Northern Ireland Votes: Strangford

Strangford is in the very east of County Down, wedged in-between North Down and South Down. To its North West sits Belfast, to its direct West sits Lagan Valley, and to its East sits the Irish Sea and, eventually, Britain. The constituency name strikes me as slightly odd, as Strangford is a village of 474 in the South Down constituency. The largest settlement in Strangford is Newtownards The seat is largely suburban, taking in a large proportion of the Belfast commuter belt, though it also has rural areas. The farmers here are very prosperous as are the suburban areas and the constituency is either the second or third wealthiest constituency, depending on what measure you use, and most of the constituency falls in the top 20% of Northern Ireland. The seat is not very Catholic, with about 13-15% Catholic in 2001, making this either the 3^rd or 4^th least Catholic constituency. The seat is also the second most Presbyterian, and as such the DUP, with its attachment to the Free Presbyterian Church, is strong here. The seat has been victim to a huge shift in boundaries since 2007 which notionally makes it 1.3% more Catholic and 1.2% less Protestant. In prior Assembly elections Nationalists have just lost out on gaining a seat, so this may be vital. From 2001 to 2010 the seat was held by Iris Robinson of the DUP. I do not believe it is possible to understand the current politics of Northern Ireland, let alone this constituency, without understanding the story of ‘Irisgate’ which embroiled Iris Robinson in early 2010, so here goes.

Iris Robinson is the wife of Peter Robinson the long-time DUP deputy leader, who succeeded Ian Paisley as DUP leader and First Minister in 2008. Iris first came to prominence for her support of her husband after the ‘Invasion of Clontibret’ in 1986 when he led 500 loyalists across the border into Ireland to attack an unmanned Garda (Irish police) tower, attack two Gardai, and have a quasi-military parade. She became a local councillor in Castlereagh in this constituency in 1989, a MLA for this seat in 1998 and MP for this seat in 2001, holding all three jobs (‘triple-jobbing’) at once. She also became the DUP’s health spokesperson. A highly religious woman and a born again Christian Iris caused controversy in 2008 when, after a homophobic assault on a gay man, she offered to refer homosexuals to psychiatric care, condemning the attack but saying that homosexuality was an ‘abomination’ and made her ‘sick’.

In late December 2009, prior to a BBC Spotlight programme looking into her personal life and financial dealings she stood down from the Assembly, claiming to have suffered from serious bouts of depression and to have attempted suicide at one point. On the 7^th of January the Spotlight programme aired and revealed that Robinson had had an affair with a then 19 year old lover (Robinson is now 61, but was 59 at the time of the affair). She arranged loans of £50,000 for her lover, keeping £5,000 for herself, to rent a restaurant. She did not declare her interest in doing so (possibly breaching the law) and the restaurant in question was rented from Castlereagh borough council, on which Robinson sat. When the relationship ended she demanded the money back.

These revelations caused a sensation. Peter and Iris had already been heavily embroiled in the expenses scandal and the way Iris used multiple positions for personal gain led to irritation at ‘double-jobbing’, a common practice in Northern Ireland. Her low House of Commons attendance record didn’t help either. Considering Iris’s prior comments on morality she was also seen to be highly hypocritical. For a while it looked like Peter Robinson would go, or that the DUP would be heavily hit, but the party has remarkably managed to weather the storm. The 2010 result then:

Candidate	Party	Vote	Change
Jim Shannon	DUP	45.9%	-8.8%
Mike Nesbitt	UUP/Con	27.8%	+6.4%
Deborah Girvan	Alliance	8.7%	+0.5%
Claire Hanna	SDLP	6.7%	-1.8%
Terry Williams	TUV	5.6%	+5.6%
Michael Coogan	Sinn Fein	3.6%	-0.1%
Barbara Haig	Green Party	1.7%	+1.7%

