a large swing by exploiting the unnecessary circumstances of the contest but the Lib Dems could not repeat the feat in Wokingham this week.

John Halsall secured almost two thirds for the vote for his party as the Conservatives held the seat by a big margin. The result represented a 3.8% swing towards the Tories on the 2010 result, although in comparison to 2008 election the Liberal Democrats have gained ground on the Conservatives. As these are the seats up for grabs next May there may be slight cause for concern for the Conservatives but as they hold such a large majority on the Council it's unlikely they will lose it next year.

Remenham, Wargrave & Ruscombe (Wokingham)
By-Election Candidate	Votes	Vote %	+/-*
John Halsall (E)	850	65.9%	+0.6%
Martin Alder	272	21.1%	-7.1%
Matthew Dent	94	7.3%	+0.7%
Andy Heape	55	4.3%	+4.3%
Martyn Foss	19	1.5%	+1.5%

* compared to 2010 result

 

Tom Harris