A Look @: West Scotland (Part III)

This post looks at the List seats in the region. To find the constituency seats in the centre of the region click here, and the east and west here.

Here is the notional 2007 result for this regional list:

Party	Const. Seats	Region Votes	Region Votes %	Add. Members	Total Members
Labour	8	101546	34.6%	0	8
SNP	1	83867	28.5%	4	5
Conservative	1	43324	14.7%	2	3
Lib. Dem.	0	23965	8.2%	1	1
Green	0	8700	3%	0	0
Senior Citizen	2.0%	SLP			0.6%
Solidarity	1.8%	Scottish Unionist			0.5%
Christian Party	1.4%	UKIP			0.3%
BNP	1.2%	Scottish Voice			0.2%
Christian Peoples	1.1%	Jacobite Party			0.2%
Save NHS	1%	Socialist Equality Party			0.05%
Socialist Party	0.6%
Additional Members
1. Stewart Maxwell			2. Gil Paterson
3. Ross Finnie			4. Annabel Goldie
5. Bill Wilson			6. Stuart McMillan
7. Jackson Carlaw

As you can see the allocation of the regional seats were relatively unchanged by the boundary review despite the fact one of the constituencies has notionally changed hands. This is because that constituency has gone from Labour to the Conservatives and as that still leaves Labour with eight constituencies they are over represented in this region. The notional gain for the Conservatives does mean their second list seat is more vulnerable than it was in 2007.

In the constituency posts I tried to keep the number of seats in the Too Close column to a minimum as polls open in less than 24 hours. Still, I couldn't bring myself to call two of them and so this post will investigate how they could affect the eventual make-up of the Scottish Parliament. The two constituencies I felt were too tight are Eastwood and Cunninghame South. Among the more controversial calls is Dumbarton, which I've popped in the SNP column as a gain from Labour. It's a shame there isn't more time to canvass opinion of these seats but unfortunately our tight timetable was pushed off schedule last week and we'll have to go with what we have.

Eastwood is the notional gain for the Conservatives that is alluded to above. The sitting Labour MSP has the unenviable task of overturning a 3500 vote notional majority to keep his job but on recent polling that is possible. In Cunninghame South the SNP require a 4.7% swing to gain the seat from Labour but as this is a relatively small constituency and within reach on current Uniform Swing projections so it is very much in play. I'll go through the scenarios from a good night for Labour to a bad one.

As mentioned before we are averaging the regional voting intentions from recent polls by what we regard as established companies. This post is based on the Mori and YouGov polls from 21^st April. The final forecast will recalculate these seats based on the final polling expected to be released today.

So, if Labour win both constituencies then how would the regional seats break:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	8	35.9	0	8
SNP	2	38.0	4	6
Conservatives	0	11.8	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 3: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 4: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 5: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 6: Jackson Carlaw (CON), Seat 7: Steen Parish (GRN).

In this scenario the first seat would go to the SNP and so their lead candidate Stewart Maxwell would take the first seat and thus win a third term in the Scottish Parliament. Maxwell was their lead candidate in the 2007 election as well. The Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie would win the second seat and secure a fourth term at Holyrood. The third seat is allocated to the SNP but we have assumed their #2 candidate Kenneth Gibson will hold his Cunninghame North constituency Derek Mackay takes the seat. The leader of Renfrewshire Council is a new addition to the Nationalist's list this year and the 33 year old is thought of highly within the party. Even if Gibson loses his constituency seat at number three on the SNP regional list Mackay is very likely to win a seat in Parliament.

The SNP continue to pick up regional seats under this scenario and Gil Paterson is next in line. I don't think he'll be able to gain the Clydebank & Milngavie constituency for his party but Paterson looks set to win a second term as a regional MSP, despite falling two places in the list. The fifth seat would also go to the SNP and Fiona McLeod, who has moved up a place in the SNP list from 2007, would enter the Scottish Parliament. She is also contesting the Stathkelvin & Bearsden constituency, but it won't be an easy task to defeat the Labour incumbent there.