With Iris gone, the DUP still experienced a fair drop in support, the main recipients being the TUV and UUP. Some of the UUP rise is also no doubt down to the presence on the ballot of Mike Nesbitt, a well known TV presenter in Northern Ireland. Still, the DUP won by a fair margin, one imagines they would have only lost the seat if they’d allowed Iris to remain MP beyond January or if they'd held a by-election (instead the seat was left vacant until May). Boundary changes may have made the seat notionally more Catholic but this isn’t backed by the Nationalist vote. This may be due to Catholics voting cross-community (particularly the Greens), or not bothering to turn out in such a heavily Protestant constituency. The 2007 result then:

MLA	Party	First Pref	Round Elected
Iris Robinson	DUP	16.4%	1
Jim Shannon	DUP	13.3%	6
Kieran McCarthy	Alliance	11.3%	10
Simon Hamilton	DUP	10.8%	13
David McNarry	UUP	10.3%	8
Michelle McIlveen	DUP	9.6%	13
Jonathan Bell	DUP	N/A	N/A
Simpson Gibson	DUP	N/A	N/A

Best Losers	Party	First Pref	Round Eliminated
Joe Boyle	SDLP	8.5%	13
Angus Carson	UUP	5.9%	9
Dermot Kennedy	Sinn Fein	3.0%	9
George Ennis	UKUP	2.4%	7
Stephanie Sim	Green Party	2.4%	9
Michael Henderson	UUP	1.9%	5

Overall Result

Party	Vote	Seats
DUP	50.1%	4
UUP	18.1%	1
Alliance	11.3%	1
SDLP	8.5%	0
Sinn Fein	3.0%	0

The Incumbents

Iris Robinson (DUP) stood down almost immediately after the Spotlight documentary. She was replaced by Jonathan Bell. Bell was a social worker turned UUP councillor in 1997, he defected to the DUP in 2000 due to dissatisfaction with the UUP leadership. He’s served on two councils, Ards from 2005 and Craigavon before that (where he served as both Mayor and Deputy Mayor). Bell was notably ejected from the Stormont Assembly room for referring to Dublin-born SDLP MLA Conall McDevitt as “The mouth from the South”, and is known for his quips in the chamber. With something of a local base in politics, a strong DUP vote, a slight prominence and it is likely that Bell will be re-elected fairly handily.

Jim Shannon (DUP) is a former Army officer turned DUP politician. He has resigned his seat in order to become the seat MP (practically essential in this seat). He was replaced by Simpson Gibson. Gibson, a local councillor since 1981, a former PPC for Strangford and a former Vice-Chairman of the DUP, is not standing for election this year, which is understandable, considering he is 65.

Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) has been a MLA since 1998, a local councillor since 1985, and is the Alliance Party’s Chief Whip. I cannot be certain, given that he has not made an announcement and the Alliance has not said who is standing, but McCarthy is 68, has been a politician for a very long time and did not stand in 2010. My bet is he will not be running in May. If he does decide to remain a MLA until into his 70s, he will probably be safe.

Simon Hamilton (DUP) has been a local councillor since 2005 and a MLA since 2007. Hamilton won the ‘up and coming politician’ Slugger Award in 2009. As a prominent local politician on the rise, and with a diminished DUP bench compared to 2007, Hamilton should be fine.

David McNarry (UUP) is the sole UUP MLA in this seat. He stood in this seat for the 1982 Assembly, but failed to be elected. McNarry was then a councillor and a special adviser to David Trimble when he was First Minister. McNarry was elected in 2003 and then a candidate for the leadership when Trimble stood down. He was also been a chairman of the UUP’s youth wing and a current Assistant Grand Master of the Orange Order. The UUP certainly have a solid vote in the constituency and if they repeat their 2010 result may even be able to get a second seat. The biggest danger to McNarry, then, is being unseated by his running mate, the 2010 candidate Mike Nesbitt, if the UUP does not get a second seat and McNarry comes behind Nesbitt.

