By-Election Preview (3rd March)

After a week off we are back with a bang this Thursday! Not only do we have the Barnsley Central by-election and the Welsh Referendum tomorrow there are also no less than five Council vacancies to fill. They are a mixed bag as well with a couple for North West Metropolitan Authorities along with local by-elections in Scotland, Wales and Cambridgeshire. Labour and the Conservatives are defending two seats each with Plaid Cymru hoping to hold the other. Labour could pick up that seat from Plaid and they have an excellent change of relieving the Tories' of one of theirs.

I'll start in Wales where Plaid Cymru are defending the Riverside ward in Cardiff. The by-election is taking place following the resignation of Cllr. Gwenllian Lansdown, who is moving to Powys after her recent marriage. She was joint top in the 2008 poll as Plaid comfortably won all three seats in this multi-member ward ahead of Labour. It will take a 5.7% swing for Labour to gain this tomorrow and given the party's recent performances in by-elections this is certainly possible. However, Plaid took approximately 45% of the vote at the last election and they have selected 'Mr Riverside' as their candidate. It won't be easy for Labour to take this but they do have added incentive. The Liberal Democrats run Cardiff with Plaid as their junior partners and between them they currently hold 40 of the 75 seats. With just over a year until the next full elections it would be a blow to the local coalition if Labour won tomorrow.

Cardiff Council
LD	CON	LAB	PC	IND	VAC
34	17	13	6	4	1
Riverside (Cardiff)
By-Election Candidate				2008
Steve Garrett (PC)				43.9%
Iona Gordon (LAB)				32.4%
James Roach(CON)				12.2%
Gwilym Owen (LD)				11.5%
Yvan Maurel (GRN)				-

In Wigan Labour have much better chance of picking up a seat, this time at the expense of the Conservatives. The vacancy for the Wigan Central ward arose following the resignation of Cllr. Henry Cadman due to ill health, although the Council had already voted against extending his sick leave anyway. Cadman won his seat in 2008 with over half the vote but things have gone downhill for the Conservatives here since then. One of Cadman's fellow Tory Councillors in this ward Gareth Fairhurst broke away from the party in 2009 to form a four-strong Independent group with his father, wife and sister. When Fairhurst's term ended last May he stood for re-election as a 'Wigan Independent Conservative'. This spectacularly split the right of centre vote with the official Tory candidate allowing Labour to comfortably gain the seat. Fairhurst is standing again, as is the same Tory candidate from last year. With the Conservative vote set to split yet again Labour must be quite confident of adding another seat to their handsome majority in Wigan. Their only fear would be if the right leaning voters get behind one candidate and Farihurst is, naturally, hoping they back his Independent challenge.

Wigan Central (Wigan)
By-Election Candidate	2010	2008	2007
Lawrence Hunt (LAB)	42.2%	30.4%	33.1%
Robin Gibson (CON)	25.9%	50.5%	44.3%
Gareth Fairhurst (IND-CON)	18.6%	-	-
Keith Jones (UKIP)	8.1%	12.2%	-
N/C (BNP)	5.2%	-	6.3%
N/C (Community Action)	-	6.9%	6.9%
N/C (LD)	-	-	9.5%

The other seat the Conservatives are defending should be a lot easier to hang on to. March North, Cambridgeshire County Council is vacant following the death of Cllr. John West, who secured over 55% of the vote in 2009. The Liberal Democrats were quite a way back in second and they are more likely to drop away than take the seat. Having said that, they were close here in 2005 and they did produce a surprise gain a fortnight ago so I guess anything is technically possible! Even if there is a shock result tomorrow night the Tories will still comfortably control the Council.

There are few examples of Labour failing to defend a seat since the General Election so the by-elections in West Dunbartonshire and Salford should be straightforward holds for the party. As usual, we are mildly excited by the prospect of an AV by-election in Scotland but sadly this one isn't likely to show off the election system we could be using at the next General Election.

The vacancy for the Kilpatrick ward in West Dunbartonshire was caused by the resignation of Labour Councillor Margaret Bootland for health reasons. Both Labour candidates passed the quota on first preferences in 2007 so there is a strong likelihood that only one round of counting will take place. Third and final seat was taken by the SNP but the disparity between vote totals of the elected candidate and his running mate is particularly interesting. Cllr. Jim Finn received 1092 first preferences but the other SNP candidate Frank McNiff only managed 403, which suggests that Finn enjoys a significant personal vote in this ward. The nationalists have selected McNiff as their candidate for this by-election so they actually have even more work to do than the previous result (below) would suggest. The Council is currently run by a minority SNP administration and Labour will hold just one seat less than nationalists if they win tomorrow.

Finally, the by-election for Walkden North, Salford MBC is taking place following the death of Labour Councillor Vincent Devine. He comfortably held his seat in 2008 and as Labour consistently won in this ward during the latter part of the last Government they shouldn't have a problem tomorrow. In the unlikely event they lost Labour would still have a huge majority on the Council.

March North (Cambridgeshire)			Walkden North (Salford)
By-Election Candidate	2009		By-Election Candidate	2010	2008	2007
Steve County (CON)	55.8%		Brenden Ryan (LAB)	50.9%	47.3%	49.6%
William McAdam (LD)	30.5%		Chris Bates (CON)	21.9%	34.6%	26.9%
Louis Sugden (LAB)	13.7%		Susan Carson (LD)	17.4%	18.1%	12.3%
			Laurence Depares (ED)	9.7%	0.0%	0.0%
			N/C (UKIP)	0.0%	0.0%	11.2%
			Keith Fairhurst (BNP)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

West Dunbartonshire Council
SNP	LAB	IND	SSP		VAC
9	7	4	1		1
Kilpatrick
By-Election Candidate				2007
Lawrence O'Neill (LAB)				55.9%
Frank NcNiff (SNP)				32.8%
Douglas Boyle (CON)				8.3%
N/C (SSP)				3.0%