Local By-Elections as a means of forecasting Locals 2011

As well as having elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly, two by-elections in Leicester South and Belfast West and the small matter of a referendum on the Alternative Vote, 279 local councils up and down England will also be voting and if the local by-elections since the general election are any indication, then there are going to be one or two surprises come the morning of May 6^th.

Since the general election last year there have been a total of 176 local by-elections up and down the country, of these 63 were in wards last elected in 2007 (when the Conservatives had an absolute barnstormer of a local election night and won virtually everything up for grabs). It is for this reason that of those 63 wards, 33 were being defended by the Conservatives, 10 were being defended by Labour, the Lib Dems were defending 9, the Independents were defending 7 although with two Green defences and two SNP defences. And now have those 63 come out.

	GAINS	HOLDS	LOSSES	NET
Con	6	23	10	-4
Lab	6	7	3	+3
Lib Dem	6	6	3	+3
SNP	0	0	2	-2
Ind	3	3	4	-1
Greens	0	1	1	-1
Others	2	0	0	+2

As you can see the Conservative seem to have come out the worst having made four net losses with both Labour and the Lib Dems doing the best, but do the votes cast in these 63 wards reflect that?

Conservatives 26,096 votes (30.94%)

Labour 21,691 votes (25.72%)

Liberal Democrats 17,028 votes (20.19%)

Independents 6,645 votes (7.88%)

Scottish Nationalists 6,139 votes (7.28%)

Green Party 3,679 votes (4.36%)

United Kingdom Independence Party 1,216 votes (1.44%)

British National Party 423 votes (0.50%)

Other Parties 1,415 votes (1.68%)

On the face of it, that looks like a good result for the Conservatives and would certainly put them in a positive mood for the local elections in May, if it was not for that fact that compared with the national projected share in 2007, there has been a 4% swing from Con to Lab and a 2% swing from Con to Lib Dem. Now, it is not easy to say what sort of impact that may have on the local elections (as there are elections all over the country) but it is possible to say what may happen in certain councils.

North Somerset: Con 46, Ind 6, Lib Dem 5, Lab 3, Green 1 (Con maj 31)

Forecast: Con 40, Lib Dem 10, Ind 6, Lab 4, Green 1 (Con HOLD, maj 19)

St. Edmundsbury: Con 36, Lib Dem 3, Lab 3, Ind 3 (Con maj 27)

Forecast: Con 32, Lab 5, Lib Dem 5, Ind 3 (Con HOLD, maj 19)

North Warwickshire: Con 21, Lab 14 (Con maj 7)

Forecast: Lab 21, Con 14 (Lab GAIN from Con, maj 7)

Based on those three councils (for which I have data for) and looking at the other councils across the UK, I would expect Labour to gain: Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton on Tees, South Derbyshire, North Warwickshire, Gravesham, Broxtowe and Allerdale and would expect the Lib Dems to gain: Milton Keynes, Mendip, Tewkesbury, Teignbridge, Guildford, Taunton Deane, North Dorset and North Devon.