Final Welsh Assembly Forecast

As polling stations open across the country it's probably about time we told you how we think the make-up of Welsh Assembly will be after this election. I have looked at all the comments we've received on the state of constituency races and crunched the latest YouGov polls to produce this Final Forecast. I have tried to take as much information as possible into account to make this Forecast and I guess it remains to be seen whether I'm closer than Harry's more statistical approach. Without further ado, I'll go through the seats region by region:

Mid & West Wales

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Brecon & Radnorshire	LD Hold
Carmarthen E & Dinefwr	PC Hold
Carmarthen W & P'shire S	LAB Gain
Ceredigion	PC Hold
Dwyfor Meirionnydd	PC Hold
Llanelli	PC Hold
Montgomeryshire	CON Gain
Preseli Pembrokeshire	LAB Gain

This region is by far the most contentious in terms of how the constituency seats will fall and I think it's quite likely one of those calls will be wrong. The key issue will be whether the AMS system will cover me and leave the overall seat distribution in Mid & West Wales the same.

I'll start with the easy-ier seats and you won't find many people suggest that Plaid Cymru will lose Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Ceredigion or Dwyfor Meirionnydd. The Liberal Democrats losing Brecon & Radnorshire is more likely, but as their incumbent AM is their Assembly leader Kirsty Williams it will be a disastrous night if they lost this to the Conservatives.

Now on to the four seats we have been sitting on the fence with in recent weeks. Llanelli is a seat that seemed quite comfortable for Plaid until March when the started to slip in the polls. They have recovered slightly from their low point and that has persuaded me that they should just hold off Labour. Their incumbent AM Helen Mary Jones is standing so that should help their cause, but it's worth remembering she herself lost this constituency in 2003. I expect this to be very tight as Labour would narrowly gain this on uniform swing.

Presili Pembrokeshire has been sitting in our Labour column since the start of the campaign and as the Conservatives have failed to make any progress in the final polls they have to go into polling day as second favourites. The other constituency seat the Tories are defending in this region is Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South and in my opinion this is THE seat to watch in Wales. When I initially previewed the constituency I found it quite easy to give reasons why any one of the Conservatives, Labour or Plaid could win. Since then I have heard from a number of sources that the Tories are not looking competitive and they seem likely to lose the seat. Labour take this quite easily on uniform swing but the Plaid candidate is the popular regional AM Nerys Evans. She is strong in the Carmarthen part of the seat and could produce one of the upsets of the night.

Finally for this region; Montgomeryshire. In vain I have been hoping for some kind of movement in the polling for either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats to put this beyond doubt but, alas, they are both at roughly the same level they were at the turn of the year. So, we'll have to go one way or another and I've plumbed for the Tories. Although the Lib Dems hold this on uniform swing their seats are always more vulnerable when they are open. In addition, Lembit Opik suffered a huge swing against him in the equivalent Westminster seat last May which shows the area is quite prepared to reject the Lib Dems in what has traditionally been one of their strongholds.

With those constituency calls here is how I think the regional seats will fall:

Party	Const. Seats	Add. Members	Total Members	Change on 2007
Labour	2	2	4	+2
Plaid Cymru	4	0	4	-1
Conservatives	1	2	3	-
Lib. Dems.	1	0	1	-1

Seat 1: Joyce Watson (LAB); Seat 2: Nick Bourne (CON); Seat 3: Rebecca Evans (LAB); Seat 4: Lisa Francis (CON).

If Plaid Cymru win four constituencies they aren't really in contention for a regional seat, based on the polls. Similarly, the Liberal Democrats do not look likely to receive a high enough share of the vote to win a seat if they hold Brecon & Radnorshire. So, if our constituency calls are right we are left in a big window where Labour and the Conservatives share the regional seats. In fact, either party would have to outperform the polling by some way to win a third seat. Labour need to virtually double their regional vote share from 2007 to net 3 seats and the Tories need a, quite frankly, ridiculous showing on the list to win a deny Labour a second seat. If the Tories did do that well you would think they would hold their constituency seats at the same time, which would reduce their chances of taking regional seats.

If we have got our calls in Llanelli or Presili Pembrokeshire wrong the overall allocation will remain the same (barring the regional vote shares being wildly out). The two key seats are Montgomeryshire and, more importantly to the question of whether Labour can win a majority, Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South. Our forecast gives Labour two net gains on 2007, which would be a significant step towards that magically figure of 31. If Nerys Evans managed a Plaid victory in Carmarthen the Labour could struggle to get an overall majority. If the Liberal Democrats hold Montgomeryshire the Tories will make a net loss in this region. It's hard to see Labour failing to make one net gain in Mid & West Wales.

It is probably worth mentioning (before anyone else does) UKIP's chances of a regional seat. In the last YouGov poll they were on 7% in this region's sub-set and Harry's forecast showed them winning a seat here. The effective threshold is likely to be around that figure so I think it will be tough, and I think they'll fall just short.