Finally we come to a potential winner from another party as the sixth seat in this scenario goes to the Conservative's #2 candidate Jackson Carlaw. He was first elected as a West of Scotland regional MSP in 2007 and although his party seem to have lost ground since then he should hang on to his seat. The really big news on the West Scotland list is that on current polling the Greens are on course to pick up a seat from the Liberal Democrats. In fact, on the Britain-Votes seat calculator there is nothing between them and the Conservatives in the race for the sixth seat. The Greens' lead candidate is Steen Parish and he'll be hoping his party can maintain its momentum and keep ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

With Labour winning far too many constituencies to compete for the regional seats and the Liberal Democrats vote share falling so low the final seat is actually quite comfortable for the Greens. They take it well ahead of the SNPs #6 candidate Stuart McMillan, who is a current MSP for the region. The sole Liberal Democrats MSP for the West of Scotland Ross Finnie is still their lead candidate but he will need a sharp upturn in his party's fortunes if he is to win re-election. The other current MSP who would not win under this scenario is the SNP's Bill Wilson, who has opted to stand on the Lothians list instead.

So, what happens of the SNP gain Cunninghame South and Labour win Eastwood?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	35.9	0	7
SNP	3	38.0	4	7
Conservatives	0	11.8	2	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 2: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 3: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 4: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 5: Jackson Carlaw (CON), Seat 6: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 7: Fiona McLeod (SNP).

The simple answer is pretty much the same as above. The order is a bit different but the same seven would head to Holyrood as the West Scotland regional MSPs. Of course, the big difference to the shape of the Parliament is that the SNP would score a tangible gain over Labour as their success in the constituency does not lose them a seat in the regional list.

Then there is the scenario where the Conservatives win Eastwood but Labour hold off the SNP in Cunninghame South:

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	7	35.9	0	7
SNP	2	38.0	5	7
Conservatives	1	11.8	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 3: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 4: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 5: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 6: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 7: Stuart McMillan (SNP).

Under this scenario the vote share currently projected for the SNP would still net them seven seats. The constituency gain for the Conservatives wouldn't be reflected in the total seats as they then lose a regional seat to the SNP. Therefore the Conservative MSP Jackson Carlaw will lose his seat but the SNP's Stuart McMillan sneaks back into Parliament. Labour are his closest challengers for the final seat and so their lead candidate Mary Fee would be in with a shout. In truth it is relatively comfortable on the above figures and they could cope with a 3% swing away from them.

Finally, how would the regional seats get allocated if Labour have a poor night and lose the two tight constituencies?

Party	Const. Seats	U-Swing	Regional Members	Total Members
Labour	6	35.9	1	7
SNP	3	38.0	4	7
Conservatives	1	11.8	1	2
Lib. Dems.	0	4.4	0	0
Greens	0	5.9	1	1

Seat 1: Stewart Maxwell (SNP), Seat 2: Derek Mackay (SNP), Seat 3: Gil Paterson (SNP), Seat 4: Annabel Goldie (CON), Seat 5: Steen Parish (GRN), Seat 6: Fiona McLeod (SNP), Seat 7: Mary Fee (LAB).

As you can see a further constituency loss for Labour is clawed back on the list as Mary Fee wins a regional seat at Jackson Carlaw's or Stuart McMillan's expense, depending on which way you look at it! The SNP would win the final seat on a 2% LAB>SNP swing on those figures but the Tories would have to do a lot better to take it. Essentially, if the Conservatives only poll around 12% on the regional vote then they are not going to be able to take more than two seats in total.

As for the SNP, if they manage to win one of their longer shots in the constituencies then they wouldn't really benefit overall. Strathkelvin & Bearsden and Clydebank & Milngavie are the possibilities but they would have to win both to win another overall seat at Labour's expense. As for the list personnel, Fiona McLeod and Gil Paterson are their respective candidates in those constituencies so they both have a good chance of heading to Holyrood either way. One thing is for sure, if Alex Salmond is going to get close to that coveted majority then his party will have taken a chunk out of Labour in this region.