A Look at North Wales (Part III)

This post looks at the list seats in the region. You can find the Anglesey, Conwy and the north Gwynedd seats here and the Vale of Clwyd, Flintshire and Wrexham seats here.

The 2007 Regional List Result was as follows:

Party	Const. Seats	Region Votes	Region Votes %	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	5	51831	26.4%	0	5
Plaid Cymru	3	50558	25.75%	1	4
Conservatives	1	50266	25.6%	2	3
Lib. Dems.	0	15275	7.8%	1	1
BNP	5.1%	Christian Party			0.7%
UKIP	4.1%	Communist Party			0.4%
Green	2.8%	Christian Peoples			0.3%
SLP	1.1%
Additional Members
1. Brynle Williams			3. Eleanor Burnham
2. Mark Isherwood			4. Janet Ryder

Most Likely Result

There are fewer competitive seats in this region compared to Mid & West Wales which should make calculating potential list seats a lot easier. Of course, things that should happen sometimes don't! Realistically, given the current polling position Labour are likely to hold every seat they won in 2007. Clearly Wrexham is going to be an interesting contest but I don't think John Marek as a Conservative will be able to cobble together a coalition of voters big enough to beat a sitting Labour AM in a Labour year.

The really competitive marginals in this region are discussed in this post. Plaid Cymru's leader Ieuan Wyn Jones faces a strong challenge in Ynys Mons from the Conservatives but in general party heads don't lose their seats. Clwyd West is CON/LAB marginal and Labour would take this seat on Uniform Swing. Finally, Aberconwy is a bit of a lottery with the potential to be a tight three way contest.

The latter two I've classed as Too Close but Clwyd West could tentatively be placed in the Labour column on polling evidence. Aberconwy could go any which way but as Plaid's current AM isn't standing and the Conservatives were second in 2007 then the Tories should be slight favourites. So, IF Labour take Clwyd West and the Tories gain Aberconwy then, using Uniform Swing from the January YouGov poll, the regional seats would be allocated as follows:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	6	37	0	6
Plaid Cymru	2	26	2	4
Conservatives	1	25	2	3
Lib. Dems.	0	4	0	0

Under this scenario the Liberal Democrat AM Eleanor Burnham in North Wales would lose her seat to Plaid Cymru. To be honest, in every realistic scenario Burnham loses her seat as she was beaten by Aled Roberts in the selection to be the party's lead list candidate. Roberts is currently the leader of Wrexham Council and, to be quite frank, is likely to remain so after this May's Assembly election. This is because the Lib Dems are hovering around 4-5% in the North Wales list vote which is below the effective quota to win a regional seat.

In the above result the Conservatives take the first seat which would return Mark Isherwood to the Assembly for a third term. Isherwood was the Tories #2 candidate at the 2007 election but he edged out Brynle Williams to top his party's list this time around. The second seat would head to Plaid Cymru whose sole list AM Janet Ryder is standing down. They have selected Llyr Huws Gruffydd, who stood in Clywd West at last year's General Election, as their lead candidate. The third seat would go to the Tories and so their other current AM Brynle Williams would return to Cardiff Bay.

The final seat would be won by Plaid's #2 candidate Heledd Fychan, who contested Montgomeryshire last May. However, Fychan would only just hold off the third Conservative candidate on these vote shares. There is a fair chance that the Tories could take a higher percentage of the list vote than Plaid and if they do Antoinette Sandbach, who has fought the Delyn constituency in recent elections, will win the fourth seat.