Michelle McIlveen (DUP) is the fourth DUP MLA in this DUP stronghold. A local councillor in Ards and a former teacher, she is the party’s spokesperson on children and young people. The DUP website claims she is ‘renowned’ for her constituency work (but then they would say that!). Apparently, however, she has recently launched a ‘MLA on call’ service out of hours and home appointments. In 2007 she only beat the SDLP candidate, Joe Boyle, out for the final seat by 31 votes, however considering the candidates she should be the third DUP candidate in this at least and is probably safe.

The Challengers

As I see it there is one definitely open seat (Shannon/Gibson’s) and one likely open (McCarthy’s). The DUP is running William Walker as its fourth candidate here. Walker is a local councillor on Down District Council, representing Rowallane. He likely has a local base in that area but he is unlikely to be elected in my view. The 2010 Westminster result equates to enough to elect only 3.2 MLAs, whereas ark.ac.uk/elections calculates a notional 2007 result equivalent to 3.4 MLAs. Holding a fourth MLA will require a superb performance then. The DUP can probably expect something of an upturn from 2010, considering that Iris Robinson will be mostly forgotten by May, but nonetheless the figures do not look promising.

The Alliance have not announced their candidate for this seat yet, but assuming McCarthy stands down I think it is fairly safe to assume that the candidate will be Deborah Girvan. Girvan was the party’s 2010 Westminster candidate, which is usually a good first step to being elected to the Assembly. Girvan has experience in marketing, communications and as a Physical Education lecturer. She is chairperson of the constituency association. While Girvan clearly has a fair deal of political experience under her belt she has never before held elected office, which may be to her disadvantage. Alliance MLAs also tend to experience a strong incumbency bonus and thus the Alliance can probably expect to lose votes in this seat. That said, Girvan did manage to slightly boost the Alliance vote in this constituency in 2010, so she may be a capable enough campaigner to balance that out.

The SDLP have a solid chance of gaining a seat in this hitherto Unionist dominated constituency. Losing out by just 32 votes in 2007, boundary changes have made the seat notionally more Catholic. On paper then, it should be an easy SDLP win. The SDLP is easily the larger nationalist party here, and Sinn Fein votes should homogenise behind it. The SDLP also tends to receive healthy transfers from eliminated Greens, so there may be an extra boost there. Making up 32 votes should be easy, considering all this, but the 2010 Westminster result does not show nearly the Nationalist vote I’d expect. Altogether it reaches 10.3%, which is 4% behind what’s needed to reach quota. It may be that more nationalist voters will turn out and vote in May, but either way I suspect the SDLP will run this close. Their chances of gaining a seat are essentially contingent on how good voter management is within each community. It should be easier for the SDLP as they have only two seats, so to some extent it is contingent on how good voter management is amongst Unionists. In the SDLP’s favour they are running their 2007 candidate, Joe Boyle, a local councillor. As the 2007 candidate Boyle has already run the DUP close in this constituency once and can probably do it again.

Finally the UUP also have a good chance for a seat. Their 2010 result is enough to elect 1.9 MLAs, while I suspect it will fall back slightly, that is a highly promising starting point. Also in their favour is that they have chosen their 2010 candidate Mike Nesbitt to run here. Nesbitt is a well known TV presenter and broadcaster in the province, and as such expands the party’s base, brings it extra attention and gives it a wider appeal. My suspicion is that McNarry will appear more to older, more hardline, more traditional UUP voters, whereas Nesbitt may attract younger, more liberal voters. He may even be able to pull some support from the Alliance. By combining the experienced MLA McNarry the UUP has a powerful slate here, and one of their best chances for a gain in Northern Ireland. The UUP will have to be careful however because Nesbitt is possibly prominent enough to unseat McNarry if they only get the one seat.

All in all then I feel fairly certain in saying that I feel that boundary changes and Iris Robinson have decreased the DUP vote here enough to make sure that they will not get their fourth seat. Additionally the Alliance seat is at risk, given the high likelihood that McCarthy will go. As such I think the last two seats will come down to a three-way race between the UUP for a second seat, the SDLP for a nationalist seat and the Alliance.