North Wales

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Aberconwy	LAB Gain
Alyn & Deeside	LAB Hold
Arfon	PC Hold
Clwyd South	LAB Hold
Clwyd West	LAB Gain
Delyn	LAB Hold
Vale of Clwyd	LAB Hold
Wrexham	LAB Hold
Ynys Mons	PC Hold

Although some of these seats may be closer than expected the really big call in this region is Aberconwy. In stark contrast to Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South it's easy to find reasons why Plaid Cymru, Labour and the Conservatives WON'T win this seat. As someone has to, I've gone for Labour. This is largely because I don't think Plaid will be able to hold with their incumbent AM standing down and the Tories do not show any sign of increasing their vote. Of course, local factors have a bigger effect in Welsh elections than most so a Tory gain is certainly not out of the question but on Uniform swing Labour comfortably beat the Conservatives here.

I also have Labour gaining Clwyd West and as they do so very easily on uniform swing projections this is quite a comfortable call.

So barring any surprises my projection for the regional and total seats are:

Party	Const. Seats	Add. Members	Total Members	Change on 2007
Labour	7	0	7	+2
Plaid Cymru	2	1	3	-1
Conservatives	0	3	3	-
Lib. Dems.	0	0	0	-1

Seat 1: Mark Isherwood (CON); Seat 2: Antoinette Sandback (CON); Seat 3: Julian Thompson-Hill (CON); Seat 4: Llyr Huws Gruffydd (PC).

Labour are likely to win too many constituency seats to be in contention for a list seat. The Liberal Democrats currently have a regional seat in North Wales, which is held by Eleanor Burnham, but their polling indicates they are going to struggle to hang on to this. Burnham isn't even the lead candidate for the Liberal Democrats so she is very unlikely to be heading back to Cardiff Bay.

Without any constituencies the Tories are entitled to three regional seats unless they slip significantly below 20% of the vote share. As this doesn't look likely they should be compensated for their likely loss in Clywd West to Labour. Plaid, however, are not likely to claw back a seat if they lose in Aberconwy and so they are set for a net loss here. If they do hold Aberconwy the battle for the final list seat will be very tight between Plaid, Labour and the Tories so there is a possibility the Welsh Nationalists could end up with the same number of seats in North Wales as they did in 2007. If the Tories manage to gain Aberconwy it would represent a net gain for them at Plaid's expense.

As Labour are likely to win more constituency seats than their d'Hont entitlement, victories in the two key marginals are very important in their quest for an overall majority.

Also, this is another region where UKIP are in with a shout of a regional seat. In my opinion, their chances here are largely dependent on how the constituency seats fall. They look likely to beat the Liberal Democrats to fourth here but the effective threshold could be a problem. If Labour win 7 constituencies UKIP would need to double the 4% they polled here in 2007 to be sure of a seat. Not impossible, but quite difficult. However, if Labour fail in one of the seats then 6% could suffice which is a much more manageable figure for the anti-EU party. In the last YouGov poll UKIP are down as 11% for the North Wales region and although I doubt they'll manage that on the day I think they have a better chance here than in Mid & West Wales.

South Wales Central

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Cardiff Central	LD Hold
Cardiff North	LAB Gain
Cardiff South & Penarth	LAB Hold
Cardiff West	LAB Hold
Cynon Valley	LAB Hold
Pontypridd	LAB Hold
Rhondda	LAB Hold
Vale of Glamorgan	LAB Hold

Labour have two key target seats in South Wales Central but I think they will only manage one gain. In Cardiff North
Labour have a very strong candidate and they win the seat on uniform swing projections so it is difficult to see the Conservatives holding. However, in Cardiff Central they need a swing of almost 15% from the Liberal Democrats in an area where the Lib Dems are strong locally. The constituency contains a high percentage of students but it is easy to overstate the impact they will have. I think Labour will get close but I fancy the Liberal Democrats to just hold them off, despite the fact their incumbent AM is not standing.

Here are the regional and total seat projections for South Wales Central:

Party	Const. Seats	Add. Members	Total Members	Change on 2007
Labour	7	0	7	+1
Plaid Cymru	0	1	1	-1
Conservatives	0	3	3	-
Lib. Dems.	1	0	1	-

Seat 1: Andrew Davies (CON); Seat 2: Leanne Wood (PC); Seat 3: David Melding (CON); Seat 4: Lyn Hudson (CON).

With seven constituency seats Labour will need to secure half the regional vote to win a list seat. The Liberal Democrats are also unlikely to win a regional seat if they hold Cardiff Central but they are polling well enough to get compensated for that loss on the list.

This leaves the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru battling it out for the list seats and if the Tories lose Cardiff Central they will be virtually guaranteed two regional AMs. However, Plaid Cymru run them close for the final seat so the two parties could well split the regional seats two apiece. The region gets interesting if Labour fail to take either target seat as they would then be in contention for a list seat. On current polling they would just do that but they will need to poll 45% to make sure. Winning any seven seats in this region would represent a net gain on the 2007 result for Labour and, obviously, taking all eight constituencies would bag them two.

