By-Election Preview (10th March)

After last week's bumper crop of Council by-elections coinciding with the Barnsley Central by-election and the Welsh Referendum we're a bit relieved to have only two contests to cover this week! They are taking place in Burnley (Lancashire) and Southwark (London) with the Liberal Democrats defending the former and Labour the latter.

We'll start in the North West where Rosegrove with Lowerhouse, Burnley BC is up for grabs following the resignation of Liberal Democrat Councillor Julie Johnson due to ill health. She was narrowly elected last May but her 57 vote victory from the Labour candidate then doesn't really begin to tell the story of this topsy-turvy ward. In 2008 the Lib Dems won this ward far more comfortably, this time from the BNP. However, in 2007 the Lib Dems were third here behind Labour and the BNP, who actually tied for first place. The Labour candidate was elected after the result was determined by drawing lots. Elections prior to 2007 were equally interesting with number of close results and the BNP consistently having a presence in this ward.

The Liberal Democrats look set to lose control of Burnley as the three seat majority they secured after last year's partial elections has been eroded due to defections and vacancies. They currently hold 20 of the 45 seats with three vacant so even if they managed to hold this seat tomorrow they can still be outvoted by the opposition groups. Although the Labour seat in this ward is to be contested this May this result should indicate how many of the six seats the Liberal Democrats will be defending can be saved. Interesting candidate information includes; the Lib Dem is the wife of a current Councillor and the Independent stood at last year's General Election managing 287 votes.

Burnley Borough Council
LD	LAB	CON	BNP		IND		VAC
20	14	5	2		1		3
Rosegrove with Lowerhouse
By-Election Candidate				2010		2008		2007
Kate Mottershead (LD)				33.4%		40.2%		28.4%
Beatrice Foster (LAB)				31.3%		18.5%		30.7%
Paul McDevitt (BNP)				18.4%		31.0%		30.7%
Matthew Isherwood (CON)				16.9%		10.3%		10.3%
Andrew Hennessey (IND)				-		-		-

The other by-election taking place tomorrow is noteworthy for a completely different reason. Brunswick Park, Southwark is vacant following the resignation of Cllr. John Friary. The Labour Councillor, who also held a cabinet post in Southwark, quit after he was arrested on suspicion of 'inciting a child to engage in sexual activity.' Friary is currently on bail and the allegations appear to involve grooming on social networking sites. So, with such unusual circumstances triggering the by-election could there be an upset?

The answer is probably not. Friary topped the poll in this multi-member ward last May and his two running mates easily took the other two seats well ahead of the top Liberal Democrat candidate. The changes in the political landscape since that election have strengthened Labour at the expense of the Lib Dems so the only effect Friary's conduct may have on this election is to lessen the increase in Labour's majority. This is quite fortunate for the reds as they don't have a huge majority in the London borough and can't really afford to lose this seat.

London Borough of Southwark
LAB	LD	CON	IND		VAC
33	25	3	1		1
(Brunswick Park)
By-Election Candidate				2010
Mark Williams (LAB)				51.8%
Kate Heywood (LD)				22.7%
Jenny Bentall (GRN)				14.5%
Simon Kitchen (CON)				10.9%
Brian Kelly (TUSC)				-