Monday, 28 March 2011

Dare we write off the SNP at our peril?

A new poll on the subject of Scotland has just been commented on by Political which suggests that we discount the SNP at our peril. Based on that poll that puts Labour and the SNP tied in the constituency vote and the regional list vote, it suggests that in the constituency vote Labour would win 46 seats (+11 on 2007), the SNP would win 24 seats (+3 seats) with the Conservatives only winning 2 seats (-4 seats) and the Liberal Democrats only just avoiding a constituency wipeout (by holding on to Shetland by 1,000 votes) having lost 10 seats and in the regional list vote the SNP would win 23 seats (-2), the Conservatives 15 seats (+2), Labour 9 (-1), Lib Dems 5 (-1) and the Greens on 3 (+2) making a Scottish Parliament of:

Labour 55 MSP's (+10), SNP 47 MSP's (+1), Conservatives 17 MSP's (-2), Liberal Democrats 6 MSP's (-11), Greens 3 (+2)

thus opening the way for the SNP to retain power by saying to the Liberal Democrats and Greens "Welcome aboard" and challenging the Conservatives to bring down any coalition. Of course, these are purely suggestions (for instance would the Lib Dems really be prepared to support an SNP administration or would Labour really let the SNP off scot free)? What seemed like a foregone conclusion a few weeks ago is now too close to call (and will make the next 37 days of electioneering in Scotland even more fascinating than in 2007!)

1 comment:

  1. The problem I see with your analysis is that in my opinion anyway, the Greens won't support an SNP administration. Everything points to the Greens joining/supporting Labour, but in this case a Lab/Green coalition doesn't command a majority.

    It would be interesting in this case if the SNP would be willing to do a deal with the Conservatives - they've said they won't, but I think we've got to take these sort of claims from the parties (mainly SNP and Labour) with a pinch of salt - if they think they can't get into Government any other way, then they might indeed be willing to go for it. It's easier to say it at a time when it's somewhat irrelevant.

    They've worked together a lot over the last parliament anyway, so it could work. It wouldn't quite be enough to get the magical 65, but Margo (who would side with the SNP you'd think) would give them them that, but if she didn't and/or if there were rebels then they could appeal to the Lib Dems to get them over the line.