So, what if Plaid hang on to Aberconwy and Labour take Clywd West:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	6	37	0	6
Plaid Cymru	3	26	1	4
Conservatives	0	25	3	3
Lib. Dems.	0	4	0	0

Under this scenario Plaid Cymru's victory in Aberconwy seat would then lose them a list seat. The first three top-up seats would be won by the Conservatives so Mark Isherwood, Brynle Williams and Antoinette Sandbach would be elected in that order. The final seat would be filled by Plaid's lead candidate Llyr Huws Gruffydd but his place in the Fourth Assembly is by no means assured. If the Tories get a higher regional vote share than Plaid then they could win all four seats! Ironically, their #4 candidate Janet Howarth tried to become the Tory candidate in Aberconwy
but she lost out to Janet Finch-Saunders. If Finch-Saunders fails to win the constituency seat for her party then Howarth could become an regional AM!

The next scenario is if Labour have an outstanding performance in North Wales and gain both Clywd West and Aberconwy (from third):

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	7	37	0	7
Plaid Cymru	2	26	1	3
Conservatives	0	25	3	3
Lib. Dems.	0	4	0	0

In this outcome the Conservatives win three seats and Plaid one, with the same familiar faces elected. The order would be Isherwood (CON), Williams (CON), Gruffydd (PC), Sandbach (CON). Even if the Tories beat Plaid in the regional vote the seat allocation would remain the same. The only difference would be that Sandbach would pip Gruffydd to the third berth.

As we have already met all the candidates in contention I'll keep the other three scenarios, where I'll hold the Conservatives beating Labour in Clwyd West as a constant, short and sweet.

If the Tories have a very good night and hold Clwyd West and gain Aberconwy then:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	5	37	0	5
Plaid Cymru	2	26	2	4
Conservatives	2	25	2	4
Lib. Dems.	0	4	0	0

The elected AMs would be: Gruffydd (PC), Isherwood (CON), Fychan (PC), Williams (CON). If the Tories beat Plaid in regional vote share then it would go CON, PC, CON, PC.

If the Tories hold Clwyd West and Plaid hold Abercowy:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	5	37	0	5
Plaid Cymru	3	26	1	4
Conservatives	1	25	3	4
Lib. Dems.	0	4	0	0

The elected AMs would be: Isherwood (CON), Williams (CON), Gruffydd (PC), Sandbach (CON). If the Tories beat Plaid in regional vote share then Sandbach and Gruffydd would swap.

Finally, if Labour gain Aberconwy and the Tories hold Clywd West:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	6	37	0	6
Plaid Cymru	2	26	2	4
Conservatives	1	25	2	3
Lib. Dems.	0	4	0	0

The elected AMs would be: Isherwood (CON), Gruffydd (PC), Williams (CON), Fychan (PC). If the Tories beat Plaid in regional vote share then the Tories would take an extra seat at Plaid's expenses. The elected AMs would be: Isherwood (CON), Williams (CON), Gryffydd (PC), Sandbach (CON).

So, what have we learned?! The two current Conservative Assembly Members Mark Isherwood and Brynle Williams will almost certainly be heading back to Cardiff Bay. Plaid's lead candidate Llyr Huws Gruffydd is quite likely to win a seat but if Plaid lose out to the Tories in the regional vote share then there is an outside chance he could miss out. This is only really possible if his party win the Aberconwy constituency. Antoinette Sandbach (CON) and Heledd Fychan (PC) will be the most nervous candidates on election night as they are in contention for that fourth and final seat.

As for the other main parties, the Liberal Democrats look set to lose their sole North Wales AM unless their polling improves. Equally, Labour's lead candidate Gwyneth Thomas is unlikely to become an Assembly Member unless her party seriously under-perform in the constituencies or seriously over perform in the list vote.

Finally, there is an outside possibility that UKIP could win a seat in this region as the effective threshold looks likely to be as low as 6.5% of the regional vote. Nathan Gill is their lead candidate and the party seem quite hopeful he could become their first Welsh Assembly Member. They won 4% of the vote in 2007 so they would need to increase their vote by over a third to sneak a seat. Not completely out of the question but they will need to work hard.

 

This post ignores the latest YouGov Wales poll so as to keep consistency throughout the original previews. An initial forecast based on the previews will be up shortly and a revised prediction will follow shortly after that.