Constituencies:
Lab 48% (+16%), Con 20% (-2%), Plaid 19% (-3%), Lib Dem 7% (-8%)
Regionals:
Lab 45% (+15%), Con 20% (-1%), Plaid 18% (-3%), Others 12% (-4%), Lib Dem 5% (-7%)
Others Regional Breakdown:
UKIP 5% (+1%), Greens 4% (+1%), Others 3% (-6%)
Constituency Forecasts
Lab 32 seats (+8), Plaid 5 seats (-2), Con 3 seats (-2), Lib Dem 0 seats (-3)
GAINS
Labour: Aberconwy (from Plaid), Blaenau Gwent (from Ind), Cardiff North (from Con), Cardiff Central (from Lib Dem), Preseli Pembrokeshire (from Con), Clwyd West (from Con), Carmarthen West (from Con), Llanelli (from Plaid)
Conservatives: Brecon and Radnorshire (from Lib Dem), Montgomeryshire (from Lib Dem)
Regional List Forecasts
South Wales Central: Con 2 (n/c), Plaid 1 (-1), Lib Dem 1 (+1)
Wales Mid and West: Lab 1 (-1), Plaid 1 (n/c), Con 1 (n/c), Lib Dem 1 (+1)
Wales North: Con 3 (+1), Plaid 1 (n/c), Lib Dem 0 (-1)
Wales South East: Lab 2 (+2), Con 1 (n/c), Plaid 1 (-1), Lib Dem 0 (-1)
Wales South West: Plaid 2 (n/c), Con 2 (+1), Lib Dem 0 (-1)
Overall Forecast
Labour 32 constituencies + 3 regionals = 35 AM's (+9)
Conservatives 3 constituencies + 9 regionals = 12 AM's (unchanged)
Plaid Cymru 5 constituencies + 6 regionals = 11 AM's (-4)
Liberal Democrats 0 constituencies + 2 regionals = 2 AM's (-4)
Labour overall majority of 10
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2 years ago
The Lib Dems got over 30% in Merthyr in 2010. They'll be lucky to break double figures ever again.
ReplyDeleteHow have you called a SWC seat for the Lib Dems if they've been beaten by the Greens and matched by UKIP?
ReplyDelete35 seats for New Labour seems very high. Two regional seats for them in South East doesn't seem likely
ReplyDeleteIt seems you've entered the regional figures into the d'hondt calculator, which would give Labour 2 list seats but certainly wouldn't give 1 to the Lib Dems in SWC
ReplyDeleteI don't think your analysis of South East Wales Regional list is correct. Labour already have 6 out of 8 and are likely to win Blaenau Gwent. Please explain how they would win 2 on the regional list?
ReplyDeleteWales South East:
ReplyDeleteConstituencies: Lab 7 Con 1 Lib Dem 0 Plaid 0
Regional Vote:
Lab 105,559 / 8 = 13,195
Con 34,630 / 2 = 17,315
Plaid 22,687 / 1 = 22,687
Lib Dem 11,059 / 1 = 11,059
Plaid win the first regional seat (11,344)
Con win the second regional seat (11,543)
Lab win the third regional seat (11,728)
Lab win the fourth regional seat
I would also remind readers that Harry uses uniform national swing in the regional vote rather than the polls regional breakdowns. The regional breakdowns use tiny samples and are unweighted so this provides a superior overall result.
ReplyDeleteA completely useless poll which grossly oversampled Conservative voters and greossly undersampled Labour voters which meant that Yougov had to make massive weighting adjustments .
ReplyDeleteThe figures before weighting were Con 29% Lab 38% . the sample also estimates that turnout will be over 80% a record for any UK election .
@Chris
ReplyDeleteActually, I believe Harry uses 'Combined swing'. On national figures, of course.
That assumes though that the national swing is reflected regionally - which it won't be!
ReplyDeleteThe conservatives could surprise you with popular local candidate in Aberconwy.
ReplyDeleteHm, ditching Janet for a popular candidate at this late stage would be a surprise, certainly.
ReplyDeletelet's hope veronica german gonna get back as she is a good cyclist and likely to push cycling as a good form of transport
ReplyDelete