By-Election Preview (17th March)

We are very near the end of our pre-May 5^th by-elections with just five currently scheduled before the big day in seven weeks time. Two are to be held tomorrow and the good news is one should be an interesting AV vote for a ward in Renfrewshire (Scotland). The SNP are the defending party in that contest and the Conservatives are looking to hold the other vacancy in Tunbridge Wells (Kent).

I'll start in Renfrewshire where the Paisley South ward has a vacancy following the death of Scottish Nationalist Councillor Jim Mitchell. In 2007, Labour were the only party to provide a candidate who reached the quota on first preferences alone. Mitchell came third in first preferences for this four member ward, but he was overtaken by the sole Liberal Democrat candidate during the transfer stages. He still comfortably held off an Independent for the last spot after the second Labour candidate, who was initially fifth, was also overtaken.

The key issue from the 2007 result is that Labour had easily enough votes to secure a couple of seats. The two SNP candidates between them received 200 first preferences less than their Labour counterparts yet both were elected. It would seem that the one of the Labour candidates was significantly more popular than the other as their second candidate was eliminated in sixth place whilst his running mate was safely elected in the first round. That unfortunate candidate was Ron Glen who was a Renfrewshire Councillor for eight years before the 2007 election. He's standing again in this by-election and although the figures below would indicate Labour are starting ahead they will be without the assumed personal vote of their elected candidate.

All this suggests that we are in for a good demonstration of an Alternative Vote ballot just seven weeks before the national referendum on whether or not to adopt the system for Westminster elections. There is a fair chance none of the candidates will get close to 50% of the vote on first preferences alone so transfers could play a key role. Tomorrow's vote will also be a useful taster for the Scottish Parliament elections given the interesting recent polling on the devolved legislature.

Renfrewshire itself is currently run by a SNP led coalition with the Liberal Democrats as the junior partner. If the nationalists fail to win this by-election the coalition will have exactly half the seats on the Council, which could impact on the lower preferences of certain voters. A final note on this by-election; the Independent ran for the Paisley and Renfrewshire North seat (which does not contain this ward) at last year's General Election, coming fifth with 550 votes. The combined first preferences given to Independents here in 2007 were almost 17%, which if repeated could prove interesting should the battle between Labour and the SNP be tight.

Update (see comments): The Independent who got 10.3% in 2007 had previously stood for Renfrewshire council as an SNP candidate. I get the sense that if Labour win this there will have been a significant 'invisible' (?!) swing to them from the Nationalists.

Renfrewshire Council
LAB	SNP	LD	CON		VAC
17	16	4	2		1
Paisley South
By-Election Candidate				2007
Roy Glen (LAB)				31.6%
David McCartney (SNP)				28.5%
Ross Stalker (LD)				12.6%
N/C (IND)				10.3%
Alison Cook (CON)				6.9%
N/C (IND)				5.5%
N/C (GRN)				1.8%
N/C (Solidarity)				1.4%
N/C (IND)				0.9%
Jimmy Kerr (SSP)				0.6%
Gary Pearson (IND)				-

The other by-election taking place tomorrow is in the South East. Pembury, Tunbridge Wells is vacant following the resignation of Conservative Councillor Mike Tompsett over the de-selection of a colleague. Tompsett was easily re-elected in May in a straight fight with the Liberal Democrats; a result in keeping with the previous elections in this ward. There will be the addition of UKIP candidate this time around, however they stood in 2008 & 2007 and barely made an impact. The Tories are likely to hold this but even if they fail to they have a big enough majority on the Council to cope with the loss.

Pembury (Tunbridge Wells)
By-Election Candidate	2010	2008	2007
Robert Rutherford (CON)	59.4%	67.9%	54.3%
Claire Brown (LD)	40.6%	26.0%	39.0%
Victor Webb (UKIP)	-	6.1%	6.7%