I have heard that the Greens are hoping to spring a surprise in South Wales Central and they have been targeting the region. As their national polling has stood still I can't say I'm convinced but I can tell you they will need roughly 7% to win a seat, which would be almost double what they polled in 2007.

South Wales East

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Blaenau Gwent	LAB Gain
Caerphilly	LAB Hold
Islwyn	LAB Hold
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney	LAB Hold
Monmouth	CON Hold
Newport East	LAB Hold
Newport West	LAB Hold
Torfaen	LAB Hold

In South Wales East Labour dominate in the constituencies but there is one seat that could produce a shock. Throughout the campaign I have heard that the ex-Labour MP Ron Davies is doing very well in Caerphilly running as Plaid Cymru's candidate and he could unseat the sitting Labour AM. Furthermore, on Tuesday a bizarre story emerged that Labour's current MP for Caerphilly Wayne David has been removing Plaid Cymru signs from people's gardens. To be fair to David, he is allegedly lying to the residents first by telling them it is illegal to put up the signs up, to gain their misguided consent, before he takes them. I'd prefer to imagine him tiptoeing from house to house in the dead of night…!

The key thing to take from this is that Labour are clearly rattled by Davies as it could well be close. I still think it will be tough for Plaid to gain this against the national swing but stranger things have happened.

The only other constituency worthy of note is Blaenau Gwent, which is sure to head home to Labour as the Independent presence in the constituency has waned.

Here is how I think the regional seats will fall:

Party	Const. Seats	Add. Members	Total Members	Change on 2007
Labour	7	0	7	+1
Plaid Cymru	0	1	1	-1
Conservatives	1	1	2	-
Lib. Dems.	0	1	1	-
UKIP	0	1	1	+1

Seat 1: Jocelyn Davies (PC); Seat 2: William Graham (CON); Seat 3: Veronica German (LD); Seat 4: David Rowlands (UKIP).

On seven constituency seats Labour are not really in contention for a list seat, however the good news is that if they lost Caerphilly the polling evidence would suggest they would be compensated for this loss on the list. The big news in this region is the very real possibility UKIP could win a regional seat here. They could take the final seat with less than 6.5% of the regional vote, which would be a 2% increase on their 2007 result. The problem with that is the final berth is very competitive with all the parties bar the Liberal Democrats in with a shout. 7% or above should secure the anti-EU party their first Assembly Member and as the polling stands it is Plaid Cymru who would make the net loss.

South Wales West

Constituency	B-V.co.uk
Aberavon	LAB Hold
Bridgend	LAB Hold
Gower	LAB Hold
Neath	LAB Hold
Ogmore	LAB Hold
Swansea East	LAB Hold
Swansea West	LAB Hold

The final region is Wales is by far the easiest to analyse. Labour will almost certainly hold all the constituencies so we might as well move on to the List:

Party	Const. Seats	Add. Members	Total Members	Change on 2007
Labour	7	0	7	-
Plaid Cymru	0	2	2	-
Conservatives	0	1	1	-
Lib. Dems.	0	1	1	-

Seat 1: Bethan Jenkins (PC); Seat 2: Suzy Davies (CON); Seat 3: Peter Black (LD); Seat 4: Dai Lloyd (PC).

With all seven constituencies Labour are not in contention for a regional seat. On current polling the Liberal Democrats should hold their regional seat but they need to stay above 7% to do so. The biggest unknown in this region is who will pick up the final list seat. Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives are in contention and it will come down to who gets a higher share of the vote.

So after all that, the Final Forecast is:

	2007	B-V.co.uk	+/-
Labour	26	32	+6
Plaid Cymru	15	11	-4
Conservatives	12	12	-
Lib. Dems.	6	4	-2
Independent	1	0	-1
UKIP	0	1	+1

The crucial part of the forecast is that we are still projecting Labour to secure an overall majority, albeit a small one. Also, UKIP winning their first seat in the Welsh Assembly would be a significant step for the party. Plaid Cymru are the big losers in this but on the final polling figures they just miss out on list seats in a couple of regions, so they could remain as the second largest party.

There are a few key seats to look out for to see if Labour can get to their coveted overall majority. They need to gain two constituencies in Mid & West Wales with Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South the most likely. Llanelli is also a possibility but winning all three will not give Labour another seat overall as they would lose out on the regional list. The other two important seats to keep an eye out for are in North Wales where Labour need to win both Clwyd West and Aberconwy to get a majority. Alternatively they would require both target seats in Cardiff, which is probably more difficult.

Thankfully, we don't have long to find out how wrong I am!

There will be a Scottish Forecast going up later on and we can only apologise that a combination of getting behind and unforeseen circumstances has delayed our coverage on that election.