LibDems slip to third in their last defence before May

With just eight weeks to go until the May 5^th elections the Liberal Democrats suffered yet another heavy defeat in a by-election. Defending a seat in Burnley (Lancashire) they slipped to third place behind the BNP as Labour stormed to a comfortable gain. Labour also held a seat on the London Borough of Southwark Council in the only other principle authority by-election held last night.

I'll start with Burnley where the Rosegrove with Lowerhouse ward had a vacancy following the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Julie Johnson due to ill health. The ward has played host to some close elections during the last decade, including two ties, and Johnson's 57 vote victory margin last May was very much in keeping with this tradition. A strong BNP presence the ward has contributed to the tight contests as they compete with Labour and the Lib Dems to make this a three-way marginal. Therefore, the Lib Dems slipping down to third behind their two key competitors here is not a total shock; merely extremely disappointing for them! Beatrice Foster's win for Labour last night represented a seemingly direct 11.8% LD>LAB swing from last May elections.

Although Labour will be defending this ward in this year's round of elections the 9.6% swing on the 2007 result isn't good news for the Liberal Democrats. If that was repeated across the Burnley Council area in two months time they would only hold two of the six five (see comments) seats they are defending. It is almost certain that the current Liberal Democrat minority administration running Burnley will be replaced in May, with Labour setting their sights on a majority. This loss is just the latest in a long line of poor results for the Lib Dems in North West Council by-elections and the party must be bracing itself for the aftermath of May's elections. Big losses in the North are now expected but that won't make the Councillors losing their seats any less annoyed.

Burnley Borough Council
LD		LAB		CON		BNP			IND			VAC
20	-1	15	+1	5	-	2		-	1		-	2		-
Rosegrove with Lowerhouse
By-Election Candidate							Votes			Vote %			+/-
Beatrice Foster (LAB)							521			43.1%			+11.8%
Paul McDevitt (BNP)							288			23.8%			+5.5%
Kate Mottershead (LD)							261			21.6%			-11.8%
Matthew Isherwood (CON)							81			6.7%			-10.2%
Andrew Hennessey (IND)							58			4.8%			+4.8%

As this by-election is very likely to be last in a Liberal Democrat held seat before May's elections it's probably worth a quick note on the parties' prospects. The North appears to be quite predictable so it will be much more interesting to see how the beleaguered third party fares in its more traditional area of strength, the South West. Having seen Labour overtake them in Cornwall and Gloucestershire recently the omens aren't good, but the Lib Dems should be better equipped to fight all out District elections in this region than the reds. Their key problem is how many of their previous voters were merely lending them their vote to stop the Conservatives and, in turn, how many will continue to do so? Also, how many natural Liberal Democrat voters will actually turn out and vote for their party? As the Lib Dems hold more Parliamentary seats in the South West region than they do in the North West, North East and Yorkshire & Humber put together, District Council elections in the Westcountry will be good indicators to how well Clegg's party will perform at the next General Election.

The other by-election on Thursday took place in Southwark (London). A seat for the Brunswick Park ward was vacant following the resignation of Labour Councillor John Friary, who was arrested on suspicion of 'inciting a child to engage in sexual activity.' Despite the circumstances surrounding the by-election Labour held onto this safe seat comfortably, increasing their majority in the process. There must be a crumb of comfort for any Lib Dems out there seeing their vote share drop by just 2% (or 0.8%, depending on how you calculate the 2010 result)…! Mark Williams increased his party's vote share largely at the expense of Greens and the Conservatives. The win shores up the Labour administration in Southwark as they preserve their six seat majority. The next all out elections in London take place in 2014.

London Borough of Southwark
LAB		LD			CON			IND
34	-	25	-		3	-		1		-
(Brunswick Park) Southwark
By-Election Candidate				Votes			Vote %		+/-
Mark Williams (LAB)				1981			65.1%		+13.3%
Kate Heywood (LD)				630			20.7%		-2.0%
Jenny Bentall (GRN)				231			7.6%		-6.9%
Simon Kitchen (CON)				129			4.2%		-6.7%
Brian Kelly (TUSC)				70			2.3%		+2.3%